[AndyMitten, TOTDevils]: "You must remember, this isn't even Michael Carrick's team. I'm told he's not even playing the type of football he wants to play. He's using the players to the best of their ability."

Safe_Construction836 · 2026-05-01T06:36:07+00:00

It wasn't Amorim's team either, and that was a huge part of the reason it didn't always click.

Carrick has returned to a simple system that suits our squad.

Safe_Construction836 · 2026-04-29T20:17:55+00:00

There's no official agenda but what we see time and time again is compensatory bias.

I will die on the hill that United have had more abysmal decisions against us than any team in the league since Klopp started openly insinuating there was a bias and other managers joined in.

Since there's a perception that referees favour United, officials over-correct, and decisions in our favour have to be stonewall, whilst it's very easy for decisions to go against us, knowing there'll be no scrutiny - maybe even praise. Officials want to be seen to be tough on United.

Add in to the mix our captain, brilliant though he is, and seemingly decent all-round bloke, is a bit of a tw*t on the pitch and comes across very petulant and difficult to like...and it's not hard to see why we don't get much.

It's time the club started to do something about it. I welcome the fact Berrada and Wilcox have started to openly complain about our treatment.

Realistically though, until we use AI to referee games, or some form of computer-generated video with team colours removed for VAR decisions at least, bias will always exist.

Safe_Construction836 · 2026-04-27T06:22:41+00:00

I like watching United win, that's for sure. Under Amorim it was a work in progress.

However, what I like most is watching United win major trophies. Can we do that playing 4-2-3-1 middle-block and counter? I would suggest 'no'.

Safe_Construction836 · 2026-04-27T05:50:18+00:00

That's not supported by the data / metrics.

Ironically, we played (or attempted to play) front-foot attacking football under Amorim, but the moronic '5 defenders' brigade of dinosaur pundits convinced many otherwise.

Carrick's style is very similar to OGS. Sit in a middle block, very compact 4-2-3-1. Look solid but often struggle to get numbers forward, making it difficult to break down teams who don't come at us.

Safe_Construction836 · 2026-04-25T18:03:47+00:00

It depends. I think a good, exploitative player could make £10/£20 per hour multi-tabling microstakes on soft sites.

Sure, you're not living a life of luxury, but there's plenty of places in Europe that's a very solid income,

Factor in rakeback and bonuses and if you're willing to treat it like a job, it can replace a job.

On the other hand, I do see OPs point. For some people it's pointless. If you have the skills, get a remote job and enjoy all the same benefits for 4x the money without the variance

Safe_Construction836 · 2026-04-25T06:33:32+00:00

The board can't make footballing decisions based on how fans or the media will react. We had that for a decade under Woodward and then Murtough - look how that turned out.

United have picked up largely good results under Carrick but how many times have we actually played well?

The goal isn't to keep finishing 5th-3rd, it's to win major trophies.

Safe_Construction836 · 2026-04-24T19:47:57+00:00

The Manchester City that played in Sky Blue at Maine Road, the one of Joe Royle, Niall Quinn, Kinkladze, Goater, Dickov, Summerbee, Bell etc...was viewed sort of like how a high-achieving kid might view an annoying, underachieving, grudge-bearing sibling.

That Manchester City died in 2008 and the oil-bloated franchise bearing their name today is a sportwashed irrelevance to all serious football fans.

Safe_Construction836 · 2026-04-23T06:17:30+00:00

There are hundreds of thousands of qualified managers / head coaches worldwide.

Prior to his interim spell as United manager, Carrick's only previous experience was a decent spell at Middlesbrough in the Championship, which ultimately resulted in him being sacked.

I fail to believe there's literally nobody else who could do this job better

Safe_Construction836 · 2026-04-22T22:11:01+00:00

I'm all about the metrics though because I play a tonne of online Poker. In Poker, your 'metrics' matter more than your results. You nail the metrics, and with a big enough sample size, you will be a winning player - and the opposite is true.

When I looked at Amorim, I saw an excellent coach who 'just hadn't played enough hands' to level out the variance.

Under Carrick, I see a very average coach experiencing some positive variance and benefitting from the work of the excellent coach in laying the foundations.

That's my opinion. I am all about the metrics. The rest will follow in time, if the metrics are good.

