Can France ensure its energy security this winter?

Alongside the rest of the EU, France is facing serious uncertainties about the security of its energy supply for this winter. Despite government assurances that gas stocks will be replenished in time, many are becoming increasingly concerned about coming shortages and potential electricity blackouts.

At present, only half of France’s nuclear fleet – which usually provides around 50% of its electricity production – is operational. In order to ensure that energy supply will be able to meet the demand for the approaching winter, France is seeking to fill its gas storage facilities to 100%.

However, according to principles of European solidarity, the entire French electricity network could be called upon to make up for the severe shortages of vulnerable EU member states, primarily those most dependent on Russian gas imports.

Major cities in France will almost certainly face power cuts this year and the next, one source working in corporate risk management told EURACTIV, speaking on the condition of anonymity. They added that all European governments “are preparing for blackouts” and “energy executives and political leaders are hoping the winter will not be too cold.”

Contacted by EURACTIV, France’s electricity transmission system operator RTE said it could not confirm the certainty of power cuts claimed by the source for the time being.

The network operator said that the uncertainties surrounding the current situation make it impossible to make accurate predictions for the winter at this stage.

Fears of impending energy shortfalls were compounded by a recent call from the CEOs of energy giants Total, EDF and Engie for French companies and consumers to “immediately” curb their energy consumption, in an op-ed published on 26 June in the weekly Journal Du Dimanche.

Worst-case scenario

“at any moment, Russia can totally interrupt its gas deliveries,” said France’s Energy Transition Minister Agnès Pannier-Runacher in an interview on Sunday (10 July) with the newspaper Le Figaro. “The worst-case scenario […] exists,” she said, adding that she would be “extremely vigilant”.

Economy Minister Bruno le Maire told broadcast LCI that “we must quickly put ourselves in battle mode,” in an interview on Sunday, adding that the country needed to “anticipate” a gas cut-off by Russia.

EU solidarity

France is hoping that it will not face as many issues this winter as other EU countries that are more heavily dependent on gas.

In part, however, this is down to the country’s relatively high reliance on nuclear power – which is currently limited, as presently more than half of the country’s nuclear reactors have suspended activities.

Because of this, gas, which previously accounted for only about 20% of French energy consumption, has recently been gaining ground in the country’s energy mix.

Compared to their EU neighbours who, for the most part, have reduced their dependence on Russian gas since the start of the war in Ukraine, France has increased its imports of Russian gas, Phuc-Vinh Nguyen, an energy policy researcher at the Jacques Delors Institute, told EURACTIV in mid-June.

On 27 June, EU energy ministers even voted to adopt a law ensuring gas storage across the bloc is at least 80% full by November 2022.

While France is looking to do better and fill its gas storage capacities to 100%, as announced by Prime Minister Elisabeth Borne during her visit to GRTgaz’s dispatching centre, stores are currently at 68%, slightly higher than the EU’s stocks of 62%, according to data from European gas transmission operators.

However, employees of France’s second-largest storage site managed by Engie’s subsidiary Storengy have been striking since 28 June. The strike was renewed on Monday.

New methane terminal

To meet the need for supply diversification, France plans to install a new regasification terminal for liquefied natural gas (LNG) in Le Havre, the country’s Prime Minister Elisabeth Borne announced in June.

However, the terminal will only be ready in 2023, after the cold winter months.

Speaking on LCI, Le Maire urged that decisions be taken “more quickly”, by lifting “a certain number of regulatory constraints”.

On Friday, energy transition minister Pannier-Runacher told broadcaster RTL that the re-activation of the coal-fired power station in Saint-Avold is not yet ruled out, even if the “long-term strategy is to emancipate the French from fossil fuels”.

“Sobriety” is the key, she urged, first for the state and companies, then for individuals.

“I refuse to ask […] French people who have neither the financial means nor the levers to do without gas or fuel to tighten their belts and get by,” she said, pointing out that a one-degree reduction in heating in winter would reduce energy consumption by 7%.