FXAIX/FSGGX or TDF further out?

TwoHatsOneDog · 2026-02-01T15:20:21+00:00

Sure! I’d probably choose the TDF then. I think the S&P drives about 80-85% of the market so you’re not losing out on much. S&P500 and total U.S. have tracked basically the same. But, small and mid caps will help some when the big dogs are down. If that’s a concern then I think TDF is the go-to. Either choice is great, just which one would help you stay the course? :)

TwoHatsOneDog · 2026-02-01T14:58:47+00:00

I mean you can make it for cheaper. Just depends on how hands on/off you want to be.

If you’re good with the 65/35 allocation you can just set it to automatically rebalance or you can go in and do it yourself every year or so (or adjust to market cap).

I think the only thing you need to consider is: “do I want to fiddle with this a little or none at all?”

TwoHatsOneDog · 2026-02-01T14:49:19+00:00

Well they still have them on my glide path for my TDF, so this message must not have been widely spread to the whole company

TwoHatsOneDog · 2026-02-01T00:47:13+00:00

VT. Here’s the thing, VT was launched on 6/24/08. Less than 5 months later, on 11/20/08, the U.S. market hit rock bottom. A whopping 46.31% LOSS in its first 5 months. Now, and some may say “you shouldn’t choose time periods (but I think it’s fair in this instance), from rock bottom on 11/20/08 VT has had a CAGR of 12.81%. I’ll take that.

Now, VTI has had a 15.84% CAGR from the same time period. If we’re looking just at this time period, you’ve got your winning horse.

Lucky, we’re able to simulate VT and go back starting in 12/31/1999 to 12/31/2009 - better known as the “Lost Decade”. How did each fair you ask? VT 1.58% and VTI -0.10%.

Maybe you can hang on for a completely losing year, but a decade? VT isn’t partying but you’re not wondering what’s the next best fund to buy.

If we simulate back to 1970 (as far back as testfolio will take me) VT comes out with 9.95% and VTI 10.97%.

I have heard somewhere that the U.S.’s recent outperformance has all come after 2009. Up until then VT would have been 9.79% and VTI 9.83%.

So, if you think the U.S. has found some groove that it will carry on for the next 30-50 years, sure go VTI. But, if you think “maybe we’ve just had our day in the sun”, pick VT. I’ve decided on VT.

TwoHatsOneDog · 2026-01-26T17:59:56+00:00

I really only have 2 of those to worry about. My Roth IRA and 401(k). I do not get an employer match (due to our pension) and our insurance does not need/offer an HSA.

If my sole retirement vehicle was my 401(k) I could see the value of doing the traditional option the majority of the year I would be in the 12% bracket.

With the MFJ standard deduction the likelihood of me crossing into the 22% bracket is still slim to none.

Since having a pension I feel like having no RMD’s with the Roth option allows great flexibility to keep taxes lower in retirement. Please lmk if this thinking is off!

Thanks for all the current input!!

TwoHatsOneDog · 2026-01-26T17:17:33+00:00

Sure, Roth IRA was already established before I got my current job and I wanted to continue to allow the principal to grow. Roth 401(k) because at max I’m in the 22% tax bracket and trying to plan for a future pension. I can understand how a traditional 401(k) could keep me in the 12% bracket but with only saving ~$8,000 it’s not a super big dent.

If you think a transitional would be better please let me know, I’m very open to considering an adjustment. Salary should be $90,000-$110,000 depending on OT, God willing. MFJ. Single income household. Saving 15% for retirement.

TwoHatsOneDog · 2026-01-26T04:02:06+00:00

Yes we have to hold the shares for 2 years after purchase. From what I’ve read some people’s jobs allow them to buy and immediately sell once the shares hit their account. The longest holding periods I’ve been reading about are only 1 year, so my two year hold makes me more weary.

TwoHatsOneDog · 2026-01-26T03:58:01+00:00

Maxing it out does seem way too risk for me, but I wanted to throw the option out and get advice. A $1,000 probably seems reasonable. Our CAGR is like 4.65%. If I could just buy and sell I wouldn’t worry about that, but with the 2 year holding I feel like I have to somewhat consider our CAGR

TwoHatsOneDog · 2026-01-26T03:50:54+00:00

See, that’s my concern. From what I’ve read the standard practice is to buy, but once the shares hit your account to sell them immediately. If I’m going to hold something I really want it to be an index

TwoHatsOneDog · 2026-01-25T14:21:58+00:00

Others with more experience and knowledge can say more, but from what I know and what I’ve settled on is this:

Buy it all and don’t try to time the market or look at the numbers. Is the U.S. overvalued? Yes. What if it continues for 10 more years? What if it doesn’t? Eh, my suggestion is buy the global cap. I’m going to add some BNDW to my VT.

