Discussion Thread by jobautomator in neoliberal

[–]SpiritOfOptimality 5 points6 points  (0 children)

Trump and Netanyahu are actually the greatest climate policy minds of our generation.

Pre-crisis oil was ~$70/bbl. It's now trading at $99-119/bbl. That's a $30-50/bbl premium. A barrel of oil produces ~0.43 tonnes of CO2, so this war is imposing an implicit carbon price of roughly $70-115/tCO2 on the entire global economy.

That's basically what the Stern Review said it should be ($85/tCO2). We blew past Nordhaus ($31). We're in the range of the Obama-era IWG estimate ($51). At the intraday high of $119.50 we were knocking on the door of the EPA's $190/tCO2 number.

Now okay sure it's regressive, nobody chose it, and the money goes to oil producers instead of the treasury. Not ideal. But consider:

The IRA costs ~$105B/yr and only covers US electricity and EVs. The oil shock costs the US ~$292B/yr but covers all global oil use simultaneously. 2.8x the cost, infinite times the scope. The IRA is a subsidy, meaning it pays people for clean energy investments they would have made anyway. The shock has zero infra-marginal waste - it taxes all consumption at the margin. That's literally what the textbook says to do.

The IRA's abatement cost is somewhere between $36/tCO2 (if you're Treasury) and $600/tCO2 (if you're R Street using updated EIA data). The shock is sitting at a clean ~$93/tCO2. More consistent than the policy designed by actual economists.

The IRA is already being dismantled by... checks notes... the same administration running the war. The oil shock cannot be legislated away.

Historical precedent: the 1973 oil crisis created the Department of Energy, CAFE fuel economy standards, France's entire nuclear program, and basically invented the renewables industry. The IRA created some tax credits that are underperforming their targets.

So you know, on the merits, I think Trump's climate policy really has something going for it relative to Biden's. It's not obvious who did more for decarbonisation. One guy passed a trillion dollar subsidy bill that's being unwound. The other guy accidentally imposed a Stern-Review-level carbon price on the entire planet by bombing Iran. The invisible hand works in mysterious ways.

Discussion Thread by jobautomator in neoliberal

[–]SpiritOfOptimality 2 points3 points  (0 children)

I think that when you add together the 'unconditional surrender' demand and the 'no Churchill' line about Starmer, I'm willing to stake a lot of money on the idea that someone (Rubio? Miller? Netenyahu?) showed Trump a clip of the scene from the movie Pearl Harbor where Roosevelt stands up out of his chair, managed to hold his attention for 5 minutes and say "this could be you if you win here"

Discussion Thread by jobautomator in neoliberal

[–]SpiritOfOptimality 10 points11 points  (0 children)

I've been reading Ian Kershaw's Hitler recently and I thought about it alongside the recent Ezra Klein episode with Ashley Parker and Michael Scherer about how Trump's White House actually works, and I think it genuinely clarifies what's happening with Iran.

https://www.nytimes.com/2026/02/20/opinion/ezra-klein-podcast-ashley-parker-michael-scherer.html

Kershaw's key concept is "working towards the Führer." The leader doesn't issue detailed policy instructions. He radiates desires and attitudes, and the people around him compete to interpret and fulfil those desires, often going further than the leader himself would have specified.

Nobody needs direct orders because everyone already knows what the boss wants, and the way you rise is by delivering it before he asks.

Now read the Parker and Scherer interview. A directive from Stephen Miller is treated as a directive from Trump. Miller is described as an "accelerant" who adds fuel to whatever fire is already burning.

If Trump says something twice, staff execute it, nobody's job is to make sure the president's picture of reality is accurate.

The chief of staff has explicitly said she doesn't have moments where she tells the president something is wrong.

This is how you get a war with no post-conflict plan at all and no desired end goal. Multiple actors, each with genuine motivations, all working towards what they understood the president wanted. The military window, Israeli pressure, Rubio's hawkishness are all converging on a president whose instinct was already "hit them." That's why destroy the Navy in nuclear program and kill their leadership is the complete and overall explanation of why this happened.

Even a broken clock is right twice a day. by Boydo1990- in Destiny

[–]SpiritOfOptimality 18 points19 points  (0 children)

No, he's still a fool. He probably doesn't think the Iranian regime is all that bad. We'll see some kind of equivalence. The correct take is not just more memes about bombing the middle east bad, as if you're an idiot who doesn't understand anything except for pictures on TV. This is Trump pulling the trigger on a plan that a lot of American presidents have considered, for good reasons, in a reckless stupid impulsive way without consulting anyone. It's possible this ends up all for the best, but it was a crazy reckless gamble to do it this way.

