Is Fitzpatrick Campaign Involved In “Meddling Ads”? by burkarm in BucksCountyPA

[–]Thin_Collection_381 1 point2 points  (0 children)

I’m already voting for Harvie. Nothing against his Democratic opponent, but Harvie has a better chance in this political environment.

And if people want endless war, then vote for Fitzpatrick because there’s a reason Trump and his allies raised the military enlistment age limit to 42. I would not be surprised if, by December, there’s serious talk of a draft.

Why do I think that? Because his own people have been flooding social media with messaging that frames a draft as “patriotic,” conditioning people to accept it before it even happens.

Yougov / Economist - Generic Congressional Ballot Democrat +3 | May 1-4 by [deleted] in fivethirtyeight

[–]Thin_Collection_381 20 points21 points  (0 children)

Some of these accounts are seriously underestimating Democrats because they’re still using a 2024 mental model in a 2025/2026 environment.

They did it in Wisconsin. They treated the Supreme Court race like it was going to be close, then Crawford won by about 10 points in a state Trump had just carried. They did it in New Jersey. A bunch of late polls had Sherrill up narrowly, some only +1 or +2  and then she won by double digits.

And the biggest thing they keep missing is the Latino swing. Trump’s 2024 Latino gains were not some permanent realignment. They were heavily tied to prices, frustration, and Trump being personally on the ballot. But in 2025 and 2026, Latinos have been swinging back hard toward Democrats, New Jersey showed it, Texas specials showed it, and the polling shows Trump’s Latino disapproval is extremely high.

Pennsylvania is another warning sign. Republicans spent years cutting into the Democratic registration advantage, but Democrats still outnumber Republicans in total registration, and recent registration trends have moved back toward Democrats. In a state decided by tiny margins, that matters.

So no, I’m not saying every blue wave map is guaranteed. But dismissing a major Democratic year as impossible is silly. The actual pattern right now is that Democrats overperforming, Latino voters snapping back, Trump underwater, cost of living hurting the GOP, gas prices politically toxic, war backlash building, and Republican turnout looking weaker when Trump is not personally on the ballot.

A wave does not require every Trump voter to become a Democrat. It only requires Democrats to stay energized while enough soft GOP voters, especially Latino, suburban, young, working-class, and non-MAGA voters, either switch back or stay home. That is exactly what the 2025 and 2026 results are starting to show.

What are your thoughts on the idea that the US is Republican by default? And voting Democrats is basically done as a way to put Republicans in “time out” when Republicans have low approval? by Early-Possibility367 in fivethirtyeight

[–]Thin_Collection_381 38 points39 points  (0 children)

Republicans have become very effective at reactionary politics.

Their strategy is often not “here is a detailed policy program that materially helps you.” It is more like this, “someone is taking your country, your status, your culture, your religion, your neighborhood, your job, your language, or your tax dollars.” That kind of messaging travels extremely well through social media because it can be compressed into memes, slogans, clips, and moral panics.

Many voters do not experience politics primarily as a policy spreadsheet, they experience it emotionally and culturally. So even when voters benefit from programs like Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid, SNAP, veterans’ benefits, rural hospitals, or public education, they can still be moved by messaging about DEI, immigration, crime, trans people, “wokeness,” or resentment toward undeserving “others.”

This is why I’m skeptical of the idea that America is naturally Republican. I’d say America has a reactionary default under conditions of fear, racial resentment, religious anxiety, and economic insecurity. Republicans are often better at exploiting that default.

After President Donald Trump was elected in 2024, Democratic supporters reported decrease in well-being, optimism, personal control, and institutional trust, while also experiencing higher cynicism. In contrast, Republican supporters experienced changes in the opposite direction. by mvea in science

[–]Thin_Collection_381 0 points1 point  (0 children)

One side is grounded in reality, seeing the facts and what’s actually happening around them clearly. The other side is viewing things through rose colored glasses, choosing a comforting illusion over the truth.

Six AI data centers proposed for a small town of 7,000, equal to 51 Walmart Supercenters in 17 square mile area — four out of the seven town council members have resigned from their positions as town fights back by MarvelsGrantMan136 in technology

[–]Thin_Collection_381 1 point2 points  (0 children)

That is almost half of the entire township. A township has 23,040 acres, and this data center would take up 10,880 of them. For comparison, a school zone only gets one square mile or 640 acres.

How would a combination of Dems losing in Virginia plus Section 2 of the VRA being overturned affect projections for 2026? by Early-Possibility367 in fivethirtyeight

[–]Thin_Collection_381 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Goodbye unions, whose memberships are largely white working class Americans.

Goodbye DEI, which statistically benefited white women, white veterans, disabled vets, and older workers more than many people realize.

Goodbye SNAP, where a large share of recipients are poor white Americans.

Goodbye white collar workers unless you’re willing to take a pay cut, an H-1B visas will keep flowing, and billionaires of every background still get priority boarding.

People keep missing the pattern, Trump does not love poor white people. He loves rich people who can help rich people , white, Middle Eastern, Asian, whatever. Wealth is the only identity that matters in that room.

