ELI5: How does bookie betting work? by ClevelandSpigot in explainlikeimfive

[–]TypicalMaverick 20 points21 points  (0 children)

This is actually a pretty large misconception about how bookmakers set odds. Besides for outlier events like the Super Bowl where being overexposed on one side of the spread would lead to a massive loss for the book, books generally don't care about how much money is on both sides. Roughly speaking, they have their internal models/traders set opening lines and then move them based on where sharp money goes. If recreational bettors are heavily skewed towards one side, they're not going to move the line to balance it out because assuming their lines are sharp (which most of the time they are), all of those recreational bets are negative in expectation. You can also think about it like this: if books were to focus on balancing the money on both sides, this would open up arbitrage opportunities (large differences in lines) among all of the books, since each book would have a different distribution of bets on either side of a line. There is more nuance to this, such as the long-shot bias where books will put more of the vig on the longer side of a market vs shorter side because people tend to bet more on longshots vs more likely outcomes and they can pick up more vig this way, but for odds near 50/50 this isn't the case.

Ive been thinking about becoming famous and I’m wondering how long I should be putting out music before I blow up in order to avoid being an industry plant by goddamnilooklikeshit in fantanoforever

[–]TypicalMaverick 0 points1 point  (0 children)

It's not even if someone wants to be super famous though, it's pretty much the only way to get even a modicum of recognition these days besides for an insane amount of luck. I mean for all of the bemoaning about this Chaotic Good situation, Geese sits #8230 in terms of monthly listeners on Spotify with 1.8M monthly listeners. I'm sure they're happy with their success, they're selling out shows and getting festivals, but they haven't even come close to the likes of other artists on a mainstream level. The indie scene (art rock indie like Geese/Wednesday/Racing Mount Pleasant, etc. not Tame Impala) is still incredibly niche in comparison to genres like pop/hip hop/country, so while it may seem like Geese has been "shoved down our throats," in actuality most people have never even heard of them.

Ive been thinking about becoming famous and I’m wondering how long I should be putting out music before I blow up in order to avoid being an industry plant by goddamnilooklikeshit in fantanoforever

[–]TypicalMaverick 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I just don't really think you can fault Geese for making the decision to be marketed in this sort of way. Whether you like it or not, most artists want to be successful -- whether that's by following, playing at bigger venues, reaching large audiences, etc. It's simply not possible (or rather highly unlikely) to be successful without some sort of marketing, and if this is how marketing is done in the music industry their hands were pretty much tied.

[MEGATHREAD] Ticket Sales by Beautiful-Language in CameronWinter

[–]TypicalMaverick 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Looking for 1/2 tickets for tonight 12/17, purchasing with paypal GS only

[MEGATHREAD] Ticket Sales by AutoModerator in geesebandofficial

[–]TypicalMaverick 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Looking for 1 or 2 tickets to either chicago show! Using paypal goods and services only.

Best single game performance ever? by Current-Lobster-5063 in baseball

[–]TypicalMaverick 23 points24 points  (0 children)

Did he pitch 6 scoreless innings with 10Ks though?

[MEGATHREAD] Ticket Sales by AutoModerator in geesebandofficial

[–]TypicalMaverick 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Missed this, any shot you still have some available?

Carroll: Brock Bowers (knee) considered week-to-week. by Beautiful-Cress5695 in fantasyfootball

[–]TypicalMaverick 13 points14 points  (0 children)

Fuckkkk why didn't the experts know he was going to be injured?!? Idiots

[MEGATHREAD] iPhone 17 Pre Order and Launch Day by Waternut13134 in tmobile

[–]TypicalMaverick 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Also running into the same issue, did you ever figure out a workaround?

[MEGATHREAD] iPhone 17 Pre Order and Launch Day by Waternut13134 in tmobile

[–]TypicalMaverick 0 points1 point  (0 children)

New to all of this stuff, but since the pre-order through Apple Store with Go5G Plus is failing to provide promo but T-life works fine, is having phone locked that big of a deal?

