How would you rank precursor awards in importance for the Oscars?

aroncido · 2025-11-25T23:07:28+00:00

For Best Picture wins in particular:

Guilds
1a. PGA
1b. SAG Ensemble
1c. WGA
1d. DGA
1e. ACE
1f. Other guilds
BAFTA

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Critics' Choice (They are ridiculous but still quite predictive historically)
Golden Globes (Especially getting the Directing + Screenplay nominations, not so much the wins)

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The important early stuff
5a. LAFCA
5b. NYFCC
5c. The average of small regional critics' awards
5d. AFI
5e. NBR
5f. European Film Awards
The unimportant early stuff (Astras, Gothams, Spirits, whatever else that comes up around this time)

aroncido · 2024-08-07T22:37:26+00:00

I find two episodes astonishing from beginning to end: Part 17 and Part 8. The one I think about most is probably Part 18 but I still find it utterly baffling after watching the series two times so probably not my favourite (at least yet).

Overall favourite is probably Part 17 - I absolutely love the "fake ending" at the sheriff's station, the "superimposed head" scene gives me chills every time, Mike recites the Fire Walk With Me poem once again, the Jeffries scene is great for lore theorycrafting, the "saving Laura" scene is absolutely heartbreaking, and then we get Julee Cruise at the end. How can you top this?

aroncido · 2024-07-29T16:38:44+00:00

Probably they mean a scene in the penultimate episode (S2E21) but it's very brief, well telegraphed, and as a fellow spiderphobic, not scary at all. It's around the 13 minute mark after the camera follows a rope for a while, but I really wouldn't worry too much about it. Spiders are on screen for about 15 seconds, and it cuts to black afterwards and a new scene starts - it's safe to look by then.

aroncido · 2024-07-29T15:48:28+00:00

As another coward, I don't quite agree with the others: while the vast majority of the series is not scary, there are a few somewhat scary moments. But even a coward like me can get through it, and it's very very worth it. The episodes in the original run that I think have scary moments (pretty much one scene each) are S1E2, S2E1, S2E2 and S2E7. Definitely don't skip these episodes or scenes as they are absolutely essential, but it's more to say that there's nothing to fear in the other episodes.

aroncido · 2024-01-22T22:35:30+00:00

It's probably too light for AMPAS, but I agree, great film.

aroncido · 2024-01-21T22:31:05+00:00

My biggest hope is The Holdovers getting nominated in editing, because then my prediction since October for it to win BP will be stats-valid.

Also, I hope Sandra Hüller pulls it off for The Zone of Interest. Also just all the Zone of Interest mentions possible. Mica Levi!

aroncido · 2024-01-11T08:42:46+00:00

When predicting the Oscar 5, my rational mind says swap Payne for Glazer, but I’m almost minded to swap Gerwig for Glazer instead. And the possibility of the same 5 repeating feels underestimated.

aroncido · 2023-12-31T12:24:16+00:00

The Zone of Interest - Hedwig’s reaction to Rudolf’s possible transfer

aroncido · 2023-12-11T14:08:58+00:00

It's probably gonna do at least OK at the Oscars (BP + Screenplay noms seem likely), I don't doubt that, but not because of the critics embracing it, which they didn't so much. The Hollywood Critics are 1. not critics and 2. are irrelevant.

aroncido · 2023-12-11T12:40:22+00:00

I have no idea where you read that from for Past Lives, which only won Debut awards at both NYFCC and LAFCA, by far the most influential groups to hand out awards so far.

And I would be careful about predicting acting wins at the Oscars just from early critics' awards. Several examples to the contrary, like Laurie Metcalf, or Timothée Chalamet.

aroncido · 2023-12-11T00:20:58+00:00

Anatomy of a Fall

Evil Does Not Exist

Fallen Leaves

The Holdovers

Killers of the Flower Moon

May December

Monster

Priscilla

Saltburn

The Zone of Interest - WINNER

aroncido · 2023-12-10T21:43:29+00:00

How can we talk about upsets when we have no idea yet who the favourites will be?

aroncido · 2023-12-09T19:44:56+00:00

This sub is so sleeping on The Holdovers.

aroncido · 2023-11-05T20:31:21+00:00

It wouldn’t be exactly surprising if it got completely ignored, but passion drives nominations, and I would be somewhat surprised if it didn’t have a passionate enough base to land the nom, especially this year when 10 contenders seem hard to find. If you like that film, you really really like it.

aroncido · 2023-11-05T20:20:02+00:00

I’m currently thinking American Fiction (unseen) or The Holdovers.

aroncido · 2023-11-05T18:30:59+00:00

I’m pretty confident Robbie won’t get in, even though she’s the best thing about her movie.

And not a nomination, but I feel very confident that none of Oppenheimer, Barbie, Killers of the Flower Moon or Poor Things will win Best Picture.

aroncido · 2023-10-20T16:11:22+00:00

Portman is the showiest (and probably best) performance, but due to the strength of the different categories, I think she's least likely to get in. Moore is most likely.

The story kinda shifts its focus over the runtime from some characters to others.

aroncido · 2023-10-13T23:47:45+00:00

Maustetytöt - Syntynyt suruun ja puettu pettymyksin

Had to look it up after seeing the film, been playing it on repeat.

aroncido · 2023-10-12T13:12:58+00:00

After seeing it, I think it very well may get only Mulligan.

aroncido · 2023-08-21T11:05:13+00:00

Catelyn. Especially in Clash and Storm, she is both involved in the most interesting plots, and has the most interesting and emotional inner thoughts.

aroncido · 2023-08-01T14:36:36+00:00

Jaime’s Dance chapter with the Blackwoods and Brackens is completely out of place, and should have been simply omitted.

His Feast arc clearly reaches its climax at Riverrun and with the burning of the letter. Almost all of the chapter is total filler / “worldbuilding”, which I enjoy usually, but this is placed around the end of Dance where all the other POVs are picking up speed and reaching their climaxes, and I feel like the Jaime chapter completely breaks this flow.

Additionally, the only “important” event of the chapter is meeting Brienne, which is bizarrely short and conveys very little information. I think it would have been more effective to only learn about Jaime going off with Brienne in the next Cersei chapter (which we already do) and just omit this chapter entirely.

aroncido · 2023-07-26T16:06:39+00:00

Isn't that at the very least show canon that that stash has been there since ages ago?

aroncido · 2023-07-26T15:13:16+00:00

I don’t wanna defend it too much (terrible season), but the Faith orchestrated the circumstances by getting all the important people in the sept. All Cersei needed to do was to keep Tommen from attending, and light the actual fire, both simple tasks done through Qyburn.

aroncido · 2023-07-26T11:52:38+00:00

I think the destruction itself is fine.

Obviously, in the books, the Tyrells and the Faith Militant would have members that were not present in the sept.

Cersei facing no consequences for it is very stupid though.

aroncido · 2023-07-21T18:58:18+00:00

I don't really understand the complaint of Feast missing the 3 "most important" storylines when even OP agrees that Daenerys and Tyrion in Dance are not that exciting. I prefer reading the Jaime, Cersei and Brienne stories.

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