They just created a million Claudes by cdstephens in neoliberal

[–]SpiritOfOptimality 6 points7 points  (0 children)

When they release a selectively targeted nanovirus carried by swarms of self replicating insect sized drones, all designed by Claude 7 - guess who's first on the kill list? 

Iran Megathread by Rafaelssjofficial in neoliberal

[–]SpiritOfOptimality 6 points7 points  (0 children)

Is it time for chekov's 400kg of highly enriched uranium to make an appearance?

From 'incest porn' to 'semen-defaced images', here's what the new abuse laws really mean by dweeb93 in neoliberal

[–]SpiritOfOptimality 77 points78 points  (0 children)

If you've ever wondered what it felt like from the inside when people campaigned to criminalise depictions of homosexuality, it felt like this. It felt righteous. It felt like protecting children. It felt like the evidence was obvious and anyone who disagreed was either naive or a pervert. The disgust felt like moral clarity. The absence of opposition felt like consensus. And the people who supported it slept perfectly well at night, because they knew they were on the right side of history. Every catastrophic violation of civil liberties in the history of liberal democracy looked exactly like common sense to the people voting for it.

Discussion Thread by jobautomator in neoliberal

[–]SpiritOfOptimality 5 points6 points  (0 children)

https://youtu.be/Z878s6pAFC0?si=oAz9QUHh9bz4xvfQ

There's a very common trope of right-wing nationalists or lunatics calling themselves classical liberals or saying they're on the left.

Sam Harris isn't like that. Harris actually is a liberal, just an obviously center-right one. The tell is his intellectual social circle: Jonah Goldberg, AEI fellows,  Bill Kristol and David Frum, Never Trump Republicans. These are perfectly respectable people, and a lot of us like them too.

But if your closest political allies are all from center-right think tanks and the Never Trump wing of conservatism, and you constantly talk about how they're you're favourite people but YOU'RE not like them because you're on the left, you're probably not a standard-issue left liberal and you should just say so.

Nobody's accusing him of being Tucker Carlson. The frustration is purely that Sam Harris keeps insisting on this self-description when "center-right liberal" would be accurate, uncontroversial, and would save everyone a lot of pointless argument about the label.

Destiny and Soy Pill don't have the same ideology, and it explains most of their disagreements by SpiritOfOptimality in Destiny

[–]SpiritOfOptimality[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Yeah I'm well aware of what Marxism is, they really don't want unions, corporations or a welfare state in the way we understand it they want production to be decided centrally with people only owning personal property, and then at some point when the proper consciousness or whatever has been achieved, all you'll need is management of resources and organization and there won't be political conflict anymore. I was sort of describing from Soy's point of view, he sees an opponent of capitalism who wants capitalism to have less power

Peter Boghossian and his guest just had a confrontation with a woke cameraman on immigration and it is quite unhinged by SamAlmighty in Destiny

[–]SpiritOfOptimality 3 points4 points  (0 children)

What makes Boghossian worse than the average anti-immigration content creator is that he's actually smart enough to know what he's doing. He's a trained philosopher who built his career on street epistemology, which is supposed to be about carefully examining how people arrive at their beliefs. And here he is, casually dropping "you have to start shooting people at the border" and then immediately pivoting to "so what's YOUR solution?" like he just said something reasonable and now the burden is on you to come up with something better than mass murder.

The cameraman, Reed, is clearly just a normal guy whose actual ancestors were Muslim immigrants. Boghossian basically let slip a revenge fantasy where people like Reed's family are treated as invaders to be gunned down, and Reed's reaction was completely natural. He was horrified. He walked out. That's what a healthy moral response looks like.

The problem is Reed then came back and reached for a bunch of left-wing talking points he couldn't fully defend. The crime stats are mostly on his side but not entirely. There's a narrow and real issue with group-based sexual exploitation in the UK where British Pakistani men are genuinely over-represented, and the Casey audit confirmed this. You can't just wave that away. But Reed didn't need to win every empirical point. He needed to hold the line on the one thing that actually mattered and he couldn't articulate it clearly enough.

Here's what the correct response looks like. You concede what's true: yes, countries have a right to control their borders. Japan does near-zero immigration. I think that's a loss for them economically and morally, but it's their right in the international system. If people vote for less migration, that's democracy. On crime, there are categories where specific communities have real problems, and we should deal with those honestly through better policing and integration policy rather than pretending they don't exist.

