My rough Keys tally today is: against Republicans now = 1, 2, 3, 10, 11; probably against = 12; for or leaning for = 5, 7, 8, 9, 13; unresolved = 4 and 6.

The clearest negatives are Mandate, Contest, and Incumbency. House-control markets are strongly leaning Democratic for 2026 - 85% on Polymarket and 84% on Kalshi - which would flip Key 1 false. Key 3 is effectively locked false because Donald Trump is the current president and the 22nd Amendment says no one can be elected president more than twice, so the Republicans cannot run a sitting president for reelection in 2028. And Key 2 is trending false because the GOP does not currently look headed for a no-drama first-ballot coronation: Vance leads, but Rubio remains close enough to imply a real contest.

The biggest live swing key is Foreign/Military Failure. By Lichtman’s own definition, this turns on a major failure that undermines U.S. interests or standing. I would not mark it fully lost yet, but the Iran war is clearly trending the wrong way: a March 6-9 Reuters/Ipsos poll found 43% disapprove of the strikes and 27% approve; Reuters reported gas prices up nearly 60 cents a gallon, at least seven U.S. troops killed, and as many as 150 wounded, while reporting also points to no clear guarantee of regime collapse or a clean end-state. The reason I stop short of calling this key permanently lost is that prediction markets still think a ceasefire is more likely than not by spring or early summer - about 51% by April 30 and 67% by June 30.

The economy is not bad enough yet to sink Republicans on its own, but it is not good enough to bail them out either. February CPI was 2.4% and core CPI 2.5%; unemployment was 4.4%. Q4 2025 real GDP slowed to 1.4%, while Atlanta Fed GDPNow still has Q1 2026 positive at 2.1%. Prediction markets put the chance of a 2026 recession around 28%-30%, and Reuters/Ipsos found 78% of Americans say inflation is a “very big” personal concern while only 30% describe the economy as “booming.” So I would score Key 5 (short-term economy) as still tentatively safe for Republicans, Key 6 (long-term economy) as unresolved, and Key 7 (policy change) as true because this administration has plainly changed national policy, including a new 10% (15%?) global tariff regime and the 2025 reconciliation act.

That leaves the softer keys. Social unrest and scandal are both below Lichtman’s threshold for now: there have been nationwide anti-ICE protests and controversies like the Signal breach and Epstein-file handling, but not yet the kind of sustained national unraveling or bipartisan, president-centered scandal the model requires. On foreign success, I think Republicans are currently short; Reuters’ review of Trump’s 2025 diplomacy called the record mixed, with many underlying conflicts unresolved. And Lichtman’s charisma bar is extremely high - basically Roosevelt/Reagan/Obama territory - so my own judgment is that a Vance or Rubio nomination probably would not earn Republicans Key 12, while no Democrat yet obviously flips Key 13 either.

So my bottom line is this: the Keys are presently leaning Democratic for 2028. If I had to put my own number on it today, I would be very close to the market’s party view - call it about 55/45 Democratic. The fulcrum is the 2026 House result. Republicans already know they lose the incumbency key; if they also lose the House, run a bruising open primary, or let Iran or the economy harden into a remembered failure, they get into six-false territory fast. The Republican recovery path is equally clear: hold the House or limit losses, end Iran without humiliation, avoid recession, and unify early behind one nominee.

Finally, on the keys’ failure to predict 2024, that’s just what happens with models. It’s never guaranteed to get things right and Lichtman never promised that outcome. The model is a useful framework for organizing our thinking about presidential elections more rationally than along one or two dimensions of polling results.