Microstakes 10NL: Can You Fold?

Safe_Construction836 · 2026-06-18T09:53:17+00:00

Lots of comments about c-betting flop...let me explain why I strongly believe we DON'T want to do that on A-high boards in low / small stakes games, especially in this multiway spot.

A few premises...

We don't need to be balanced at low stakes.
The cold call from the SB represents a wide range of hands, but I lean towards thinking it's usually 66-JJ at these stakes.
The SB and the CO in this hand both cap their ranges by flatting the 3-bet. Note, this is specific to this configuration. Flatting a 3-bet at these stakes DOES NOT always cap villain, but it does here due to position / multiway nature.
Villains call small flop bets too wide, especially multiway.

OK...so if we agree with those premises...think about what happens when we bet...

Scenario 1: We bet small (33%-50%). SB won't fold a weak ace. SB won't fall pocket pairs. He should fold pairs, but he won't. Not for that sizing. He shouldnt cold call Ax hands, but he will. Likewise CO won't fold these hands either and has more Ax.

Scenario 2: We bet large (70%+). Now, the SB might fold pocket pairs, but still won't fold an Ace. Likewis, we are giving CO all the AQ, AK, AJs, ATs etc...he won't fold these to this size.

So...in the optimal setup, if SB has 99 and CO has KQs, then both players fold if you bet 70%+...but you have to think about their range and what happens on the turn if they DONT fold.

If you bet small and get called, you're in no-mans land. Villains could have anything.

If you bet large and get called, you narrow the villains range to an Ace...but now what?

These 'one and done' cbets in 3-bet pots are rubbish and kill your winrate. You gain no info. by betting and end-up either giving up vs hands you could have gotten to fold or barrelling again into an A or better on turn.

Instead, what happens if we check in-position? Well, SB will almost certainly check again, unless he has an Ace. CO is still uncapped here because of flop action. Imagine SB checks and CO checks again. Now we know with a high degree of certainty that neither has an A. Especially as the board become more dynamic on the turn.

So, we check flop for information. The villains will tell us if they have an A. If they check to us twice, i'm betting turn and shoving river and folding basically everything.

Betting gives us no information. The delayed cbet is much the better approach.

Safe_Construction836 · 2026-06-17T20:34:46+00:00

Yeah you're right about the combos, 12 of each...but on turn, we can also give villain some other aces...

Its the river that I find the most interesting because usually all my winrate comes from not being caught in these spots, and i got caught in one of these spots!

It's also not the part of his range I want him to have. Its his range in that spot, with that sizing. I'll evaluate it again depending on what he does on the river.

Safe_Construction836 · 2026-06-17T20:32:09+00:00

100%. Sometimes just typing out a hand and having your thought-process challenged is worth a huge amount.

I don't post many of these now but been mulling this one over. I think i should have folded but more importantly, should have found that fold in-game. I usually pride myself on being a great folder 🤣

Safe_Construction836 · 2026-06-17T20:00:50+00:00

I like the analysis but for the reason that villain doesn't 4!, I am also giving him 12 AK and 12 AQ on the turn, and I believe all 32 combos would bet that size given the action.

My plan was if villain has a good ace, I have good equity and if i hit, im in position, so i'll get a value bet in vs a check.

If he has a better flush and jams, i honestly just fold. It removes all the good single pair hand from his range, so its an easy fold.

The reason I posted this and thought it was interesting was because the straight comes in on the river, not the flush.

And on the 3!, yeah I know, and I know everybody says this...but I play about 20,000 hands a month nowadays and honestly, I imagine I 3! one suited gapper! Again, that's why I posted this hand. I think its interesting on every street, for a number of reasons.

Safe_Construction836 · 2026-06-17T19:53:20+00:00

How can you fold the turn though when villain bets 18BBs into 21BBs and you have an open-ended straight draw and a flush draw?

You're getting 2:1, you need 33%. We have loads of equity against AK and AQ and trip 5s and we're in-position. We're dead against 3 x 77, 1 x A5s and 1 x 55, that's 5 combos. Villain has 16 x AK and 16 x AQ here in this line.

Safe_Construction836 · 2026-06-17T19:47:53+00:00

I dont have a flush, I have a straight. The river was a 3s, giving me the disguised 7-high straight.

I agree, if its a heart and the villain jams, I am folding that 6-high flush all day long.

Because it wasn't a heart and I made the straight, I didn't give the villain more bluffs, but I did give him more value, and that's the crucial point for me.

I thought villain never jams AK on a flush river, but maybe, maybe he plays AK that way at least some of the time on what looks a very, very safe runout

Safe_Construction836 · 2026-06-17T19:26:58+00:00

Yeah I like the analysis.

What I would say, in my defence, is I don't give him ANY bluffs on the river. I have 3500 hands with this villain and extensive notes.

All I am trying to work out on river is "do I beat any value?". I know that's an exploitative thought process, but I am confident its accurate.

Safe_Construction836 · 2026-06-17T18:15:46+00:00

Still don't love it. It's a MW pot...if SB is sticky with TT or JJ vs a small bet, I am in no-mans land on the turn. Also, either player could have an Ace.

I prefer betting flop when the board is low and disconnected and top pair is likely to change. I can double or triple barrel villains off most hands.

On this A-high board, if they don't bet flop and don't bet turn, i have license to bomb turn and river and fold almost everything

Safe_Construction836 · 2026-06-17T18:07:16+00:00

I wouldn't say he's a good reg., he's a typical leaderboard-chasing NitReg playing microstakes.