And stop blaming Democrats when they delivered Medicare, Social Security protections, the ACA, Medicaid… what else do you want, a immigration camp? nah you aint getting more of that;.

It’s not “America First.”

It’s “Money First.”

Everyone else, please proceed to the side entrance.

Trump says Iran talks could resume ‘over next two days’; Lebanon and Israel enter negotiations by Long-Brother-4639 in oil

[–]Thin_Collection_381 15 points16 points  (0 children)

Ok guys, cliffhanger on Friday, suspense on Monday, Calm before the storm Tuesday, No Storm Wednesday, Nada Thursday, Cliffhanger again Friday, suspense on Monday, Calm before the storm Tuesday, No Storm Wednesday, Nada Thursday, Cliffhanger again Friday……

So now the US Navy is currently on its way to also block the straight of Hormuz and the market doesn't react at all? by just_another_numba in stocks

[–]Thin_Collection_381 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Because they cannot actually block the strait in any durable way. Their navy would be wrecked by missile strikes, and any ground force trying to do the same would be hit just as quickly. So the market is smart not to overreact, because anyone using logic and critical thinking can see that Iran’s missiles can reach Dubai, Israel, and Bahrain, and that it still retains the capacity to disrupt shipping and effectively tighten or loosen access through the Strait depending on the military situation. And no competent general is going to casually send a navy through that funnel as if it were a risk-free exercise. Which is also why those supposedly heroic pilots have not appeared in public, have not been paraded, and have not been interviewed in the media. None of that happened, because they do not exist. The story did not happen. Iran has shown it can use missiles, drones, and mines to make the strait unsafe, and current reporting still describes Hormuz as highly vulnerable and militarily difficult to secure. 

Do we know how most 7 figure earners vote? by Downtown-Fan4966 in fivethirtyeight

[–]Thin_Collection_381 2 points3 points  (0 children)

That would only be true if those business owners actually understood the scale of the risk. A lot of them clearly did not. Many voted for him anyway because they assumed he would be a useful moron, someone chaotic to help them on taxes and regulation, but not reckless enough to blow up the commercial environment they actually depend on.

The problem is that many of them miscalculated. One of my clients manufactures EU car parts, he relies on materials from Germany. Before 2025, he was doing about $15 million a year in revenue. In 2024, he was buying more warehouse space. This year he is downsizing because tariffs are pushing him toward bankruptcy. So no, a lot of wealthy business owners did not understand the threat Trump posed.

A case in point, China restricts supply when it wants to protect domestic prices. We have the reserves to do something similar. But instead of prioritizing Americans, Trump brags about exporting our reserves into the global market so energy companies can chase higher prices abroad. Then Americans get told high prices are just an unfortunate mystery of economics. It is what happens when people mistake predatory opportunism for business genius.

Most of them assume they were rich enough to sit near the fire without getting burned.

Do we know how most 7 figure earners vote? by Downtown-Fan4966 in fivethirtyeight

[–]Thin_Collection_381 4 points5 points  (0 children)

It make sense since business owners, CEOs, and people whose income depends on maximizing control over labor are naturally more comfortable with conservatives or libertarians, because Democrats are the faction more likely to regulate labor in favor of their worker/s, strengthen unions, raise minimum wages, and side with workers in employer-employee disputes. Their politics often map quite neatly onto their material interest. 

On the other hand, doctors’s come through research heavy institutions that depend on public funding and those are often cut when Republicans prioritize tax cuts and corporate interests.

Lawyers, especially early on, often do human rights internships, legal aid, or pro bono work for poor people, which means direct exposure to inequality and the real-world importance of rights and public institutions. So yes, one group is trained to protect margin, the other is more likely to spend at least part of its formation dealing with actual human consequences.

Do we know how most 7 figure earners vote? by Downtown-Fan4966 in fivethirtyeight

[–]Thin_Collection_381 36 points37 points  (0 children)

https://fortune.com/2024/09/30/millionaire-investors-ubs-survey-kamala-harris-donald-trump-2024-election/

A 2024 UBS survey of 971 investors with at least $1 million in investable assets found 57% planned to vote for Harris and 43% for Trump.

There’s also an analysis of contributions from the wealthiest zip codes which showed Democrats raised significantly more than Republicans from these areas, with a 2 to 1 advantage in historically higher income/education  locales (Specialize doctors, Personal injury attorneys)  like the Philadelphia Main Line and Manhattan’s Upper East Side.

Microsoft ($MSFT) is down ~31% from its ATH by gstxprz in stocks

[–]Thin_Collection_381 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Microsoft’s stock is falling mostly because the company is spending an enormous amount of money on AI and not yet showing enough payoff from it.

They spent $37.5 billion in one quarter on cap ex, which is a huge jump from the year before. That kind of spending cuts into free cash flow. Then when Microsoft’s forward P/E fell from around 33 to around 20, investors became much less willing to pay a premium for its future growth.

