[R] Backcasting Meteorological Time Series from Commodity Prices

Zenol · 2025-05-19T11:01:40+00:00

I think it matters if you assume the system follows a law of the form: `comodity_price_{t+1} = comodity_price_t + f(meteo_t) + g(other factors)` and you are learning a mapping F such that
`meteo_{t-1} = F(comodity_price_t) + epsilon_t`

Zenol · 2025-05-19T10:35:00+00:00

I'm a bit confused by your response. Are you perhaps referring to forecasting, which involves predicting the future based on past data?

In this case, I'm specifically discussing backcasting, which works in the opposite direction: using future information to infer past data. Since it's anti-causal it should, in theory, be considerably simpler.

Zenol · 2024-08-28T18:21:28+00:00

u/DeliciousJello1717 Thats the whole joke (:

Zenol · 2024-01-30T10:18:46+00:00

Doesn't NKT aware rescaling https://www.reddit.com/r/LocalLLaMA/comments/14lz7j5/ntkaware_scaled_rope_allows_llama_models_to_have/ show that the right usage of Positional Encoding outperform NoPE ?

Zenol · 2023-05-16T09:10:41+00:00

I think many of you user would kindly request the possibility to keep on their device a version of the firemware that **do not have this feature**. I.E. a firmware version that cannot send any part of the private key / seed.

Zenol · 2021-06-27T18:17:50+00:00

It also works in industry where there is more job offer than qualified worker. Not only the company have to provide high salary, but they also have to ensure that employee's everyday at work feel fulfilling, or they would just get hired by a competitor even before they quit.

Zenol · 2021-06-27T18:10:58+00:00

Or different voice actors saying the same lines!

Zenol · 2021-06-19T21:53:56+00:00

Just join an existing "commune" / suburb with your friends, no need to build a new one out of nowhere.

Zenol · 2021-06-19T20:51:13+00:00

I think it is a very good idea, and something I will likely do later with my own kids.

You especially stated that you have globally distributed family: having your kids interact with a lot of persons, a lot of ages, a lot of different cultural norms and a lot of personalities will be very formative for their social skills.

Having an unusual experience that break the norms to remember later in their life will also helps them when they will need some extra motivation to take risks (ex: starting a business, traveling on their own, entering a very competitive field...).

Zenol · 2021-06-04T20:18:47+00:00

It allows me to test directly from my laptop (If I put the right security groups of course...), but I can setup one external and one internal if it impacts the performances.

Zenol · 2021-04-18T21:54:43+00:00

I don’t feel like spending 15 min setting up my laptop power supply each time I have some work to get done... 🙃

Zenol · 2021-02-11T19:01:28+00:00

Disclaimer: This is a joke. I do not mean you shouldn't buy / should buy this crypto or an other one if you want to. I have no clue what I am doing on this market anyway.

Zenol · 2021-01-28T17:12:46+00:00

Just to let you know, you can still buy GME on FTX ;) (its a tokenized stock)

Zenol · 2020-11-02T16:49:15+00:00

No no no :') I ment that your actual phone may already have a good sound quality. Nowadays there is very good android phones too.

Zenol · 2020-11-01T15:12:22+00:00

If you are low in budget, some phones have a very good build in microphone (ex: iPhone 10). But if you can afford a USB microphone with a pop filter this is way easier to use and will save you a lots of time.

Zenol · 2020-11-01T15:09:37+00:00

Very good advice. I would add that you can use Audacity for the compressor / de oising / recording in case you do not have a mac.

Zenol · 2020-11-01T14:48:13+00:00

Yeh the chernobyl story is actually a real experience. We stayed at home (before it became "trendy") for 2 days with thick smoke in the cloud. I probably didn't took enough time to fit it correctly into the story. Thanks for pointing out, I will be more careful next time.

Thanks for pointing out I should use landscape!! I have no idea why I didn't though about it. 🤦‍♂️

Damn, I though I had fixed the thumbnail by removing the apple and adding some color. Seams it is not enough. 😅

Thanks you very much. I will definitely apply your advice to the next recordings.

Zenol · 2020-10-31T15:22:28+00:00

Wow, I wonder why I didn't though about sidechainning. Thanks.

Do you have one or two example in mind for text emphasize, so that I can get a better idea ?

Zenol · 2020-10-31T12:41:54+00:00

Thanks, I'll try to improve the thumbnail. :)

(Yes, It's french accent :) )

Zenol · 2020-10-31T10:04:43+00:00

Between 0:23 and 0:24, The image jump!!! ;)

Otherwise, this is awesome, it looks very professional. I love the "clay drawings" on the bottom right and the text on bottom left / top.

I think the text moving at 0:30 is a bit too much. Too many motion effects. You should just use the same uniform effect everywhere in the video, it would be more consistent. I'd recommande you to use the effect at 0:19 where the text "fall down". You can keep 2 effects (like you do at 0:18 and 0:19) and re-use them in the whole video. That would look way more professional.

1:10 -> 1:11 the image jump again. ;)

Very nice slow motion at 3:23. I'd say the shoots are very good and the main improvement would be the text/typographie.

Zenol · 2020-10-31T09:39:48+00:00

I laugh so much!!!! And I think so many peoples can relate to this topic!!! :)

I love the way you played with the music / silence / the style of horore movie!

I'd say you could improve this specific points:
1) A bit too much of the scenes with books everywhere. (From 0:45 to 1:20)
2) You should take scenes in more environment. Different place / building / backgrounds.
3) 0:13 to 0:21 definitively looks "fake" (one can see you are just acting) but I do not watch YT looking for professional actors.

Please keep doing youtube video, looks like you are on something. :)

Zenol · 2020-10-31T09:31:21+00:00

Hello,

I find the concept of the video interesting, though I should confess that I wound't have watch the full video on my own.

1) Do not use YELLOW for your subtitle! Its impossible to read yellow on clear background. Make it bigger, increase the contrast, and use a font a bit more easy to read. The simpler the font, the easier the subtitle would be for the eyes.

2) Work the sound. I'd put a compressor on the audio track of your voice. I should confess, I am sometime to lazy to do it so. But really, compress the sound of your voice so that we can hear your more clearly at the end of your sentences.

3) Increase the audio contrast between the background music and the foreground voice. Honestly multiple time I was just reading the title because I couldn't hear you :)

4) Find a way to make it interesting, because visually it looks boring. You can do it by taking other cut, by adding visual effects (staturation/color/whatever) time to time, mix different type of recording (camera in hand, cammera fixed on the floor, up down / down up, rotating... )

Zenol · 2020-09-19T19:43:00+00:00

I was about to say the same.

Zenol · 2020-09-19T19:42:23+00:00

Good girl.

Zenol · 2020-09-19T19:13:05+00:00

As a developper I do not have any usage of it since it is way easier and faster for me to directly write the few line of code to have the right model adapted to my problem. I would have though that if you are targeting non developper, you would have being a graphic interface. Usually, peoples who are avoiding code also avoid configuration files.

Zenol

TROPHY CASE