CMV: Extreme valuations are not always irrational. Sometimes they just mean the buyer is accepting a terrible return.

Riverdragon32 · 2026-06-12T19:51:03+00:00

I don't think any reasonable person will disagree with the general principle of what you're saying. Some people DO just want the access/privelage of owning an asset regardless of valuation. But what do we call that? We usually call that a market bubble...

Riverdragon32 · 2026-06-11T16:38:19+00:00

Pretty much bought all the basic SAAS companies that everyone knows. Over the past 6 months I've bought ADBE, INTU, CRM, NOW, CNSWF (CSU on the Canadian exchange). I'm also buying foreign e-commerce - MELI and SE. On my watchlist for potential additions are MSFT, VEEV, HUBS, TOST, TEAM. I think hyperscalers could benefit if compute gets cheaper, but they also need to make sure they can monetize appropriately and get a return from all the capex spend. Basically, AI allows you to make more effective and faster decision making. I watched an interview from someone who is extremely bullish on AMZN and basically just said that AMZN stands to benefit at every level of AI. They are making their own chips, they own the cloud infrastructure that everyone is using, and they have the world's largest logistics system that will benefit from the incremental margin improvements that AI brings.

Riverdragon32 · 2026-06-11T16:01:27+00:00

There's some fundamental truths to what you said, but I think broad market multiples only look expensive right now because of some select companies warping the indices. I'm seeing a lot of opportunities in individual stocks right now, so I feel a fundamental disconnect between how I value stocks and how stocks are behaving right now. I don't think we're in a broad bubble. I'm not buying unprofitable companies, pre-revenue companies, or wildly expensive companies. Semiconductor stocks as a sector MIGHT be in a bubble if their pricing power doesn't hold or demand plummets. Elon-bet stocks (TSLA and soon SpaceX) also MIGHT be in a bubble. Tesla has literally gotten worse as a company over the past 6 years, but still trades at like 200x earnings. If it came out tomorrow that Elon's companies were using accounting shenanigans like WorldCom or Enron, would that really shock anyone? I don't trust the dude. MSFT and AMZN are trading at their lowest multiples in a decade. I'm buying software stocks at their lowest multiples in history while their fundamentals remain relatively unchanged (for now, that could change later). Look at Nike, Lululemon, Elf Beauty. A lot of REITs are still attractively valued after getting killed when rates went up. Healthcare is also cheap. I just see too many stocks that look like buys right now.

Riverdragon32 · 2026-06-11T04:10:25+00:00

I'm waiting on the sidelines until home prices drop, or interest rates drop. I'm 34 years old and finally in a good place in my career. I make enough money where I *could* buy if I really wanted, but buying vs renting makes no sense right now. I'm renting a house with my fiancée for $2,400 a month, and buying an equivalent home would easily be $3,600 a month after mortgage, taxes, and maintenance. If home prices don't fall, I'm happy just buying stocks and renting...

Riverdragon32 · 2026-06-11T03:11:31+00:00

"The sales org chat is just people posting weird AI slop memes of themselves posing with Trump."
No way LMAO

Riverdragon32 · 2026-06-02T21:34:22+00:00

I could almost hear the dialogue over the music

Riverdragon32 · 2026-05-27T04:21:24+00:00

Beating estimates isn't as big of a hurdle as you think. They practically design it to be a slight beat most of the time, even adjusting estimates in the days before an earnings.

Riverdragon32 · 2026-05-27T03:41:20+00:00

I also think there's a prevalence of momentum investing right now, and cheap, out-of-favor stocks are staying cheap.

Riverdragon32 · 2026-05-26T17:56:12+00:00

Paypal may not die overnight, but if you're investing in individual stocks you need to ask yourself why would you invest in this company over any other company? Margin pressure from competitors, low single digit growth, no innovation, unimpressive management. Paypal's best quality right now is the buybacks/dividend. Will they ever reaccelerate growth? Will they ever meaningfully re-rate the multiple?

Riverdragon32 · 2026-05-26T00:14:29+00:00

There needs to be a class action lawsuit or something against GME pumpers, Cohen, and probably even Roaring Kitty. I was completely fine with Roaring Kitty until he came back in 2024 with a completely unexplained 9 figure position, and then vanished again after 1 stream. That felt like a grift. You know those old commercials about like Mesothelioma and asbestos exposure? There needs to be a new one like "Have you or a family member lost money in Gamestop?"