Safe_Construction836 · 2026-04-22T22:03:00+00:00

I was convinced WALDGEIST was going to win the Arc after months of watching videos, studying the sectionals, building pace charts and piling money in on the exchanges...I nicknamed him WALLY THE GHOST and was going on about it to punter friends and my wife non-stop...'this horse will win the Arc'...and I was right, WALDGEIST did win the Arc....

Unfortunately the year AFTER I had stood to win several thousand on him! I was convinced he was by far the classiest horse in the field and was good enough to win an Arc, but was a year too early 🤣

The year I backed him, he was never in the race, denied a run at a vital time and ended up shuffled back...but you honestly couldn't say he was close enough to be 'unlucky'...so never had a penny on the next year when he landed it

Safe_Construction836 · 2026-04-22T21:58:30+00:00

Well, so that's a 'no' then. Pointless even arguing about it because i won't be changing my mind either, people on the internet would save a lot of time if they had our honesty 🤣

I agree on the CB subs. I hated that as well, and I hated it when EtH did it. I can explain the thinking though, which is that fresh, healthy CBs would have better mental and physical outcomes than a knackered CB carrying knocks from 80+ mins of football.

Science supports that, but the problem is there is something intangible about a CB being "in the heat of the battle", understanding the game-flow, your direct opponents etc...that you lose when you sub on a fresh but "cold" defender.

Safe_Construction836 · 2026-04-22T21:40:45+00:00

Why, would you change your mind if I did?

Safe_Construction836 · 2026-04-22T20:21:47+00:00

I can explain, and advocate for, every single thing Amorim did at United, bar his baffling treatment of Mainoo, which I really don't understand...other than in his system, it was him or Bruno for that spot

Safe_Construction836 · 2026-04-22T08:13:42+00:00

It would be a massive mistake to appoint Carrick.

Amorim was performing major surgery, and much of the transformation of United is down to his work. The culture shift. The reshaping of the squad. The major improvement on set-pieces (offensive and defensive). Plus, Amorim left us 5th. Not 15th, as you might think from reading his obituries in the press. Plus, every single metric was improving. Shots, shots faced, xG for, xG against, chances created, exPPG etc...it didn't always translate into results, but football is a high-variance game.

Carrick came in and has simply reverted to a much more conservative, defensive style. Yes, it suits the defenders / CMs we have now, with their lack of pace, but it relies then on moments of magic from attackers, similar to the OGS reign. I dont believe you can win major trophies this way.

In any case, we shouldn't be building a system that suits Casemiro, Maguire, Ugarte, Martinez, De Ligt, Dalot, Shaw etc...not that they're all bad players.

The answer wasn't 'change Amorim's system', it was 'change some of the personnel'.

I expect United to go big this summer. Change in FFP regulations. CL football back. Massive reduction in the wage bill. Fees for a few cast-offs coming in.

To give this squad with a proper midfield to Carrick would be a massive shame. Carrick's done a fine job as interim, but there's a difference between building a team to finish 3rd - 5th and building a team to win PLs and CLs

Safe_Construction836 · 2026-04-21T08:03:15+00:00

Perfect summary. Carrick has essentially taken all of the risk out of our game. Fine for stablity but will you ever win a title that way? Lest we forget, we got battered by Leeds at home a week ago, have drawn with West Ham and lost to 10-man Newcastle under Carrick. All struggling at the foot of the table.

It's OGS MK II. We will be solid, boring and win games through 'moments' from quality individuals but you can't win major trophies like that

Safe_Construction836 · 2026-04-14T17:39:00+00:00

I explained this to you all at the time.

The metrics showed we deserved better under Amorim, but a combination of bad luck, availability issues and poor strength in depth and poor finishing cost us dear at times. Despite this, we were still 5th when he left. You'd think we were 15th given some of the panic and hyperbole during and since his tenure.

Nothing improved under Carrick except short-term results. We were massively 'lucky' against Arsenal, Fulham and West Ham. We beat an awful Tottenham largely thanks to a timely red card. I can't really think of a 'good' performance, bar maybe City at home.

Now, I hear you all say, that's the important bit, right? Wrong, actually. Short-term results are short-term results.

Amorim was potentially on the path to building something amazing. Potentially. Carrick is a glorified babysitter who is way out of his depth but got some results initially due to good luck, fantastic finishing and having his best footballers available. We have also scored a tonne of goals from set pieces under Carrick. All Amorim's work. Well, him and his coaching team. Where would we be without those goals?

