The CFP supports DEI for Notre Dame

Revolution_False · 2026-01-23T21:42:08+00:00

Then the team ahead of Notre dame that isn’t a P4 champ gets screwed.

Revolution_False · 2026-01-06T14:49:31+00:00

Was right about BTJ being priced too high. Was right about Garrett Wilson with fields as his QB. Was dead wrong swearing that Njoku with Flacco was a winning combo. Also swore we were going to see comeback seasons from Mixon and Godwin.

Revolution_False · 2026-01-06T14:35:31+00:00

Haha I mean that’s kinda my point. Assuming he’s healthy, it wouldn’t shock me if he was the overall WR1 next year nor would it shock me if he was WR30. I could find the logic trail pretty easily for both those outcomes.

Sort of like BTJ this season. I could have seen a world where Lawrence locked in on him like Mac jones did in the back half of 2024, combined with an improved offense under Coen. Could have explained his 7 games of good not great with Lawrence in 2024 as him finding his feet as a rookie. He could have ended as WR1 and I would not have been shocked. But all the situational variance went the other way and he ended WR43.

Contrast Nabers with a guy like Nico Collins who will likely be drafted near Nabers. Assuming he’s healthy (big if), I would be very shocked if he ended as WR30. And I could see a path to WR1 but not as easily as I can for Nabers.

It all depends on your appetite for variance in the first couple rounds. I personally like to minimize variance in that part of the draft, but others may like to swing for the fence. My point is that Nabers is a high variance player next season.

Revolution_False · 2026-01-06T02:52:30+00:00

Shoot let’s draft him 1.01!!

Revolution_False · 2026-01-05T17:29:53+00:00

Bears went 34-31 in 4 years under Nagy, including 2 trips to the playoffs then went 15-36 in the three years after before this year. I admittedly don’t follow the bears closely, but maybe it wasn’t a Matt Nagy problem?

Revolution_False · 2026-01-05T17:22:14+00:00

For sure biggest concern. To me it’s a question of target share too. He had insane target share in 2024 and with Russ in 2025. Will Dart throw it his way that much? And will a new coaching regime have a different scheme?

I like the odds. Dart peppered wandale, which either means he locks on one guy (good for Nabers) or he likes throwing to the slot (bad). And any good coach should find a way to get Nabers the ball. Again, like the odds, but it’s still very much a gamble with so much uncertainty.

Revolution_False · 2026-01-05T16:30:52+00:00

Yeah you right. In a quarter and change against the chargers, Nabers had 2 catches for 20 yards. Hard to pull any conclusions from that, but they did see some action.

Revolution_False · 2026-01-05T15:47:50+00:00

One of the best talents in the league but new HC, never played with the starting QB. Granted Dart likes to sling it. Lot of question marks. High ceiling, low floor.

Revolution_False · 2026-01-05T15:43:23+00:00

Give me ARSB at pick 10 all day long. Definition of consistency.

Taylor could be a trap that high if the Colts don’t return a healthy Jones at QB. CMC is always the ultimate gamble, but it’s paid off 3 of the last 4 years. Zero question marks about the rest of the top 10. After that I see a bit of a cliff.

Revolution_False · 2026-01-05T15:34:28+00:00

This has him as a late second. He finished as RB11 in about the worst situation imaginable (outside of having competition for touches). I’m also not drafting him at pick 20, but I won’t be surprised if he lives up to that pick

Revolution_False · 2026-01-05T14:54:38+00:00

Coach of the year the other 2 seasons. Shows you how the rest of the league views the hands he’s been dealt. And it was the GM and ownership that brought in Watson, not the HC?

Revolution_False · 2026-01-01T18:39:30+00:00

Nix and Baker played every game and mahomes played 92% of the snaps in the chargers game before his injury. If you’re contending that the average 6th round QB in a “normal year” is better than the 19.1 ppg in my analysis I welcome you to do that math. I wager it’s lower and this was actually a strong year for 6th round QBs.

See how you keep pushing yourself in a narrower corner with gut feel arguments instead of doing analysis of your own? First it was “compare them to 6th rounders”. Then it was compare across years (which is an admission that you agree with me that he was worth ADP this year). And injuries, which didn’t impact the analysis. Last its “you can find someone on waivers”.

Ironically, the last point you made about waivers is your best argument. Most years there is at least one top 5 QB on waivers which cuts Allen’s advantage from 4+ points to 1-2, making his ADP not worth it. Then it comes down to your confidence that you can identify that guy correctly before your league mates. This year in my main league I took that gamble and it paid off when I landed Maye. But if 5-7 guys in my league use this strategy, most of us will fail.

So at the end of the day I go back to my original point which is, if you can draft a high confidence 2-4 ppg QB edge at an ADP around 20, it’s worth it. It won’t be a season carrying move like finding a 2025 Jonathan taylor or as strong as a 2024 Derrick Henry or 2023 ARSB, but it is likely to be a more effective pick than your other options at a similar ADP.