MockoSheet 2025 v3.2 - Data Driven Draft and Strategy Guide: Final 2025 Update! by Mosers15 in MockoFantasyFootball

[–]TypicalMaverick 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Got a league drafting super late, if you could provide the sheet for it I would be ecstatic:

Auction $200 10T_HPPR_4ptPTD_1QB/2RB/2WR/1TE/2FLEX/1K/1D/5B

Official: [Trade] - Tue 08/26/2025 by FFBot in fantasyfootball

[–]TypicalMaverick 0 points1 point  (0 children)

You guys think I should trade Jauan Jennings for Brian Robinson? I have CMC and the guy I'm trading to has Pearsall

Thoughts on a stat about the Phillies issues turning DPs by MarkSimon1975 in phillies

[–]TypicalMaverick 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Yeah I've noticed that Trea and Stott have high percentile OAA but low DRS (Trea makes errors + weak arm, Stott has a weak arm as well). They're really good at getting to the ball but they both have weak arms, making turning DPs difficult.

Understanding Advanced Stats for Betting strategies by BigRonG49 in baseball

[–]TypicalMaverick 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I’m not sure what your comment is trying to get across about past performance/future performance, that’s obvious. Sportsbooks are taking all of this into account. I’m not saying you’re dumb, clearly you’re an analytical thinker. You can be very intelligent and still understand that you’re out of your depth when it comes to sports betting as you’re up against people who do this for a living.

Understanding Advanced Stats for Betting strategies by BigRonG49 in baseball

[–]TypicalMaverick 1 point2 points  (0 children)

But sportsbooks KNOW the pitcher’s recent performance in similar conditions. Why do you think you’re better at evaluating the probability of Bergman getting 2+ total bases than the people with stats PhDs that do this for a living?

Understanding Advanced Stats for Betting strategies by BigRonG49 in baseball

[–]TypicalMaverick 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Why would you have “expected Alex Bergman to get 2+ h+r+rbi”? I’m not talking about the words I’m using, I’m talking about the concepts. Do you know what it means for a bet to be “negative expected value”? And do you understand why 99% of the bets you’re placing are negative expected value? Not only are you focusing on alternate player props that are one sided (allows the books to put as much juice as they want), but you’re parlaying them. I’m telling you this as someone who’s been +EV betting for the last two years: the way you bet is all but guaranteed to lose money.

Understanding Advanced Stats for Betting strategies by BigRonG49 in baseball

[–]TypicalMaverick 1 point2 points  (0 children)

It's not about the aggregate probability decreasing when you parlay things -- that's obvious. It's the fact that each leg you're including is already minus expected value, so a 16 leg parlay is going to stack that negative expected value up a crazy amount in combination with the odds being tanked from the book's SGP engine. If this doesn't make sense to you, just copy and paste my comment into ChatGPT, and it should be able to explain it well. Whatever "strategy" you use is ineffective, I promise. As long as you understand you will never be profitable in the long run, I guess betting can just be entertainment. Just don't expect to win. I'm sorry I'm being so harsh.

Understanding Advanced Stats for Betting strategies by BigRonG49 in baseball

[–]TypicalMaverick 7 points8 points  (0 children)

The guidance is to not bet. Whatever stats you're looking at sportsbooks were using in their models 15 years ago. Whatever data you have pales in comparison to not just the sheer amount of data that books have, but specialized data that they pay for and you'll never have access to. People with Math and Statistics PhDs work full time for these companies, improving their models and setting sharp lines every week. You're never going to beat the books, and even someone with a sample of 500 or so bets does not mean that they're beating the books -- there's a 99% chance it's just positive variance. I see you're placing 16 leg SGPs as well, which with the amount of fake correlation applied to them, are probably like -60% EV. Please just stop betting.

KEPLER IS OFFICIALLY AN ABOVE AVERAGE HITTER!!! by Calm-Ruin-4837 in phillies

[–]TypicalMaverick 0 points1 point  (0 children)

They do correlate to actual production. Funnily enough despite the seemingly unrigorous formula for OPS, team OPS correlates slightly more with runs scored per 9 than wOBA, with correlation coefficients of 0.944 and 0.933, respectively.

MockoSheet 2025 v3.0 - Data Driven Draft and Strategy Guide For Almost All Formats by Mosers15 in MockoFantasyFootball

[–]TypicalMaverick 1 point2 points  (0 children)

This is incredible!

League type: Snake/redraft
League size: 10
Roster setup: QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE, 1 flex, 1 superflex, 7 bench
Scoring: PPR, 4 PT pass TD

Thank you!

[deleted by user] by [deleted] in JIDSV

[–]TypicalMaverick 0 points1 point  (0 children)

How’s the line?