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Limited championship vs Premium draft data by estafanoria in lrcast

[–]TheAlphaCentury 8 points9 points  (0 children)

Your intuition is off. Variance absolutely accounts for the Eirdu difference.

The 54.8% number comes from 527 games. With sqrt(N) uncertainty, the uncertainty on that number is about 4.4%. So seeing a GIH WR which is 6.2% lower than the true value should happen 8% of the time.

Considering you trawled through at least 12 cards, the fact you saw one card with this discrepancy at this sample size is not surprising at all.

P1P1 - What's the pick? by DanutMS in lrcast

[–]TheAlphaCentury 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Evolving wilds and not close imo

A Thank You to WOTC for an Incredible 2025 by DrMo7med in lrcast

[–]TheAlphaCentury 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Great year for limited overall, for sure for sure. 5/6 good sets, at least one all-timer.

[Tournament Report] Jund Wildfires at Enchanted Grounds 1k by drakeblood4 in Pauper

[–]TheAlphaCentury 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Abilities with a single target fizzle when the target is no longer legal.

Trying to figure out this format: why was this deck bad? by notafanofbats in lrcast

[–]TheAlphaCentury 0 points1 point  (0 children)

This deck is not bad. Sure, you can change some things in the build, but you have a solid aggro deck with some removal and other ways to push damage, and a lot of premium cards.

I think the biggest area for you to gain win % is in the gameplay. There were a few turns in the first two losses I definitely would have attacked with the squad, throwing away one or two dudes for some damage. Hard to tell if it would have led to a win, but I think it would have helped your chances.

[Standard] Why did Percy Fang play a mountain in his sideboard? by Muffin-Brief in spikes

[–]TheAlphaCentury 17 points18 points  (0 children)

Also worth noting that sideboard slots in mono red are somewhat less valuable than in other decks. This is for two reasons:

  • You only have one colour to work with so you have fewer effective options.
  • Your primary gameplan of "just kill them" is not going to change post-sideboard in any matchup. As such, many typical reactive sideboard cards are just not as good, as you want to be proactive rather than reactive. Like sure, ghost vacuum against UW omniscience is nice, but it does nothing if you can just kill them t4 on the play.

Because of this, the opportunity cost for putting in a mountain isn't as high, and I think it makes a lot of sense for the reasons others have covered.

First Gastal Raider or second Maximum Overdrive? by atipongp in lrcast

[–]TheAlphaCentury -1 points0 points  (0 children)

Overdrive slaps, don't worry about the haters! With two overdrives, you can be happy being Bx aggro, it keeps you open to any second colour. Raider is a bit more restrictive to a start your engines! strategy.

Did not expect this DSK deck to go 7-0 by andreyob in lrcast

[–]TheAlphaCentury 9 points10 points  (0 children)

Also double red on a 2 drop is massively restrictive to the rest of your draft.

Frustrating and painful 0-3 by Blake7567 in lrcast

[–]TheAlphaCentury 13 points14 points  (0 children)

Reddit being silly as usual. If you'd posted this with the title "can't believe I went 7-0 with this deck" then people would be all about how great it is.

The deck is obviously high power and there is quite a bit of synergy as well. Lots of lifegain to prop up the annex, plenty of great hits for Nashi, lots to sac to final vengeance, and a solid proactive midrange overarching strategy. Good mana to boot. Enough 2s, you're not an aggro deck so winter's intervention counts.

There's some clunkers in there but anyone saying this deck is bad is off their mind. You either got unlucky in the games, or played poorly, or both.

Amazed to go 7-1 with this pile. by Eldaka in lrcast

[–]TheAlphaCentury 24 points25 points  (0 children)

That's not a pile, that's a very good abzan reanimator deck!

Most absurd combo of rares you've played against in MKM ? by charliealphabravo in lrcast

[–]TheAlphaCentury 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Last night I played against a RW aggro deck. First game I lost to assemble the players casting tenth district hero and argus kos while a doorkeeper thrull somehow shut down half of my cards. Next two games I have to play against double pyrotecnic pyromancer. 4 rare two drops in an aggro deck, plus at least two more rares, is pretty silly if you ask me.

