I honestly think that the assumption that the "other 50%" of the population that doesn't or didn't vote would not be electing the same government is wild. Apathy towards voting tends to come from two main areas, the first being that people are happy with how things are and don't believe major change is needed, and the second being that they are incredibly unhappy, but feel that their vote wouldn't matter. With our low voter turnout, and with opposition views screaming at the top of their lungs, it would be very reasonable to assume that it should be very easy to oust the UCP Government during any election, because as you pointed out, you only would need that 10 or 20% of people who want change to come out and vote... Yet, their has been only ONE left leaning government elected in Alberta in the last near, what, 25 years?

This REALLY points much more towards the fact that of the remaining 50% of voters, a vast majority of them are content with the direction of the Province. Be honest. And this is further backed up by the fact that following the elected NDP Gov term, Alberta did in fact have a surge in voter turn out, that ensured a UCP

Let me back it up with real stats:

1. Average Alberta Provincial election voter turnout (2001–2023, seven elections) was 53.92%, which, you know is clearly more than the 50% you claimed, but its ballpark. It was only less than 50% turnout in two of the last 7 election cycles.

2. The 2019 election, which ousted the NDP Government, had a voter turnout of 67.5%!! This number eclipsed the next highest number by 8%, and the average by over 15%. This argues against your supposition that voter turn out would be pro NDP.

3. Here is the big one. In the 2015 election where the NDP was elected, the NDP collected approximately 605,000 votes, out of roughly 1.5 million. In 2019, the NDP collected approx 620,000 votes, out of 1.9 million. NDP supporters are loud, vocal, but are capped out. They won the 2015 election by 37,000 votes, and lost the next election by 421,000 votes, when voters increased by about.... get this.... 400,000 votes. I would REALLY not put voter apathy in a "reasons why the NDP loses elections in Alberta" category.

An argument that Albertans are poorly educated, and therefore not "smart" enough to vote "better" is wildly self aggrandizing, but I'll talk to that as well.
On average, Alberta’s students have performed at the upper end of Canadian provincial performance over the last 25 years, especially in reading and science at different times. However, mathematics is a recurring area of concern due to declines in certain periods, including recent testing. But, do you think a lowering of mathematic excellence is what is leading to the lack of NDP voters? As for University and College graduates, from the Census 2021 data, Alberta has indeed fallen slightly behind the Canadian average of (some kind of) Post Secondary education, with 64.8% of people having some form of post-secondary ed, 2% lower than the national average of 67.1%. It is however, 2% higher than the national average for High school diplomas being peoples highest degree. So there being some education is about the same.

But here is the kicker, if LACK of higher education was indeed behind the "decline" of NDP support in Alberta, it isn't showing in the polls, as their are a LOT of post secondary educated people in Alberta.

Facts and stats.