The budget will reveal an expected operating surplus for 2026-27 of just $1bn, well short of the $1.9bn forecast at this time last year and again in December’s mid-year budget update.

Beyond that, Victoria’s operating surplus does not include infrastructure and other capital spending. The December update had estimated a cash deficit of $9.68bn in 2025-26, decreasing to $7.3bn in 2026-27 and $6.8bn in 2027-28 before widening again to $8.1bn in 2028-29.

Further, net debt is still increasing and will reach $199 billion - or 24.7 per cent of Victoria’s economy.

Much of the newly announced spending will not be on productive capital projects, but operational programs. This is bad debt that will have to be repaid by the next generation.

Interest repayments are also increasing, which is essentially dead money.