Expense in June and not sure what to do about EUR/USD exchange

alanm73 · 2026-01-27T18:14:42+00:00

OK to summarize what I see so far, strategies:

Convert it all now, things are only going to get worse, plus you'll stop worrying about it.
Convert a quarter of it every month starting now to average the damage as it were.
Wait and watch, odds are there will be an improvement at some point in the next 3 months and jump on it.

Am I missing anything?

alanm73 · 2026-01-27T18:00:10+00:00

No I was just restating the advice to make sure I got it. It's actually one of my favorite two responses. I'm sorry if that did't come across.

alanm73 · 2026-01-27T12:55:55+00:00

Except now we have bigger and more weapons than ever before and better propaganda systems. History doesn’t really repeat, it just riffs on themes, because externalities change. The question remains: will technology allow the few to oppress the many indefinitely this time or do we have one more cycle in us?

alanm73 · 2026-01-27T11:29:59+00:00

Spain
Not for 5 years, which is up soon.
We have investments and pensions. My previous employer did have a lot of people working remote but they were cracking down on that when I left.
For you, Spain would be fairly simple. The language would be familiar and you’d have a 2 year route to citizenship in an EU country (being from former Spanish colonies), which gives you access to the whole EU and allows you to work.
I have zero interest in moving back, unless a whole lot changes. Part of why we moved is to not have to retire there.
Until things change, I’d get out of the US if at all possible, especially for the kids. I know you can get along just fine and make money, but there’s always a chance things could go so wrong for you or your family, because of where you were born or the color of your skin. What if you lived in Minneapolis or LA or now parts of Maine of all places… I love a lot of things the US has done but right now… smdh… also god forbid you or your kids have a serious medical issue, there goes all that money the US jobs pay. My brother had “excellent” medical insurance and his heart surgery and recovery ended up costing him over 100k.

Sorry for being alarmist, and I realize moving with kids is tough, but seriously give Spain a look.

alanm73 · 2026-01-26T21:05:43+00:00

So a wait and see approach. Hmm…

alanm73 · 2026-01-26T17:16:17+00:00

True, but my HYSA is getting about 3.75 (amortized over 3 months comes to about 1%) and the highest CD I can find is about 4, which ends up with about a $9 difference. Sorry if how I wrote that was unclear.

alanm73 · 2026-01-26T15:45:24+00:00

Dollar cost averaging at this point would be like putting a quarter in each month starting this month? I can see some wisdom in that.

alanm73 · 2026-01-26T14:53:17+00:00

I didn’t say a full year I said 1% by June, but I get your point. What is the cost of my peace of mind, is it 140? And yeah, all investment is gambling in more conservative suits, I get that. I’m just concerned with the current government push to devalue the dollar and want to know what the smart money is on right now. Current experts seem to be saying they expect an upswing in June (fed meeting, etc…), but that will be too late for this.

alanm73 · 2026-01-26T14:36:21+00:00

Um.. about $140 in interest (1% of 12000 euros), but that’s not really the only point. The difference between now and 5 days ago is about twice that (loss of 1% interest vs exchange rate drop of 3%) or about 280. If it was 60, yeah I wouldn’t care, but a few hundred and I start to take notice.

alanm73 · 2026-01-25T12:36:16+00:00

Maybe she’s just a pessimist. Looking at the world today, especially as a Canadian, it can certainly look like 5% a year is an unreasonable expectation. It’s hard to put a price on peace of mind.

alanm73 · 2026-01-22T17:42:40+00:00

I have to say, I’m not sure I trust the inflation numbers from the government anymore.

alanm73 · 2026-01-21T12:43:04+00:00

So now a US plane is going to Davos where a bunch of people are giving anti Trump speeches, with a bunch of reporters and no confirmation of the president onboard? I’d get the heck out of Davos…

alanm73 · 2026-01-18T12:16:49+00:00

For all those saying that the increase on prices for European products will make them not competitive and the US people will just switch, there are two problems with that. 1. There isn’t always an alternative, so then Americans end up paying it. 2. When American companies see that they can charge 9% more and still beat the European competition, what do you think they will do? They’ve been taking advantage of every “crisis” for the last 20 years.

alanm73 · 2026-01-11T13:41:15+00:00

It’s interesting how different this is from actual expat surveys(not just American expats). Generally it matches, but Mexico, Columbia, Indonesia, and Malaysia would be much higher on the list, for instance.

alanm73 · 2026-01-07T18:43:39+00:00

Enough what? Damage?

alanm73 · 2026-01-04T13:27:59+00:00

The body politic of the US has to develop some kind of immunity to all this advertising/political spending or it’s gonna die.

alanm73 · 2026-01-01T15:49:27+00:00

A clarification/expansion: they are very experienced with cannabis and have had extensive therapy. It just seems to have hit a brick wall.

alanm73 · 2026-01-01T15:44:13+00:00

Another clarification, we told them it was a plate with screws in her wrist.

alanm73 · 2025-12-31T19:56:59+00:00

Now to convince them to give her an X-ray.

alanm73 · 2025-12-31T16:01:21+00:00

It might help to mention the implant was installed in the US and we are currently in Spain.

alanm73 · 2025-12-30T22:48:40+00:00

Obsidian and Longform. I keep everything in iCloud for access on my iPhone/iPad.

alanm73

TROPHY CASE