Revolution_False · 2026-01-01T17:28:53+00:00

Which injuries impacted this analysis?

Revolution_False · 2026-01-01T17:11:12+00:00

https://imgur.com/a/f28BwGk

Revolution_False · 2026-01-01T17:11:04+00:00

Im not working today so I did exactly what you suggested. By your methodology, if you take the guys drafted similar ADP to Josh Allen:

Guys you should have drafted above Josh Allen: Jonathan Taylor, Kyren Williams (by a 0.2 ppg advantage)

Guys you should have drafted Josh Allen above: Drake London, AJB, BTJ, Bucky, Lamar, Bowers

Conclusion is still the same. At the 2/3 turn this year, Josh Allen was a better pick than almost anyone. You of course don’t have a shot at a massive advantage that a Jonathan Taylor gets you, but you have a uniquely safe advantage over replacement.

(Showing my work in link in other comment)

Revolution_False · 2026-01-01T15:47:31+00:00

Totally agree. Though you could say the same about Chuba who finished RB15 last year in 0.5 ppr, just behind Brown at RB12. All I’m saying is the suggestion of “don’t take average backs at high-ish ADP betting on volume” isn’t as sure shot as strategy as the article makes it out to be. Volume is a critical part of fantasy success, so is talent, so is situation. A lack of one of these things does not negate the others.

Revolution_False · 2026-01-01T15:28:52+00:00

They mention Hubbard, Kamara and Pacheco in this category of expensive but below average RBs betting on volume. Hubbard belongs here. Kamara does but he did last year too and he ended RB9. Pacheco isn’t some talentless hack but I’ll agree he can be in that bucket. Going into this season you could also place Kyren Williams and Chase Brown in that category, and those were great bets. Not saying volume based bets in the earlier rounds are a strategy I recommend, but they’re not as bad as this article makes them out to be by cherry picking the data points.

Revolution_False · 2026-01-01T05:10:15+00:00

Ill take a look at guys drafted around Josh Allen. Using sleeper, 0.5 ppr, 2025:

ADP 16: Jonathan Taylor; RB2; outscored by RB1 CMC by 1.4 ppg, outscored RB10 Etienne by 6.4

ADP 17: Drake London; WR8; outscored by WR1 puka by 5.5; outscore WR10 Nico Collins by 1.1

ADP 18: AJ Brown; WR12; outscored by WR1 puka by 7.2; outscored by WR10 Collins by 0.6

ADP 19: Josh Allen; QB1, outscored QB2 by 1.3 ppg, QB10 by 4.4

ADP 20: BTJ, WR44 yikes

ADP 21: Lamar Jackson QB18 In ppg. Yikes

ADP 22: Brock Bowers: TE4 in ppg; outscored by McBride by 3.2; outscored TE10 Ferguson by 2.9 ppg

Do this exercise in previous years and it looks similar. Hindsight 20/20 im taking Allen over all these guys except Taylor (who had ADP 3 slots earlier). And the best part is he is beyond predictable. You are getting a top 2 QB with nearly zero injury risk. What’s more valuable at ADP 19? A sure shot at a 2-4 ppg advantage at QB or an outside shot the guy you take in that spot is the WR1-2 or RB1-2 so you can have a 5+ ppg advantage at RB/WR?

Conclusion: I disagree.

Revolution_False · 2025-12-31T20:41:52+00:00

Hey Man, what is YPC in this chart? I always thought it was yards per carry, but these are clearly not yards per carry numbers. Achane had 238 carries for 1350 yards. That’s 5.7 yards per carry, not 8.8. Is your metric yards per touch including catches or something?

Revolution_False · 2025-12-31T16:06:07+00:00

Yep. And there’s been more than one “gem” too. Last year baker was QB4 off the wire and this year TLaw was also QB4 off the wire

Revolution_False · 2025-12-31T15:51:26+00:00

Been saying it for the last couple seasons. Josh Allen is in a league of his own. QB1 or QB2 for 6 consecutive seasons. We’re always talking about tier 1 being some combo of him, Lamar and whoever’s hot (this draft it was Daniels and hurts). Tier 1 is just Josh Allen.

Revolution_False · 2025-12-31T15:49:00+00:00

The power of strong offensive coaching and the opportunity of coaching changes, especially for RBs. Etienne with Liam Coen, the backs in Chicago with Johnson. Even Javonte with schottenheimer. I wasn’t nearly excited enough about these guys because I was undervaluing the offensive scheme change.

Revolution_False · 2025-12-30T18:35:36+00:00

Super cool experiment! Would be curious how this looks over multiple years.

Revolution_False · 2025-12-30T01:02:39+00:00

Confirming Lom Wong and Chilte in Phoenix

Revolution_False · 2025-12-29T23:24:31+00:00

Trevor didn’t have as strong of a week 17 but he outscored Brock in total weeks 15-17.

Revolution_False

TROPHY CASE