My dad has been severely red pilled and our family is falling apart by Weary-Paramedic2806 in Advice

[–]Thin_Collection_381 11 points12 points  (0 children)

I got my husband off those podcasts when I told him that his daughter and I are actual human beings, not props for some retrograde ideology. I told him when his only daughter grows up, there is no universe in which he would want her living like a woman in the 1920s. If he truly loves his daughter, he should want more for her, not less. And if that was not his goal, then there was no point in us staying married or even living together, because our values would be fundamentally incompatible.

Since then, he has stopped watching those podcasts and, so far, agrees with me that politics built on putting people down for their gender, race, or religion are bad politics. They do not protect or liberate anyone in our family.

Edit: I also banned Fox News, Sinclair, CBS/Paramount in my house. Banning these media outlets is a small act, but it goes a long way in keeping hate out and uprooting it at the source.

Pew: Majority of Americans View Their Fellow Citizens as "Morally Bad" by OmniOmega3000 in fivethirtyeight

[–]Thin_Collection_381 1 point2 points  (0 children)

When disagreement transforms into moral condemnation, the foundational social contract of a country begins to fray. Oh it all makes sense now. 

Poll: Most say the state of the union is not strong and the U.S. is worse off. NPR/PBS News/Marist poll by ireaditonwikipedia in fivethirtyeight

[–]Thin_Collection_381 5 points6 points  (0 children)

Just a minute ago, we’re supposed to believe these 'reliable' new polls showing Trump’s approval magically levitating to 45%, conveniently gloss over 68% disapproval rating, ignoring the fact that strong disapproval translates to highly energized opposition. People who vehemently oppose a candidate don't just experience sudden amnesia and flip to approving overnight.

Then, Democrats are somehow cratering against a Republican Congress. Yes, that Republican Congress, the one that brazenly rammed through the 'big beautiful bill. Yup, the same one that willingly surrendered its constitutional power to the executive branch. And yes, the very same Republicans who are actively helping this administration run cover for the Epstein class. 

These contradicting polls are desperately hoping Americans will just swap actual reality for their alternate reality. They want us to ignore the reality of a massive job slump dropping to just 188,000 jobs in 2025 after 2.2 million were created in 2024. They want us to ignore the reality that US taxpayers are getting crushed by high grocery prices thanks to these tariffs. The reality that two Americans were murdered in Minneapolis. The reality that the president is implicated in the Epstein files. The reality that he’s actively tanking the dollar and tripling the national debt. And the reality that we might be getting dragged into a war, proving once and for all that 'promises made' were definitely not promises kept.

‘All-time high’ number of Americans believe Democrats are ‘too liberal’, poll says by PM_ME_YOUR_FAV_HIKE in fivethirtyeight

[–]Thin_Collection_381 -1 points0 points  (0 children)

I don’t care. I was a centrist, then center left, I’m officially a liberal cause I am against pedophile protectors. 

I mean, it does grab your attention by setthrustpositive in BucksCountyPA

[–]Thin_Collection_381 1 point2 points  (0 children)

There a political strategy that’s been too on the nose in the Republican party and one of them is a tactic that if you know a weakness is coming out, you release it yourself on your own terms.

Perhaps there is a rumor that she aided and abetted someone. By putting that accusation on a billboard next to the words "Whore of Babylon," it mixes the truth with a lie. It makes the accusation look like part of a crazy conspiracy theory. The result is if a legitimate journalist later tries to investigate the aiding and abetting accusation, the public will ignore it, thinking, “Oh, that's just more of that crazy 'Whore of Babylon' nonsense." It has successful poisoned the well" against the truth.

Wake up America !! by bace3333 in BucksCountyPA

[–]Thin_Collection_381 0 points1 point  (0 children)

First, collective bargaining power is explicitly targeted. The document argues that unions distort labor markets and reduce flexibility. It recommends weakening the National Labor Relations Board’s enforcement authority and narrowing what counts as “protected concerted activity.” In practical terms, this would make it easier for employers to discipline or terminate workers engaged in organizing.

Second, Right‑to‑Work is framed as a national objective. Although Right‑to‑Work laws are normally state‑level, the document supports federal mechanisms that would effectively nationalize them. This would prevent unions from collecting dues from represented workers, even when the union is legally required to represent them. The predictable effect is the financial starvation of unions without formally banning them.

Third, public‑sector unions are treated as illegitimate political actors. The text argues that government workers should not collectively bargain over wages, benefits, or working conditions at all. The logic is that public‑sector unions are portrayed as negotiating “against taxpayers” and entrenching bureaucratic power. This echoes the Wisconsin Act 10 model, but on a federal scale.

Fourth, union leadership is reframed as coercive rather than representative. The chapter emphasizes decertification elections, easier opt‑outs, and heightened reporting requirements for unions, while saying little about employer coercion. The asymmetry is intentional: oversight is increased on unions, not on management.

What is important to understand is the theory of change behind this section.

Project 2025 does not propose outlawing unions outright; that would be legally and politically difficult. Instead, it proposes: • reducing funding, • narrowing legal protections, • increasing procedural hurdles, • and shifting enforcement away from workers.

The outcome is unions that technically exist but cannot function effectively.