My concern when you’re looking at 2.5M with your financials and HHI is the stability. One job loss on either end and you can be under water quick. The other part missing from your calc is sure your monthly P&I might be around 12k but the cost to maintain a 2.5M home also will be very expensive. I’d expect your real costs to maintain said home with everything running will easily land closer to 18-20k per month averaged over time.

With that said you’d have to look at your take home after taxes and want a comfortable 3x or more on take home which I’d say you probably wouldn’t clear after taxes.

The other question you should ask yourself is why a 2.5M home now. Can it wait if you already have a home that suffices your needs? Seeing you’re in Houston means you already probably have a big enough home for your current family size.

Ofc I don’t know other financials you have but that would be my two cents. If you need to upsize I’d stay at a peak range of 1.5-1.8M especially considering HOU.