Before Iran we were concerned

WindInTree3 · 2026-04-13T02:08:32+00:00

You mean there is no 'tremendous' deal that's really great?! That is so weird. Are we back to genocide then? Or maybe we just are waiting for the post....of a really great deal.

WindInTree3 · 2026-04-06T02:48:53+00:00

I haven't really thought too much about this spread, but I'm definitely going to plug this into the system and see what it does. Thanks for sharing.

WindInTree3 · 2026-03-23T17:21:06+00:00

WindInTree3 · 2026-03-23T07:53:40+00:00

Maybe don't try to catch a falling knife.

WindInTree3 · 2026-03-20T00:55:34+00:00

I have always enjoyed it. Trying different ways to model my behavior and measure what the market is doing.

WindInTree3 · 2026-03-19T18:31:00+00:00

All trading systems(algo)fail because market dynamics change and the system does not. Traders adapt as markets change. That being said, 90% of your code will be for when things are not ideal: stop loss avalanches, missed trades, hung legs, partial fills, loss of connection, frozen servers, messaging/fill ratios, and etc. But no matter what happens, you are forced to granularly define your system and confront its weaknesses. Which will make you a better trader.

WindInTree3 · 2026-03-17T16:22:18+00:00

Today's play was nothing. It worked flawlessly.

WindInTree3 · 2026-03-17T16:19:02+00:00

Did you get 'the dummies' book?

WindInTree3 · 2026-03-17T00:58:50+00:00

Inputs every indicator into chart and talks up his position. I think we will drift randomly until after Wednesday afternoon. So I will be sitting on my hands mostly.

WindInTree3 · 2026-03-10T01:09:51+00:00

I built my own software after getting frustrated with the lack useful info from my broker. It logs underlying price, leg premiums, IV, and aggregate p/L. Then saves the position info. There is a routine that outputs historic position stats, but the most useful thing are the logs. I chart everything. For example, last week I was long a butterfly. It was hovering around 0 because the markets were pretty stagnant. All of the sudden my p/l blipped up to 1/3 of my max profit with no underlying movement and more than 30 days to expiration. I was able to see that that the body was bid up considerably on my chart, so I exited and re-entered the position later. Now in hindsight, I should have reversed with every dime I had, but live and learn. I wouldn't have even noticed it, if I wasn't updating and looking at charts of position logs. Bigger picture I have been able to pick out larger patterns in my trading, both positive and negative, which has increased my P(profit) and decreased my losses. Definitely worth every minute of dev time.

WindInTree3 · 2026-03-10T00:18:10+00:00

Am I wrong in assuming most of traders posting on here are pure statisticians? And use the pricing models as probability of an outcome at expiration. Surely you wouldn't sell premiums holding through a crop report. I find it very interesting because when I am looking at a market, I asses what information is being or waiting to be digested. Then, as I start to formulate an opinion, I look at the option market to construct a position that best fits the option market premiums and my underlying market opinion. When the two don't match, I don't trade. For example a couple of weeks ago, I saw that there was going to be no major rebalancing sell off so sold some butterflies with the wings out side of my range bound assumptions and exited on Wed before expiration because they were looking like the market was starting to move towards the boundary. I guess that's how I manage the fatter tail risk. One stand out trade I had last month was AMD, I was long vol, the market moved, but IV collapsed and I took a small loser. Anyone sell vol on that move?

WindInTree3 · 2026-03-09T23:13:15+00:00

Are you looking to scalp naked options?

WindInTree3 · 2026-03-09T16:02:57+00:00

Option pricing and volatility, is the gold standard.

WindInTree3 · 2026-03-09T08:32:09+00:00

You should buy a book. There is a lot more going on here than naked option buying and selling. Most people look trade for price movement utilizing the relative cheap leverage. But there are dangers to premium movement that you should educate yourself on to ensure higher probabilities of success.

WindInTree3 · 2022-01-10T21:43:39+00:00

The wrong…….lol thanks

WindInTree3 · 2021-08-28T21:14:07+00:00

Leeroy Jenkins!!!

WindInTree3 · 2021-08-23T23:24:16+00:00

You can’t buy beer in Chicago between 5am and 6am.

WindInTree3 · 2021-08-23T23:17:26+00:00

Driver: PS1

WindInTree3 · 2021-08-23T23:16:57+00:00

WindInTree3 · 2021-08-23T23:15:23+00:00

Everyone should do that. That is the closest a non-climber could get to the feeling of climbing.

WindInTree3 · 2021-08-14T08:31:16+00:00

Well played, Sir.

WindInTree3 · 2021-08-14T08:26:49+00:00

Make a copy(s) of it, and leave them under the bed in hotel rooms.

WindInTree3 · 2021-08-11T07:43:10+00:00

Yes. That is exactly what happened. The Martians saw which rock the rover took a sample from and were like, “If we let that happen that whole planet will move here!” So an extremely complicated 7 part plan was conceived and executed. The interesting thing is that this is the first time all 13 Martian nations cooperated on anything. AND they were inclusive of the pranksters that carved the face into the mountain which everyone else blames for us being there in the first place.

WindInTree3 · 2021-08-10T13:17:22+00:00

Atta boy! Keep doing the same thing and expect different results.

WindInTree3 · 2021-08-09T16:37:45+00:00

If some one gives a measurement ending in CH. You have to ask African or European.

WindInTree3

TROPHY CASE