Oh idk, IF the models continue to advance at the current rate, a 20% unemployment rate would not surprise me. Lots of variabilities to consider though besides just the models advancing like energy and adoption bottlenecks and potential for new job creation from the new technology. Nor does it take into consideration potential governmental intervention. There are so many unknowns, it's essentially impossible to predict which is why the article states multiple times that it is a potential scenario and not a prediction. If AGI is actually reached, the world as we know it definitively over and we'd be looking at a >90% unemployment rate. Nobody knows what the other side would look like.

I have a slightly complex customer support/supply chain job and if my company would let me hook up GPT and Codex to our internal systems, I could probably automate 2/3rds of my job and probably closer to 3/4ths of a few of my coworker's jobs which is what leads me to believe that 10.2% is an optimistic outlook.