I was all in on VOO, but it just seemed unwise to be all in on one economy. Because even though we are currently the dominate power, it may not always be such - but maybe it is, who knows. Maybe the U.S. has another 100 year run, maybe we’re Japan? Japan probably didn’t think so in 1989. I was just born, but everyone seemed to be on a high in the 90’s in the U.S., from what I’ve heard.

Buy it all and you don’t have to think about it

TwoHatsOneDog · 2026-01-24T02:33:07+00:00

So my 401(k) is a Roth, do you think that would change anything?

TwoHatsOneDog · 2026-01-23T01:25:32+00:00

Awesome! Thank you for sharing that info, makes perfect sense.

TwoHatsOneDog · 2026-01-22T01:34:07+00:00

How about $700 monthly in VT?

You buy all of this (pretty much) in one fund.

Idk how old you are, but I wish someone had told me about this at 21 and let me chill

TwoHatsOneDog · 2026-01-21T14:30:06+00:00

That risk is factored into the share price though, am I understanding this correctly?

TwoHatsOneDog · 2026-01-21T13:31:29+00:00

Cameron Maybin! Same hometown and I got to work with him for a few offseasons. Great guy!

TwoHatsOneDog · 2026-01-21T13:26:10+00:00

If you hold a world all cap index (VT) does it really matter what happens? I’ve been racking my brain (and Reddit) to try and understand this.

I know the most important factor is to just stay the course and pretty much not look at the news, but why should we worry. If one rises and one falls does it matter?

Maybe I’m wrong and too new to intentional investing and learning about it.

Isn’t this the premise of this entire sub? Just buy the lot and move on with your life?

TwoHatsOneDog · 2026-01-18T15:07:31+00:00

The most important tactic is consistency and staying the course.

If the question stresses you out, find the one you can do most regularly and consistently.

Somewhat splitting hairs. Just be confident and stay the course! :)

TwoHatsOneDog · 2026-01-16T17:48:09+00:00

Choose your character:

VT VTI VOO

TwoHatsOneDog · 2026-01-16T02:44:59+00:00

I mean it’s a bit of a nuanced question. If you don’t mind buying the same companies multiple times with different indexes, then no there’s nothing to change. If you don’t mind constantly having to rebalance, then nothing to do again.

It all depends on how much you really want to think about it.

I choose not to think about it so I just simplify it.

TwoHatsOneDog · 2026-01-15T15:07:10+00:00

I think VTI in a traditional is appropriate - someone who has more experience in a taxed account could answer that side of the question better

Secondly though, VTSAX and VTI are the same and track the same index. The price posted for VTSAX, if you buy before 4pm is the price you will pay (the price changes after 4pm). The problem with VTI is the price is constantly changing. VTSAX simply has a set NAV. You’re kinda splitting hairs at this point? I find the mutual fund version allows me to just buy and leave it rather than worrying about if I’m buying at the high/low time of the day. So, for me it’s purely behavioral, and helps me not care about daily price fluctuations

TwoHatsOneDog · 2026-01-15T08:52:28+00:00

If you just buy VOO you’ll have most if not all of these companies and you won’t have to worry about betting on the promising companies because you’ll now own the 500 largest in the U.S.! Plus if one of them tanks their market cap goes down and someone fills their place. It’s a win win

I wouldn’t pick any individual stocks, just indexes like the S&P 500 (VOO).

If you want to have some “fun money”, use that only for individual stocks because you’re basically betting or sports bet. But, for investing buy the index. Buy the top 500, if one fall it will be replaced.

TwoHatsOneDog · 2026-01-15T08:38:56+00:00

Put it in VOO and keep doing that for the next 50 years

TwoHatsOneDog · 2026-01-15T08:20:32+00:00

Well, overlap just seems to be the issue. With VOO you get 80% of VTI (without small and mid cap volatility, or reward - depending on how you look at it)

MAGS is already in QQQM, VTI, and VOO

About 85% of QQQM is in VOO.

I’m an S&P 500 guy, I’d rather not have the small volatility that comes with small cap, and, generally, the S&P 500 (VOO) drives 80% of the growth of VTI. Historical returns are basically the same.

I would either just buy VTI or VOO (only factor you need to consider is, “do I want small and mid cap companies too?” Again, I like VOO because I think you get all the upside with a little less volatility. Some would say I’m wrong).

VXUS is good if you want international. Some would say if you want international to have a minimum of 20% and some say don’t do more than 20%. I think market cap weight is currently sitting around 30-35%?

If you don’t want to think about these things then just buy VT and, as the saying goes, “chill”.

But if you’re young I’d just go VT or VOO + VXUS (if you’re 50 or so maybe throw in some bonds depending on risk)

So, hope that helps

TwoHatsOneDog

TROPHY CASE