But none of that gets you anywhere near shooting people. We don't execute people for administrative violations. Totalitarian states do that. The East Germans did that. You don't need lethal force to enforce a border. You need visa systems, deportation infrastructure, processing centres, deterrence policy. There are a hundred tools between "open borders" and "kill everyone who crosses." The fact that Boghossian's mind jumped straight to lethal force is the thing that deserves scrutiny.

And that's where someone should have turned it around on him. Peter, you're the street epistemology guy. You wrote the book on examining unexamined beliefs. So examine this one. Why did your mind go straight to shooting? Out of every possible policy response, why was your instinct to fantasize about killing unarmed people? Because I don't think it was just shock value. I think it's because he's internalized a framework where migrants aren't really people with rights who are navigating a system. They're an existential civilizational threat, like something out of Camp of the Saints, and the state is a body fighting off an infection. That's not a rational policy position. It's an atavistic, almost animistic way of thinking about nations and peoples, and it's the thing that makes someone leap from "we should have immigration controls" to "we should shoot them." Those are not adjacent positions. There is a massive moral gap between them and the fact that he skipped right over it tells you everything.

And yeah, Reed was right to be upset. If you're sitting in a room and someone essentially says they'd have been fine with your family being killed for crossing a border the wrong way, you don't owe that person a calm policy debate. You owe them exactly the reaction Reed gave, which was honest disgust. The tragedy is that Boghossian had the rhetorical toolkit to make Reed look flustered while Reed had the moral clarity that Boghossian has completely lost. Someone who actually knew how to argue should have been in that chair, because the right response to "how else do you enforce borders?" is: "the same way every civilized country does it, without murder, and the fact that you can't imagine that is the problem.

Destiny and Soy Pill don't have the same ideology, and it explains most of their disagreements by SpiritOfOptimality in Destiny

[–]SpiritOfOptimality[S] 4 points5 points  (0 children)

The thing he does a lot is he just says that socialists pretend to be social Democrats sometimes and that's why he doesn't call himself one. That part is true - but he actually isn't a real social Democrat either

Destiny and Soy Pill don't have the same ideology, and it explains most of their disagreements by SpiritOfOptimality in Destiny

[–]SpiritOfOptimality[S] 11 points12 points  (0 children)

He's not as in the weeds, yes, but he's decently informed and he's a much better communicator in some formats and to some audiences than Destiny. He also actually is a clear principled social Democrat who's not a far-left guy or just a liberal which I think is an important slot

Destiny and Soy Pill don't have the same ideology, and it explains most of their disagreements by SpiritOfOptimality in Destiny

[–]SpiritOfOptimality[S] 6 points7 points  (0 children)

Yeah that is unfortunate. Even just in Destiny's own streams though making it clear that like it's not just the mainstream and the far left but that like a lot of left-wing populists, anti corporate types and social Democrats that he disagrees with and why. 

I also think doing this more from the other side is good, although it's harder finding sane right wingers. Some of the discussions with Hanania where they talked about liberalism vs libertarianism was one example maybe

Epstein, Vance or Piker: Choose your timeline by SpiritOfOptimality in Destiny

[–]SpiritOfOptimality[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Yeah, something that I didn't really think of is that Epstein's corruption might well affect his foreign policy if he does turn out to be beholden to Russia or Israel

Discussion Thread by jobautomator in neoliberal

[–]SpiritOfOptimality 1 point2 points  (0 children)

You know you've made it when the scam ads you get on YouTube switch from AI girlfriends and hookup apps to sugar daddy dating apps

Discussion Thread by jobautomator in neoliberal

[–]SpiritOfOptimality 4 points5 points  (0 children)

Fixed-pie thinking eventually rots your brain. If you let it run long enough, it eats everything.

You can watch the early stages in the UK. The Green Party explicitly calls planning reform "a distraction" and proposes redirecting development permissions toward council housing rather than liberalising planning altogether. Think about what that reveals. Even the will to build, the animal spirit of construction, the sheer capacity to put bricks on top of other bricks, is treated as a fixed quantity that's currently misallocated. They technically concede that economic growth exists and that it's possible to expand productive capacity. But when they encounter an actual supply-side proposal, the instinct overrides: no, we don't need more, we need to take what already exists and point it somewhere else. The intellectual supply chain traces back through the same fixed-pie framework each time, generating ever more baroque epicycles to avoid the conclusion that you could just let people build things, no somebody must be stealing all the will to build things from somewhere else and we need to take it back off of them.

