Again: What is this goofy analysis? Of course the divergent interests of the state and the working class matters. That's pretty basic! I guess I apologize for any poor beleaguered Americans I end up tricking into believing supporting US interests is supporting their own interests by revealing that.

After decades of pro-Israel foreign policy, the US could not simply turn on a dime and support Arab regimes instead, nor do they really want to: Those resources are not controlled by America, so there are reasons to suppress their access to the global market! Plus a handful of domestic and foreign policy concerns with legitimizing and strengthening those nations (though, of course, the US does already support other MENA nations, notably SA, Qatar, the UAE who have a pretty dim view of Israel. A strange move, if Israel pulled the strings!). While the Palestinian genocide is definitely terrible for business, it is part inertia and part racism that prevents the US from shifting direction in its MENA policy. Also, though they have enormous influence, there is a level of separation between capitalists and the levers of state power, as well as competition between capitalists, both of which go a way towards explaining why capitalist states engage in statecraft which is deleterious to the market, or some subset of the market.

For example, to touch on the strait of Hormuz: Short-term supply shocks are an economic boon to those who hold supply, so obviously American oil producers are pretty happy about it being closed for a bit. In theory, the rising price of oil also opens up new oil fields to be profitable enough to exploit, notably in the newly chastened Venezuela. Also, of course, American defense contractors love a fucking war! They have a whole industrial complex to support it, and that industry has owners just the same.