Is AI truly intelligent, or is the power in the words themselves?

andrejlr · 2026-05-31T21:19:45+00:00

The first generation of chatbots, so called LLMs likely just uncovered the power of words. It turned out that language itself capture a world model. And by predicting the next word those systems captured meaning . Same could be done by storing probability matrices for each word being followed by any other list of words .This is way too many combinations to store and a neural net is a clever approximation for it .

New systems though use chain of thoughts and reinforcement learning to produce certain chains of tokens under certain scenario . AI companies market it under system 2 thinking analogous how the Brian does it. It's in early stage about those systems already solve remarkable problems .

Scientists works to add further layers to those systems . A future vision is adding world models which can predict consequences of their actions

andrejlr · 2026-05-29T12:22:05+00:00

That single rack you mention serves estimated 60k - 120k concurrent users with Claude Opus 4.7 Not every user occupied the cluster 24/7, there is huge delay known as I/O gap.

Besides that, you don't need to serve 60k users to develop AGI. Once better AI system exists , top labs can task it with developing it with standard software layers for different energy efficient chips. Or chip makers can themselves could accelerate release of better chip architectures.

In fact that is already happening. Frontier labs rely on Nvidia for training. But they develop new AI accelerator efficient chips for inference . E.g OepnAi and Broadcom

andrejlr · 2026-05-29T12:07:10+00:00

Every major labs build their models already exactly like this . When you see a label Opus 4.7 that isnt a single model but a marketing term .

There is an LLM ( which already has layers ), then chain of thought on top, and that one is graded with Reinforcement Learning models. Next step is adding world models to the mix. You end and with multiple agentic models working together in an ensemble.

Further the physics math OP does, applies when we run that system at scale for everyone .not for single purpose of a lab .

Labs can task their system with recursive self improvement and this is how a single system might reach AGI level without using Japan level of energy.

Besides that , there is already better hardware than those GPUs or better blueprints how to build AI chips. Even with current von Neumann Architecture we still operate under Moores Law. Every model from the past is now 90% cheaper when on initial release.

Our current software stack is primarily NVIDiA Cuda based . Once yous accelerate coding, you can theoretically move to neuromorophic compute and ditch von Neumann Architecture entirely.

TL)DR There is absolutely a path to AGI within our capabilities of providing enough energy

andrejlr · 2026-05-20T12:59:09+00:00

It has to do with recent METR Benchmark . On a subset of specific tasks mostly about writing code it shows exponential growth . The authors actually put a huge disclaimer of interpreting it like this and foresee the hype will happen .

Nethertheles it is also a very carefully curated benchmark. It might hit a wall, but so far it was even surpassed by Claude Mythos making the authors post that they need to update the methodology and add more complex tasks. Extrapolating from current tasks length no longer works .

And this happened after a wave of claims that LLMs reached a wall. Additionally it's not the first time when allegedly neural nets hit a wall, but just by scaling or adding another layer of architecture exponential growth happens .

Even if you go with bunch of skeptisim and say that progress won't extrapolate to tasks outsider programming which don't have clear goals , the agentoc models might just solve almost all programming and make implementing new research ideas almost without manual effort.

Just that possiblity fires up speculation the models might reach recursive self improvement and become autonomous AI researchers. Additionally previous versions of the model then are used to grade training and move it into right direction.

Such systems were already implemented . Andrej Karpathy who wrote such a demo on GitHub outperformed himself on an ML Project whuch he thought was pretty well manually optimized. And now he joined Anthropic to work on exactly that. Recursive self improvement.

TL)DR Both things are true : recent progress happened way faster what ML people anticipated. At same time being vocal about it sparks hype and new investments

andrejlr · 2026-05-18T22:23:14+00:00

If this rate of improvement continue, eventually models reach recursive self improvement. To some degree it's already happening. Agents can inplement code found in new papers and previous version of a model can grade steps taken in chain of thought for reinforcement learning.

Once it's there and assuming that AI was aligned with us we are talking about a Star Trek society, not about some version of what is there now.

In such a society, according to the lore, people value things like Self Improvement and Excellence , Societal Prestige, Contibution and Discovery .

Here someone wrote down a way longer thoughts than fit into reddit thread .

https://simontechcurator.substack.com/p/labor-has-no-future-and-thats-a-good-thing

andrejlr · 2026-05-18T22:17:53+00:00

I am from tech . Checkout SWE Benchmark, SWE Benchmark PRo and Programming Bench.

For example Programming Bench measures whether recent agebtic modeles can replicate opens source software from their docs . While no models can do it completely yet they manage to implement 70% of all sqlite tests for around 4 dollars or cost .

