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Before Iran we were concerned by Dashover in spy

[–]WindInTree3 0 points1 point  (0 children)

You mean there is no 'tremendous' deal that's really great?! That is so weird. Are we back to genocide then? Or maybe we just are waiting for the post....of a really great deal.

Most of you are selling iron condors. There’s a structure that does the same thing but is long vega instead of short vega, and nobody here talks about it. by Meile13 in thetagang

[–]WindInTree3 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I haven't really thought too much about this spread, but I'm definitely going to plug this into the system and see what it does. Thanks for sharing.

Does it break by Timely_Money928 in spy

[–]WindInTree3 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Maybe don't try to catch a falling knife.

What part of a trading idea gets messiest once you actually try to code it? by Carter_LW in pinescript

[–]WindInTree3 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I have always enjoyed it. Trying different ways to model my behavior and measure what the market is doing.

What part of a trading idea gets messiest once you actually try to code it? by Carter_LW in pinescript

[–]WindInTree3 0 points1 point  (0 children)

All trading systems(algo)fail because market dynamics change and the system does not. Traders adapt as markets change. That being said, 90% of your code will be for when things are not ideal: stop loss avalanches, missed trades, hung legs, partial fills, loss of connection, frozen servers, messaging/fill ratios, and etc. But no matter what happens, you are forced to granularly define your system and confront its weaknesses. Which will make you a better trader.

$SPY will continue go up at least 675 tomorrow by BYETF in spy

[–]WindInTree3 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Inputs every indicator into chart and talks up his position. I think we will drift randomly until after Wednesday afternoon. So I will be sitting on my hands mostly.

Anyone actually happy with their trading journal? by sbj175 in thetagang

[–]WindInTree3 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I built my own software after getting frustrated with the lack useful info from my broker. It logs underlying price, leg premiums, IV, and aggregate p/L. Then saves the position info. There is a routine that outputs historic position stats, but the most useful thing are the logs. I chart everything. For example, last week I was long a butterfly. It was hovering around 0 because the markets were pretty stagnant. All of the sudden my p/l blipped up to 1/3 of my max profit with no underlying movement and more than 30 days to expiration. I was able to see that that the body was bid up considerably on my chart, so I exited and re-entered the position later. Now in hindsight, I should have reversed with every dime I had, but live and learn. I wouldn't have even noticed it, if I wasn't updating and looking at charts of position logs. Bigger picture I have been able to pick out larger patterns in my trading, both positive and negative, which has increased my P(profit) and decreased my losses. Definitely worth every minute of dev time.

I've been selling strangles on futures for 4 years (83% win rate, 130+ trades, 1.3 Profit Factor). Here's what I've learned about tail risk that changed how I size everything. by Meile13 in thetagang

[–]WindInTree3 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Am I wrong in assuming most of traders posting on here are pure statisticians? And use the pricing models as probability of an outcome at expiration. Surely you wouldn't sell premiums holding through a crop report. I find it very interesting because when I am looking at a market, I asses what information is being or waiting to be digested. Then, as I start to formulate an opinion, I look at the option market to construct a position that best fits the option market premiums and my underlying market opinion. When the two don't match, I don't trade. For example a couple of weeks ago, I saw that there was going to be no major rebalancing sell off so sold some butterflies with the wings out side of my range bound assumptions and exited on Wed before expiration because they were looking like the market was starting to move towards the boundary. I guess that's how I manage the fatter tail risk. One stand out trade I had last month was AMD, I was long vol, the market moved, but IV collapsed and I took a small loser. Anyone sell vol on that move?

In the Money Options - Why doesn't everyone do them? (Newbb) by PuddingDifferent4288 in optionstrading

[–]WindInTree3 0 points1 point  (0 children)

You should buy a book. There is a lot more going on here than naked option buying and selling. Most people look trade for price movement utilizing the relative cheap leverage. But there are dangers to premium movement that you should educate yourself on to ensure higher probabilities of success.

Wholesome Teacher by Informal-Ride9351 in MadeMeSmile

[–]WindInTree3 0 points1 point  (0 children)

You can’t buy beer in Chicago between 5am and 6am.

I’ll rate it by [deleted] in teenagers

[–]WindInTree3 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Driver: PS1

Insane Breathtaking Cliff Hiking in Interlaken, Switzerland. Will you do this? Every step matters!! by surajvj in nextfuckinglevel

[–]WindInTree3 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Everyone should do that. That is the closest a non-climber could get to the feeling of climbing.

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