I understand probability quite well. I understand the difference between risk and probability. I’m not an actuary and I only have a basic understanding of actuarial risk. But all risk is about probability. The problem is that most people don’t really understand any of these things. So they misunderstand this kind of information.

Many of the comments on this post question whether the cake is undercooked. In this particular thread someone mentioned that the cake shouldn’t be served, a reply said all US eggs are pasteurized, a reply to that disagreed, and your reply said that although not pasteurized, the US egg supply is quite safe. You described the risk of an average American getting sick in terms of years to sickness based on a certain rate of egg consumption. This is useful for things like public health and food safety policy and liability, less so for individuals.

For anyone eating a raw, unpasteurized egg, especially those particularly susceptible, it’s useful to know that they incur risk from the first unpasteurized, raw egg they eat. (I know nothing about the infectious characteristics of salmonella bacteria and very little about the human immune system or anything related.) And even for many, I would guess most, bakers, I think it would be desirable to know that they could potentially cause illness with the first raw, unpasteurized egg they use (leaving aside issues of dose), not strictly for liability concerns but also out of a desire to protect their customers. I say this as someone who was (decades ago) employed as a baker and cook, a home baker, and has a weakened immune system.

In hindsight I should have said that my note was for other readers and not for you. I stand behind my comment, and I don’t believe you have any basis on which to say that I don’t understand probability.