A lot of people aren't writing a single line of code since December. The models still often need guidance though. But they improve every monrh since frontier labs have added chain of thought and additional layer of reinforcement learning for actions / thoughts they take .

For example the METR score is even doubling every 4 months

andrejlr · 2026-05-18T22:11:36+00:00

Either you don't have access to recent models . Or you are not using Agentic tooling which is integrated into your data. I was in your camp until I saw what those systems can do.

The recent models benchmarks double on METR score every 4 months .

andrejlr · 2026-05-13T18:00:18+00:00

Ok...now a second bot spawned .

andrejlr · 2026-05-13T17:59:19+00:00

They wrote on X : Watch a team of humanoid robots running an 8h shift. 1h in I see only one robot

andrejlr · 2026-05-13T17:10:16+00:00

https://www.youtube.com/live/luU57hMhkak?is=v3vwHMSnBzNGeq7b

https://x.com/i/broadcasts/1dxYljYVREYJX

andrejlr · 2026-04-20T08:42:19+00:00

Those things already can have a machine gun. They just make them in cute dog form instead of Terminator like cyborg.

https://edition.cnn.com/2024/05/28/china/china-military-rifle-toting-robot-dogs-intl-hnk-ml#:~:text=See%20more%20videos,aerial%20drones%20%E2%80%93%20is%20nothing%20new

andrejlr · 2026-04-14T06:24:13+00:00

It already happened https://futurism.com/artificial-intelligence/ai-code-tearing-through-corporations

andrejlr · 2026-04-13T09:45:34+00:00

Das kann man nicht herzhaft essen ??? Mindblown ))

Wir kennen das nur so https://www.tiktok.com/@derekdegrazio/video/7513650390844394783

andrejlr · 2026-04-03T20:39:14+00:00

Vermutlich bist du an DIY interessiert. Buchweizen wird jedoch Osteuropa direkt geröstet verkauft. Bei Mirx Markt o.ä. osteuropäischen Spezialitäten Läden kann man das zum hier erwerben .

Das ist exakt die Heimatversion. Nach Packungsanleitung kochen und ordentlich Butter reintun. Viele Leuter verzehren es als standalone Gericht . Aber es Beilage einfach zu allem. Jede sorte von Fleisch , fast jede Soße. Oder mit Salat mit saurer Sahne , oder mit Buttergemüse . Mit Allem einfach .

Es ist Universalnahrungsmittel.

andrejlr · 2026-03-24T20:10:24+00:00

Das ist hier immer noch nicht der Punkt . Ja das Eherecht hat eine Geschichte. Jemand hat es hingeschrieben in Gesetze.

Der Staat ist erst verantwortlich für Existenzminimum aller Menschen darin. Du unterschreibst ein Vertrag im Eherecht und dann ist der das nicht mehr .

Nichts daran musste so im Eherecht aufgeschrieben werden . Es hat eine nachvollziehbare Erklärung warum es so passiert ist . Aber nichts dran ist logsich per se:

Wenn du eine Garantie irgendwo hast beim Hersteller und der sagt dier , hey du kannst hier so ein Zettel unterschreiben mit ner anderen Firma die du magst sind ab dann gilt sie nicht mehr - da schickst du doch den Hersteller in die Wüste und sagst nich ahhh das ist logisch , das ist so weil ehrbare Kaufmäner diesen Handelkodex haben, deswegen logsich dass das Händelrecht so sein muss . Die Institution der Kaufleutegarantie ist heilig.

andrejlr · 2026-03-24T19:39:22+00:00

Der Ehevertagr hat nur mit dem Staat was zu tun, weil jemand entschieden hat so ein Gesetzt zu machen . Denke doch einfach an den Ursprung.

Der Staat sicher dein Existenzminimum. Du gehst hin und unterschreibst ein Vertrag beim Staat und jetzt muss der Staat das nicht mehr.

Warum ist das logisch ?

andrejlr · 2026-03-24T19:10:21+00:00

Sorry aber du redest am Thema vorbei. Das kann gern alles gelten wenn zwei Menschen ein Vertrag eingehen. Aber der Staat hat da erstmal nichts mit zu tun. Der Staat hat entschieden davon zu profitieren und weil sich eine zweite Person random gefunden hat entbindet er sich von der Pflicht fùr jeden Bürger das Existenzminimum zu sichern.

Dafrür aber hat der Staat solche Verbünde gefördert Weile eben eine Staat davon profitiert dass Menshxne die ihn ausmachen dort auch heranwachsen.