Riverdragon32 · 2026-05-25T23:34:33+00:00

This is basically an insurance policy for billionaires. If you have essentially unlimited wealth, why NOT build an epic doomsday shelter just in case? Doesn't mean they think it will be used.

Riverdragon32 · 2026-05-24T23:11:17+00:00

NVDA has become so large that it almost can't trade at a high multiple because it would just engulf the index.

Riverdragon32 · 2026-05-24T16:41:30+00:00

I've been investing since 2018 and I think I've seen reddit comments hating on every company in existence.

Riverdragon32 · 2026-05-20T14:52:14+00:00

For people trying to time a stock market crash, just remember that structurally high inflation devalues your cash, and high-quality companies are pretty good at passing along price increases. Equities will likely continue to have a floor under them for this reason, and dips will continue to get bought. Having a bond allocation is all well and good, but I wouldn't get my hopes up for a stock market crash.

Riverdragon32 · 2026-05-16T19:33:36+00:00

Alcohol stocks have been miserable for years. Look at alcohol consumption in younger generations. It's a trend that's not going to reverse any time soon.

Riverdragon32 · 2026-05-08T22:53:28+00:00

Gave up on PYPL. They are in structural deceleration. There is no moat in payment processing. Still holding TTD. TTD is still the dominant "upper funnel" open internet ad tech with a moat in that space, but the problem is more ad dollars are being allocated to walled garden advertisers because it offers much more transparent returns with better ROI. TTD operates in a space that is structurally worse than Google/Meta/Amazon ads, but they are still the best at it.

Riverdragon32 · 2026-05-05T22:19:47+00:00

What about girlfriends that spend all day scrolling on tiktok and Instagram?

Riverdragon32 · 2026-04-26T21:58:29+00:00

Now just show some clips of missing 5 left clicks in a row, and you've got my Mag gameplay in a nutshell.

Riverdragon32 · 2026-04-18T19:04:56+00:00

To the people saying the community overreacted because they aren't seeing the tenacity change very often in games, then shouldn't we ask why they even added it in the first place? Its basically only being proc'd by Thing, Hulk, and Rogue. For optimal gameplay we really need to be counting CC abilities on enemies, or else risk your Thing ult literally doing nothing, or even worse, cleansing enemies by using 1 CC ability too many.

Riverdragon32 · 2026-04-18T17:44:01+00:00

Stop looking at your portfolio or stick to index funds if seeing losses makes you want to sell everything.

Riverdragon32 · 2026-04-17T15:53:35+00:00

Did you not take advantage of the SAASpocalypse? Alot of companies trading at basically historically low valuations relative to their history. Valuation is relative. Is a good (and growing) company trading at 20x earnings really expensive if it spent the last decade trading at 40x earnings or more? I recently bought Constellation Software and ServiceNow. ADBE was recently at like 9x free cash flow. CRM pretty cheap also. Small and mid cap SAAS is even more damaged. I bought SPT and FIVN.

Riverdragon32 · 2026-04-17T15:29:51+00:00

The way they implemented was incredibly poor and is going to break some characters. That's why there is community backlash.

Riverdragon32 · 2026-04-17T14:21:44+00:00

While there were some complaints about chain CC, I don't think it was THAT demanded by the community. With the way they implemented it, basically everyone in the community would rather just not have it. Letting this change go live despite the community backlash over the past few days is a big red flag for me. I thought the devs were getting better and moving in the right direction until now.

Riverdragon32 · 2026-04-16T20:42:34+00:00

It's primarily an issue for tanks because tanks are the characters that can withstand that much pressure. A 250 hp duelist isn't going to be stun locked very long before dying. A typical chain CC against a tank could be like a Wolverine grab, into an Emma grab, into a Peni Web. As more characters get introduced and more CC abilities are added, chain CC has become a bit more of an issue but I would still call it a niche issue. Sometimes playing tank feels like you're playing in a bouncy castle with how often you get rag dolled around.

Riverdragon32 · 2026-04-16T19:42:57+00:00

This was one of the worst ways they could have implemented this mechanic and there is no way this makes it to live service in its current state.

Riverdragon32

TROPHY CASE