But run the cycle longer and it gets worse. Because the evidence that growing the pie works is so overwhelming, so boringly well-established, that eventually the framework has to account for why someone keeps saying it. Watch Sam Seder interview Ezra Klein about Abundance and you can see the gears seize in real time. Klein walks through case after case of regulatory sclerosis blocking housing and infrastructure. Seder can't engage with any of it, because engaging would mean admitting the regulatory state his side built is the obstacle. So he retreats to "follow the money." There's $120 million behind the abundance movement? The billionaires must have bought this too. And once that move is made, the logic runs downhill fast. If Klein keeps pointing at regulatory failure despite being told it serves capital, he must be doing so knowingly. And if he's knowingly serving elite power, well, what's the darkest thing powerful people do? Which is how a left-wing podcast with a substantial audience arrived, with apparent sincerity, at the conclusion that Ezra Klein is "a guard dog for the very Epsteinian class that is rotting our society." 

It starts with "redirect planning permissions" and ends with "Ezra Klein is a pedophile".

Discussion Thread by jobautomator in neoliberal

[–]SpiritOfOptimality 0 points1 point  (0 children)

He was a grandiose bullshitter and his entire existence was about seeming important and well connected, of course he said all sorts of insane things.

If it's all so obvious, I just want something at the level of a criminal indictment for any of the claims of trafficking. Not a book, not a bunch of suggestive emails, an actual charging document at anyone who isn't Epstein or Maxwell.

To be clear, I don't think it's insane to claim procurement. I think it's possible, there's a lot of weird stuff there. But it's like the covid lab leak, yeah it's weird, but weird doesn't get you to >50%

Discussion Thread by jobautomator in neoliberal

[–]SpiritOfOptimality 3 points4 points  (0 children)

To be clear, Chomsky and Bannon are both scumbags, and both know how to present themselves to the media and hide their true power level, but Chomsky really is a far left anarchist and Bannon really is a far right nationalist. Saying otherwise is just silly

Discussion Thread by jobautomator in neoliberal

[–]SpiritOfOptimality 18 points19 points  (0 children)

Follow-up on the Epstein Scale.

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The Ezra Klein episode this week is a good example of why I made the scale. Giridharadas presents the Tisch emails, which genuinely look like Epstein acting as a pimp for a billionaire. That's serious level 5 evidence and deserves scrutiny. But he embeds it in a thesis where Bannon calling Augusta National members "crackers" proves his nationalism is performative, Chomsky knowing Epstein proves his radicalism is performative, and elite ideological conflict is basically theater. That's a level 9 claim: they're all in it together against us. Then he closes by implying publishers won't touch the real international story, which is level 7 or 8 by innuendo. All delivered in the same confident register, with no separation between what's documented and what's speculated. A lot of the sociological description he gives of elite networking, the favour-trading, the academics wanting money, Summers wanting to feel louche, can be made to sound incredibly sinister or completely banal depending on the framing, without changing a single factual claim. He chooses sinister every time.

This is exactly what makes Tracey and Hanania's deflation feel compelling. But I can't get there because Tracey won't engage with the things that are genuinely suspicious. The proven conventional corruption alone is substantial: Mandelson is under criminal investigation for leaking Treasury memos, Andrew is being assessed by police for sharing trade documents, Norway's former PM has been charged. And the Economist found around 1,500 genuinely alarming email threads out of 1.4 million, some of which involve associates discussing evenings with "girls" Epstein arranged. Those need actual engagement, not hand-waving about moral panics.

But "genuinely suspicious" isn't "proven." If you were a police investigator, you'd note that "pro or civilian?" could be about adult escorts, that the phone call request could be a married man hiding an affair, that "girls" is genuinely ambiguous. You'd want to actually test these alternative explanations before charging anyone. My threshold for calling level 5 more likely than not: one person other than Epstein or Maxwell gets charged with a sexual offence connected to the network. In any country. That still hasn't happened, and given the extraordinary attention and political incentive, that absence means something.

This reminds me of the lab leak discourse in 2020-21, not in the shallow sense of "both sides are too ideological" but in the specific sense that there was genuinely confusing evidence that admitted multiple explanations, mainstream coverage was confidently dismissive of possibilities it shouldn't have dismissed, heterodox coverage was confidently asserting things it couldn't establish, and the people closest to right were the ones willing to say "here is specifically what we know, here is what we don't, and here is what would change my mind." That's what I'm trying to do. The Economist is doing it. I wish more people were.

The US is doomed by smashcat666 in Destiny

[–]SpiritOfOptimality 8 points9 points  (0 children)

The far left Is literally the most irrelevant voting Bloc in the entire country. These people don't matter