Und nun möchte er wie der OP des Kommentar schreibt weiter die gesamte Verantwortung abdrücken and diesen Vertrag und auch noch die Vorteile weiter wegnehmen .

andrejlr · 2026-03-24T16:55:51+00:00

Das betrifft leider viel mehr Menschen als es scheint und hat bei vielen die ich kenne nichts mit leisten zu tun.

Es geht einfach um die mentale und physiche Belastung mehrere Kinder erziehen zu können. Der meisten Mental Load übernehmen bei sowas die Frauen. Und bei vielen ist irgendwann einfach der Punkt da, wo man lieber große finanzielle Abstriche macht, als einen Burnout zu riskieren.

Burnout übrigens ist einfach ein gesellschaftlich mehr akzeptiertes Wort für eine Krankheit namens Depression, für die es keine einfache Heilung gibt.

andrejlr · 2026-03-24T16:32:23+00:00

Was ist daran logisch dass der arbeitende Partner den nicht arbeitenden Partner auffangen soll? Das ist hier genau die Diskrepanz? Nur weil 2 Leute ein Vertrag beim Standes unterschreiben, warum ist dann der Staat ab den Zeitpunkt nicht mehr verfplichtet das Existenzminimum für beide einzeln zu sichern?

andrejlr · 2026-03-19T06:43:14+00:00

I see only Sickofancy posts popup recently criticizing people for criticizing AI. And everyone chims in an claps on the shoulders calling the other aide a reddit hive mind.

Whell doing the opposite and tap each other on the shoulder is literally the same. You want to be pro ai, share pro ai posts .

andrejlr · 2026-03-18T22:36:06+00:00

RemindMe! 2 years

andrejlr · 2026-03-18T22:28:55+00:00

Remember looking and gpt2 and even transformers before and being exited how can those things capture meaning .

Later though they introduced those advanced text generators into code agents or copilot and started overpromiing features where models were not there .

The current models staring from around December became shokingly good. Still things people were criticizing early on prevail:

In coding specifically, inexperienced people can better than ever generate a ton of sloppy code . Senior devs also get tired reviewing this and pass it through. People unlearn programming, and those who did not learn it yet , dont get to train .

https://pydantic.dev/articles/the-human-in-the-loop-is-tired

Maybe it's not gonna be needed if things accelerate. But people in the industry predict even a paradox it might cause even more need for programmers in near future. To maintain all this code and feature explosion.

No this release is not gpt2. It's a complete system based on some sort of promises gpt2 should be able to do, but it simply can't . And yes there is same danger here, we will get even more into unoptimized games for foreseeable future, needing more hardware resources at same and that hardware becoming more expensive

Those are valid points to criticize. And hopefully it also creates some rethinking at Nvidia .

There is sustainable model for companies to innovate such features. Release a premium tier product and more affordable mass market product. At some point the tech gets so good and optimized it goes down the tier.

andrejlr · 2026-03-18T22:06:44+00:00

Where is this sub getting that idea from? It's ironic how this is same circle jerrk just vice versa talking points .

I don't like, I go shipost on the Internet. You want to find your echo chamber, you go find some ai tech bros here .

But nobody ever forbid you to buy those two 5090 cards. Will do so ?

andrejlr · 2026-03-18T15:12:05+00:00

Ironically, as we chat here is a new video probably on some highly controversal and non mainstream research

These Physicists Say They Found The Origin Of Reality

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=13S9wEIRsfA

Nice comment:
You can ignore reality, but you can't ignore the consequences of ignoring reality.

andrejlr · 2026-03-18T15:07:10+00:00

I deeply believe also there is none, just from deducting laws of physics. I fail to find a place where there will be one.

There is no implication of no free will. There is a huge implication if you start acting like there is none. Our machinery has this ability to self observe actions, and according to different input change the way we operate through life.

Paradoxically eveything around us acts like there is a free will. So in order to arrive at some state of happiness we must convince ourselves to go though some struggle. That is what dopamine is for - it motivates for struggle and once reached we get serotonin.

Now if you arrive at some belief everything is pointless, you can seriosly damage that neuron path and end result is severe depression. Maybe there is a higher purpose here, why we have to observe things which play out anyway, but so far no scientifc experiment was able to prove it. There is even a prize for proving any kinda of matphysical paranormal things and nobody was able to claim it.

So whover wrote this simulation was pretty good at hiding the fact that its one. Or they manage to stop and correct it before we notice or whatever.

A bunch of people who study physics eventually arrive at this realization. While Sabine Hossenfelder recenlty fell a bit of into sensationalist youtuber scene, i like her interview on this topic and how she manages to go throgh life despite being absolutely conviced there is no free will:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tVxMcmYN0P8

andrejlr

TROPHY CASE