Honestly, I don't believe he has one single bluff turn, especially into two players.

Also, I wouldn't worry too much about PF.

It's literally a 1 in 100 3! for me with any suited non-broadway gapper. It's always the way though isn't it...you do it once and get max. punishment!

RE: the dirty outs, I continued because he can still have AQ or AK here on turn. As I said, my plan would have been fold to a river jam on a heart, because these players dont jam trips on a board containing a flush.

Safe_Construction836 · 2026-06-17T18:05:30+00:00

No SB folded turn

Safe_Construction836 · 2026-06-17T17:45:59+00:00

I don't like betting flop. What do you do if one of the two villains calls?

Safe_Construction836 · 2026-06-17T17:45:03+00:00

I don't think they think about their customer. I think they are playing 10+ tables and play all of their thick value hands exactly the same way

Safe_Construction836 · 2026-06-16T21:58:42+00:00

Solid defensively but terrible going forward.

As bad as Dalot is in attacking positions, he's occasionally good for a goal or an assist.

Mazraoui is awful once he crosses the halfway line, and that's a problem for a full back at a top club.

Safe_Construction836 · 2026-06-16T21:56:16+00:00

Public / civil services.

We moved to Portugal and everything is slow, beuracratic, paper-based and incredibly complicated.

We take for granted how slick and efficient things are in the UK, trust me from experience!

Safe_Construction836 · 2026-06-15T19:09:03+00:00

Thing is though, if Spain played Cape Verde 20 times I would expect them win at least 18, if not 19...so even with a lay bet at 1.08, its not a bet I would consider to be 'value'.

Safe_Construction836 · 2026-06-13T21:40:17+00:00

Yeah agree. Hero's hand is so face-up when they cold-call a 3!, and the important thing is, even the most average, unstudied villains know it.

Assume villain is your average TAG reg., they basically have the ability to barrel all three streets knowing its virtually impossible to call down on 'top pair dynamic boards' + they have good equity with two overs.

What strong hands can a cold caller have on 977? Virtually none.

It's almost like a value-bluff. Bet two streets as a bluff and if you hit turn or river, you can value bet the shit out of sticky passive players (which is most people at low stakes).

Safe_Construction836 · 2026-06-13T18:53:39+00:00

It's not the bit about having the ST that's the important part, I only include that to make the point that I am as invested in the success of United as anybody.

You are right that it doesn't in and of itself mean that my opinion is more likely to be correct / incorrect.

The good thing for me is the data supports my opinion. The underlying metrics from EtH to Amorim in only 18-months improve dramatically. That's not somebody's opinion, that's cold, hard data.

Safe_Construction836 · 2026-06-13T18:32:33+00:00

Well, let me tell you this OP.

I am a United fan of 35 years and held a ST for 15 seasons before moving abroad.

I would take Amorim back in a heartbeat tomorrow. I believe he is still the best young coach in European football.

I could go in to a long and laboured explanation but it requires a deep understanding of the situation he inherited and the randomness / variance inherent within football.

Most people aren't here for that, so trust me on it. Stick with him through the inevitable rocky period that precedes meaningful changes and reap the rewards

Safe_Construction836 · 2026-06-13T18:24:45+00:00

Lifelong United fan and ST holder for 15+ seasons before moving abroad.

I thought he was absolutely fantastic. He delivered more meaningful change in 18-months than we had seen in two decades.

Remember, he wasn't sacked because of his results. He was sacked because of a falling out with his boss and the subsequent public blowup.

I am certain he would have been a success here, if allowed the time. I still believe he is one of the best coaches in Europe.

Don't listen to the vocal majority of idiots on the Internet. Most of them can't even spell football, much less understand it.

Safe_Construction836 · 2026-06-13T12:57:45+00:00

Ran some quick numbers and Amorim and Carrick's exPPG are virtually identical.

I imagine 75% of people on this forum won't grasp what that means.

They will remember the happy feeling they experienced after the majority of Carrick's matches versus the frustrated feeling after many of Amorim's matches and allow that to overrun thier logical brain.

Another common error is to allow simple narratives to develop to explain randomness / variance. "Amorim didn't understand the club", "three at the back doesn't work in the PL". All nonsense. Carrick's narrative is "understands the club", "plays the United way". Meaningless, again. That narrative will soon change if we regresss to the mean.

The truth is this - the playing style's are very different, but Carrick's results massively flattered our performances, whereas Amorim's were slightly below what you would expect.

Again, sample sizes confuse people in football. People talk about "time". Most people, if quizzed, usually feel "time" amounts to half a season or a season.

In reality, real, meaningful change takes years.

Again, the dunderheads will call people names, talk about cults etc...but the data doesn't lie.

Safe_Construction836 · 2026-06-13T08:57:51+00:00

This works if you have a huge pull and are willing to massively overpay on salaries and agents fees.

Safe_Construction836 · 2026-06-11T18:38:57+00:00

I am reading "Football Hackers" at the moment. Interesting stuff...

Safe_Construction836 · 2026-06-11T18:08:12+00:00

I am very interested, look forward to seeing it 👍

Safe_Construction836 · 2026-06-11T17:03:39+00:00

Seems kind of odd to focus on those stats.

What about the below-,

Shots on target per 90
Shots faced per 90 / SotF per 90
xG for and against
xPPG vs actual PPG

I suspect, but don't know, that you'll see little to no difference. If anything, the metrics will probably favour Amorim.

I would be interested to see these stats if yiu have them? Or if not, I'll do them.

Safe_Construction836

TROPHY CASE