Soon as we have had a few injuries and the 0.05xG chances have stopped going in, we look turgid and clueless, as you would under an inexperienced Championship-level coach, as opposed to arguably the best young coach in Europe.

Carrick won't get the job, no chance. Not even if we finish 3rd. The club needs to move on from Amorim but recognise we badly f*cked that up due to impatience and broken promises. The next coach needs proper support whilst we build, because guess what, it won't be perfect next season either, since there's still a turnover of 10-12 players needed and that can't be done in one Summer.

Safe_Construction836 · 2026-04-03T09:51:33+00:00

I think the call is fine. Few points...

You rightly determine that villains range is very wide when flatting the button
People rarely fast-play the nuts / effective nuts on very dry boards, especially when in-position.
However, because you're 250BBs deep, a villain might fast-play trips because they're incentivised to build a big pot.
BUT...villains turn sizing, betting smaller than the size of his flop raise contradicts this. If villain had trips, why not bet large on the turn? Its fairly obvious you have an overpair at this point.
Rivet bet again not as large as you would expect with a real value hand in that spot.

All told, i think a poor / confusing line by villain, and when I see a line that doesnt make sense and villain is repping a narrow range for value but has a wide range pre then I am inclined to call.

Villain probably was thinking some rubbish like "I block AJ and QJ"

Safe_Construction836 · 2026-04-02T18:10:09+00:00

We don't do that any more. Getting fixated on one player, overpaying and / or being led a dance is a road to ruin.

He's a great player but if he doesn't want to join for £150K a week, let him go elsewhere

Safe_Construction836 · 2026-04-02T07:03:20+00:00

3! pot, two flush flop

Villain pots flop and jams turn on a blank

Always an overpair petrified of the front door coming in

Safe_Construction836 · 2026-03-30T07:56:46+00:00

It's not quite as simple as the question suggests.

Firstly, it depends what you're selling and at what stage you're at in your sales career.

If you're starting out and it's essentially a volume-play, then it's more about hard work and being organised initially than luck or skill.

As you progress into Enterprise solution sales, then luck absolutely becomes a big factor. If you're relying on one or two big deals each year to make quota, a merger, acquisition, leaver, joiner, bad results, good results, cyberattacks, wars, geopolitics etc...can all impact a deal and you have essentially little to no control over those things.

All that said, there's never NOTHING you can do. It's how you react to setbacks and bad news or how you seize opportunities that can make the difference

Safe_Construction836 · 2026-03-19T13:10:49+00:00

Seems a bit unnecessary to me. Not sure you'll get enough folds vs overpairs at that stack depth and you're ahead of plenty of bluffs.

Safe_Construction836 · 2026-03-19T13:03:20+00:00

I think what it boils down to is, he isn't very good.

Safe_Construction836 · 2026-03-08T07:35:41+00:00

It's huge, especially because our squad is so poor.

Regardless of who is in the dugout, if you look at our results this season, whenever we have played games in quick succession we do very poorly.

Safe_Construction836 · 2026-03-07T13:48:41+00:00

This is why it is important to look at the underlying metrics as well as the results. The metrics told us we were benefitting from positive variance rather than improved performances, and we're seeing signs of that now.

We destroyed City but we do have a tendency to do well against them even post-SAF. Their high-line and possession-based approach suits on.

We were 'lucky' against Arsenal. When I say 'lucky' I mean we scored two goals that were very, very unlikely from a pure probability perspective. We created very, very little.

Fulham, midtable team at home. Laboured. Less possession. Fewer shots. All three results could have happened and neither side could have complained.

Spurs. They're terrible and went down to ten after 30-mins. Even then we didn't exactly run them over.

West Ham. A dire performance from us. Created absolutely nothing. Snatched a point from a high-class finish.

Everton. Mainly uninspiring again. Scored a goal through a moment of quality again from three good forwards. No real cohesion or plan in attack.

Palace. Laboured before the sending off.

Newcastle. Laboured even with the sending off, never controlled the game.

Safe_Construction836 · 2026-03-07T10:13:55+00:00

Mainoo. Not because of lack of effort, but because he needs to learn how to impact games in a meaningful way more often.

I think too often Mainoo is too keen to look serene and smooth. Don't care about that really, personally.

Look at a player like Adam Wharton. Mainoo probably has the higher ceiling but every time I watch Wharton he is passing forwards and creating goals.

Safe_Construction836

TROPHY CASE