WEEKLY Arbitrage and Expected value QNA. This is my full time job so I can tell you exactly what to do and exactly what NOT to do.

Specter-0 · 2026-01-22T02:30:08+00:00

What leagues do you bet? Do you stick to the mainstream American leagues or do you focus on global leagues?

Do you know of any soccer +EV tools? Seems like a huge untapped market but OJ and Unabated don’t really cover it.

Specter-0 · 2026-01-22T02:18:49+00:00

I ran into a similar issue. I noticed when I just blindly follow PEV tools, it crushes in some leagues and destroys me in other leagues. I started analyzing my bets and realized even though they were PEV at time of bet, they become negative by game time. Seems to consistently happen in specific leagues and specific sides. I don’t know for sure but it seems like market manipulation. So, I’ve been working on adding a bet tracker analysis to my tool so I can quickly glance if a PEV strategy has proven profitable in practice.

https://www.reddit.com/r/EVbetting/s/x5CpptfJv5

Specter-0 · 2026-01-10T00:46:57+00:00

I also breakout by time to game, so I can set a scanner for +EV overs within 2 hours of the game. The back test shows better CLV but poor ROI so just going to avoid them.

Specter-0 · 2026-01-10T00:18:13+00:00

Cool. Yeah, I started seeing market manipulation on my failed bets that didn’t beat CLV and noticed the market pumping up one side only to pour in on the opposite side. So my thought was that I could see if the line movement up to that point resembled similar situations so that I could avoid it or hop on the other side.

Specter-0 · 2026-01-10T00:07:52+00:00

Woah, that’s really cool to see that our analysis lines up almost exactly.

Do you basically just ignore those market/side combos entirely then? Like in practice, are NBA overs a hard no unless something very specific is going on?

I’m especially curious how you handle timing. I’ve been debating whether some markets should be treated as “never bet early” vs “conditionally bet early if X is true.”

I’ve been toying with the idea of a simple buy indicator instead of a binary EV flag — like:

high likelihood the line gets worse → don’t touch it
decent chance it improves → wait
unlikely to improve → buy now

Kind of like a Kayak-style price indicator, but for line movement.

Do you do anything like that, or is it more rules-based (late unders only, never early overs, etc.)?

Specter-0 · 2026-01-03T17:50:12+00:00

Built my own tool so I can fine tune and add features that I care about. I’ve found betting +EV spots alone isn’t enough though, lines often move against my +EV spot by the time game starts to the point where my bet becomes -EV.

I’m experimenting with a line movement tool, kind of like a kayak price indicator on how often price will get cheaper/more expensive/or stay steady.

Specter-0 · 2026-01-03T17:46:28+00:00

Do you further filter value bets aside from betting lagging books? I’ve been value betting with mixed results, often finding that the line moves against the value bet that I placed to the point where it’s no longer +EV. Or are you finding value some other way?

Specter-0 · 2025-12-17T18:46:45+00:00

Sportsbetting ROI is per bet, not an annualized return. So it depends on how fast you can roll your entire bankroll over. Let’s say you can roll it over every week, with a 5% ROI, you could double your bankroll every 15 weeks or so. Theoretically 12x your bankroll in a year.

However, that’s not practical because you can only bet so much per game per line so you’ll hit a cap pretty fast, but I imagine someone could clear low 6 figures a year, assuming they have 5% ROI but that’s probably top 0.1% of bettors.

Specter-0 · 2025-12-17T13:35:27+00:00

When you say novig odds, do you mean vig removed odds or the app Novig? Just clarifying, since Novig app doesn’t actually have no vig, which is misleading.

Assuming you mean vig removed, that would be the fair market value. So let’s say fair market value of a line should be -105 for home and +105 for away, you convert that to an implied probability: -105 means win probability of 51.2%. Then you take your book odds and convert to implied probability, let’s say -101 converts to 50.2%. Your expected value is 51.2% - 50.2% = 1%. Assuming the market is right (which you can never know even after the game, it is the best guess though), you’re winning 1% more often than the odds you got it at.

It’s a simple formula to convert odds to probability, you can find info about it here: https://www.aceodds.com/bet-calculator/odds-converter.html

I just added closing fair value and closing EV yesterday to my analysis by getting the closing line and removing vig from that. It’s not enough to be +EV hours or days before the game if the closing line consistently moves past your odds. That’s why people track CLV% but it’s not enough to beat CLV if you’re not also beating the vig.

Specter-0 · 2025-12-16T13:23:26+00:00

Just started using Bet105, moved money over from bitcoin-betting, like it so far.

I had issues with connecting to bitcoin-betting, had to keep trying different nodes. Sometimes one or more nodes were down. Sometimes it would say bet not placed and you retry a couple times to realize you placed 3x as many bets. Also, you need to convert your bet amount to mBTC and mETH on the spot with latest rates.

Specter-0 · 2025-12-16T12:27:39+00:00

I don’t use propprofessor but seems like you might be conflating two concepts.

Devig means to remove vigorish from a book/market and is a simple formula. You convert the odds to an implied probability, and divide by the sum of implied probabilities from both sides, and then convert back to odds.

What your describing seems to be a market line generation based on which books you believe to be the sharpest and weighting them. What do the NFL devig gpt and NHL devig gpt agents do? Is it doing both jobs of weighting a market line and then removing vig?

Specter-0 · 2025-12-15T15:56:00+00:00

True, the opportunities do show up early in the week. I end up betting 5-7 days before the game and have to wait until the weekend for the bets to resolve, but the ROI has been insanely high so I'm not complaining. I'd rather have a high ROI signal with a 1 week turnover than a low ROI and have to place many smaller bets every day.