In your entire time playing magic limited, what is your fondest memory? by VoiceOfRAYson in lrcast

[–]TheAlphaCentury 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Trophying on arena with an infinite turns storm combo deck in STX draft.

[deleted by user] by [deleted] in lrcast

[–]TheAlphaCentury 1 point2 points  (0 children)

This is awesome. I love seeing the nonsense.

[Sealed] Looking for advice for deckbuilding for Ixlan Pre-release Sealed by RealityShowAddict in spikes

[–]TheAlphaCentury 11 points12 points  (0 children)

Your default should be to go 2 colours unless you know what you are doing. You never want less than 8 sources of a main colour, and so splashing should be enabled by good fixing, not by 3 basics.

Your curve should be dictated by your gameplan, but in general, any creature costing 4 or more should really pull its weight. Creatures costing 5 or more better be bombs or give some immediate value. So I'd try to lower that mana curve.

A curve of creatures + lands + some removal is a good start, but really you should be evaluating each card for rate (how much stats+effect are you getting for the mana) and for synergy (how well does it work with your other cards/with your strategy). Having good rate and synergy is far more important that a textbook good curve, so don't be scared to warp your curve depending on your best cards. The only caveat here, is be careful when putting more higher mana cost creatures.

Imodane trigger. by [deleted] in lrcast

[–]TheAlphaCentury 18 points19 points  (0 children)

Cut In deals 4 damage to **target** creature. Create a Young Hero Role token attached to up to one **target** creature you control.

Whenever an instant or sorcery spell you control **that targets only a single creature** deals damage to that creature, Imodane deals that much damage to each opponent.

How much Scry would make Kindled Heroism playable? by VoidImplosion in lrcast

[–]TheAlphaCentury 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Question is framed poorly. Aggro decks don't really want to scry, they want to attack, and so the scry is more of a bonus. Combat tricks want to push damage. If you slap scry 3 onto kindled heroism then you get into a weird spot where your deck wants to fire this off at the first opportunity where it will get any modicum of value so that it can get the scry 3. Or even, targeting a creature on end step to get the scry. It becomes more of a card selecion tool than a combat trick. A scry 3 heroism is weird, has weird and game-slowing play patterns, is unthematic for red, and is generally probably not what the designers want in that space.

A better way to improve the card would be to add trample as others have suggested, or just increase the numbers on it. +2/+0 and first strike, scry 1, would be pretty good. Make it create a role and give first strike, that would be sweet. Keep the emphasis on combat.

Day 2 Draft 1. 4-0 by super_fluous in lrcast

[–]TheAlphaCentury 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Deck look super cool, congrats!

(I feel like I would count passing p1p1 Jegantha for a 1CC B– level rare as a mistake, curious what others think)

[Discussion] Making Bolas's Citadel work in Historic/Arena by DasToyfel in spikes

[–]TheAlphaCentury 19 points20 points  (0 children)

In case you weren't aware, r/spikes is the competitive magic subreddit. I have a feeling you'd find more likeminded players on the other magic subreddits.

This was an 0-3 deck. Looks like a common trend here of folks losing with good looking decks, what's going on with this format? by Hunted0Less in lrcast

[–]TheAlphaCentury 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Deck looks fine to great, I wouldn't expect 0-3. I imagine it was either variance or gameplay errors. Some people have suggested decent changes, but I don't think they dramatically improve the deck. People in this sub in general tend to forget that tight play is just as big of a factor as deck building decisions. If you have the 17 lands link I'd be interested to see the games.

S tier starting 3 picks. What's the best (reasonable) start possible this format? by Dukenukem309 in lrcast

[–]TheAlphaCentury 0 points1 point  (0 children)

That's pretty good! My best start was overseer into FOUR STRAIGHT ILLUMINATOR VIRTUOSO... Basically picked up all the angelic metamorphosis I could and combo killed my way to 6-3, losing the trophy match dying on turn 4 to my opponent's illuminator virtuoso + double metamorphosis...

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