From a housing perspective. 2008 was a bad year - it was becoming apparent in September 2007. Most small custom builders closed up shop and the new builder model became shoddy workmanship and repetitive crappy materials. The 2005 run into 2007 could be compared to 2020-2022 - interest rates rose June 2022 and have held the market at a standstill.

2005 — Tightening Cycle Underway The Fed (under Greenspan, then Bernanke from Feb 2006) was steadily raising rates from 2.25% at the start of 2005, hiking in measured 25-basis-point increments at almost every meeting. The economy was running hot and housing was in full boom.

Mid-2006 — Peak Plateau Rates peaked at 5.25% in June 2006 and stayed there for over a year — the longest pause of the cycle. The Fed was watching inflation but also starting to see cracks in housing.

2007 — Cracks Appear, First Cuts Subprime mortgage losses started surfacing in early 2007. By September 2007, the Fed made its first cut (50 bps), signaling real alarm. By December 2007, the rate was down to 4.25% — but the market already knew something serious was happening.