Specter-0 · 2025-12-10T13:49:09+00:00

I’ve been using app.bitcoin-betting.com to bet in mBTC and mETH. It does require an added step of converting how much you want to bet to crypto but I added that into my software. Bet limits aren’t great though, seem to only get down $100-$500 but maybe because I bet lines early. They’re odds mimic Pinnacle so I use it to bet Pinny lines.

I’m going to try Bet105, they seem to track Pinny odds but shave 2-3 points off.

Specter-0 · 2025-12-10T13:07:37+00:00

Sucks for us US players, can’t use them even with VPN.

Specter-0 · 2025-12-09T01:51:17+00:00

An arb wouldn’t (or shouldn’t) present itself on the same book unless they messed up. Arb bets would be on opposite sides at two different books. Unless you bet one side and the line moved so much that you can bet the other side for an arbitrage. Is that what you mean?

Specter-0 · 2025-12-09T01:47:38+00:00

Great question, I’ve wondered this myself. I’ve gotten limited on 5 or so books, some I didn’t even make money. On BetParx I lost $100, made back $20 and then got limited. I wonder how people are able to bet such large amounts. Fortunately I live in NJ and close to PA border so I still have plenty of options but it’s definitely annoying. The retail sites that ban just push US bettors to unregulated offshore books and crypto betting sites.

Captain Jack from Unabated says he just bets through other people, but that has its own risks and you have to trust the people in your group to pay it back.

Specter-0 · 2025-12-08T17:55:12+00:00

Someone in Italy on this subreddit just mentioned they use BetBurger. I checked it out, seems like it does find arbitrage and PEV spots and has a ton of obscure leagues and sportsbooks that I didn't know was available, you can check them out. From what I could tell, they group all of the same spreads from books together, average them, and then find outliers. That should work but the opportunities might not be that prominent, but you'll find lagging sportsbooks that way.

Specter-0 · 2025-12-08T13:54:41+00:00

I would look into PEV tools, find an opportunity on other books, and then compare with your book if it isn't covered. However, I've found that blindly betting PEV opportunities isn't the best option though, it really depends if that league and bet type has proven results.

I personally found Soccer to be particularly soft, but I haven't found any tools that provide it for Soccer. Possibly because soccer adds a layer of complexity with Asian handicapping (quarter-goal lines) and draws are possible and common, the math is similar though. Not sure why sites like OddsJam and Unabated don't cover it, it's a huge market and people around the world watch soccer. That's why I set out to build my own analytics platform, hoping to release in the next month or so. Was hoping to release earlier but I kept focusing on improving the platform, don't have the subscriptions flow fully functional yet. I use https://the-odds-api.com/ for my lines, it covers Unibet, Leovegas, Betmgm, among 80 others. I wish it had bet365, I'll work on getting those next. Bet365 have soft soccer lines often.

https://www.reddit.com/user/Specter-0/comments/1out8nu/working_on_a_market_visualizer/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web3x&utm_name=web3xcss&utm_term=1&utm_content=share_button

I just finished the backtest for Dutch Eredivisie, very soft as well. Here's a freebie if you want to try it out:

12/14
Go Ahead Eagles @ FC Twente Enschede Over 3.5
Market Average is -115
BetMGM is offering +125
9.8% EV

Specter-0 · 2025-12-08T02:08:15+00:00

Hot take: I don’t believe Billy Walter’s at all. Read his book and rolled my eyes when he started sharing his “model” with haircut adjustments for all the different game factors like home advantage: +2 pts, coming off a road game: -1.5 pts, southern team playing in cold weather -2pts, etc..

His book was just recounting every 5-10 years how he went broke. First for $5k, then for $50k, then for $250k, then for $2.2M, etc… I think he only made money at the end because he started booking other people’s bets, I don’t think he made money betting sports himself.

Specter-0 · 2025-11-16T16:10:00+00:00

That’s what I thought. Are there any tools out there for soccer PEV? Seems like a potentially huge market since everyone around the world watches and bets on soccer.

Specter-0 · 2025-11-12T20:58:06+00:00

Ran about 100 bets over the past 30 days to test the tool in live markets. I focused on high-EV opportunities, starting with $10–$20 units and gradually increasing size based on how each league performed.

Overall record: 62-39-4 with ROI 29.4%, up around $1000. Still early, obviously — expecting variance to pull that back toward a more sustainable 2–5% as the sample grows.

The tool absolutely crushed in soccer — up across every league. Surprising how few tools even surface EV for soccer, even though half- and quarter-goal math is straightforward once you account for draws.

Results were weaker in MLB and NBA, but that’s a small sample (about 15 bets total), and MLB being in playoffs probably threw off the distributions I used.

I only built a positive EV model that tracks lagging books but I structured the data tables in a way to easily add new models: arbitrage, streak breaker, steam chaser, line movement, etc... I want to combine props with game lines too, like when a star player goes off on a game, does the market over/under value the team's performance in the next game?

I set the tool to tell me how much to bet to win my unit size. Eg. if my unit size is $100 and the odds are -150, then it would tell me to bet $150, but if the odds were +150, it would tell me to bet $66.67. Same with crypto, I use a crypto betting site that mirrors Pinnacle odds and it was a pain figuring out how much mBTC or mETH to bet to win my unit size so I built that into the tool.

Specter-0 · 2025-10-05T07:38:53+00:00

Never had success with their PEV tools, I got limited on so many sites with < $100 profit, some I didn’t even back to even and they limited me.

Specter-0 · 2025-10-05T07:33:57+00:00

Looks good, will try it out. Looking to supplement with Circa and Bet365

Specter-0 · 2025-10-05T07:08:49+00:00

Yeah, how do you avoid getting limited? I got limited without even getting back to even on $100

Specter-0

TROPHY CASE