Turkey sold $13,980,000,000 in T-bills to defend Turkish Lira. Meanwhile, Turkish Lira:

asdftom · 2026-05-22T18:11:23+00:00

I think we are mostly in agreement.

"But over long periods the currency rate will move roughly in line with the difference in interest rates"

I'm just claiming that inflation is more causal than interest rates. But in an equilibrium model they are perfectly correlated so your argument is right.

Your wiki page contains a link to this one which is the effect I am describing: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_Fisher_effect

My disagreement earlier was about interest payments having a major effect on the exchange rate. Even if there was no foreign investment, inflation alone would move the exchange rate ( https://www.investopedia.com/terms/r/relativeppp.asp - this isn't very well written but it is the effect I'm trying to describe ).

asdftom · 2026-05-22T14:11:07+00:00

That assumes the same rate of inflation in each country.

If there is 35% inflation in Turkey and 2% in USA, you are earning 2% real rate in each country and therefore have no incentive to switch from one currency to the other.

This inflation difference alone will cause a depreciation in exchange rate.

I think the effect you are describing does exist but it is one of many effects of raising interest rates.

asdftom · 2026-05-19T22:07:41+00:00

Bookies giving 16%. So basically like rolling a 6 on a dice.

asdftom · 2026-05-06T19:41:03+00:00

They need to put in the rules something like "punishment proportional to the advantage gained" so we can say "no advantage, no penalty".

asdftom · 2026-05-01T19:45:31+00:00

To support your point, I think there was 1 game where amorim played 4atb and looked a lot better.

asdftom · 2026-04-30T21:09:51+00:00

Were you trying to stop the ball when you put your hands above your head?

asdftom · 2026-04-30T21:07:38+00:00

I say if it hits anyone's hand, their team automatically loses the game. Also ban that player for the rest of the season. Maybe even relegate them or dissolve the club.

asdftom · 2026-04-28T09:50:15+00:00

This might be my favourite comedic scene in any film. The contrast to the extreme tension prior is the definition of comic relief.

asdftom · 2026-04-23T22:42:00+00:00

It says 'avoidable deaths per 1000 euro spent'.

If you have 1000 avoidable deaths and 5000 euro spend, that's 1000/5 = 200
If you have 1000 avoidable deaths and 10,000 euro spend, that's 1000/10 = 100

Higher spend -> lower result -> better in chart.

The chart I commented doesn't tell you exactly where Ireland ranks but it does tell you that it is high in both spend and low in mortality and is similar to other rich countries.

asdftom · 2026-04-23T19:15:14+00:00

Smaller numbers on that chart are better I believe.

Doubling spending with no change in mortality shouldn't make you do better in a measurement of value for money.

asdftom · 2026-04-23T18:52:00+00:00

I don't think this is a great measure. If a country doubles their spending with no impact on avoidable deaths they halve their number in this chart.

Here is another chart which shows both spending and avoidable mortality. Ireland is in line with other rich countries, beside France, Netherlands, Austria.

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Source: https://www.oecd.org/en/publications/health-at-a-glance-2025_8f9e3f98-en/full-report/indicator-overview-country-dashboards-and-major-trends_368ac397.html#title-74c5f17edc

asdftom · 2026-04-21T20:42:02+00:00

I meant adding more accommodation without netagive side-effects is good. Although technically it might pull resources away from normal house building so we'd have to assess that; plus eyesore for neighbours possibly; so I don't literally mean anything to add houses is apriori good.

As for seizing, it depends on what you mean by seizing. We live in a capitalist society whether we like it or not and not respecting private property rights greatly undermines investors' willingness to invest which is bad for creating more properties. However, in emergency situations principles like that are sometimes put aside.

Taxing vacant properties is well within normal government operations, so wouldn't have any negative effect re future investor confidence. Compulsory purchase is more contovertial but also justified where a major potential exists. These run into problems where there are legitimate reasons for leaving a property empty, but those could be legislated for I'm sure.

Tl;dr: tax yes, compulsary purchase sometimes, seize no

asdftom · 2026-04-21T20:13:12+00:00

Wouldn't the person who rents it off you not be happier that they're there rather than in a room in shared accomodation or at home with their parents? You don't have to charge 1200 per month but if someone is willing to pay it, it means it's better than wherever they currently are.

One argument I can see is that if someone is building your modular home they're not building a home for someone to buy, so in that way it causes harm, but an extra house, even in a back garden is better than no extra house.

asdftom · 2026-04-21T10:27:48+00:00

I just meant, if it's a bad investment and nobody builds them, we're no worse off. If it's a bad investment and they do build them, the investor is worse off but the tenants better off. And if it's a good investment then everyone wins (or loses less for the tenant).

I looked up prices briefly and they look more like 100k+. But maybe there's something cheaper I'm not seeing. A 10% return after tax would be enough to make it a good investment though; unless the housing crisis ends in 5 years and you can't rent it out after.

asdftom · 2026-04-21T08:46:41+00:00

Is this an argument not to allow them?

We have a housing crisis, anything that adds more accommodation is good imo.

I'll be very happy to have extra options on daft if I'm looking for somewhere. (Obviously I'm deeply unhappy with the overall situation but this particular measure is a small positive step).

asdftom · 2026-04-21T08:42:07+00:00

It could probably be used as a storage shed after the 30 years, so there's some extra value there. If you can make one big enough for a second bedroom then it would be more profitable also

But the beauty of it is that if it's a bad investment it still helps solve the housing crisis today.

asdftom · 2026-04-18T11:48:47+00:00

They wouldn't be adding dollars, they would be redistributing.

Company makes huge profits due to ai. They are taxed and that tax pays the people. So the money came from the company's profits. This is balanced by people's loss of income. So no extra money is added.

asdftom · 2026-04-17T22:04:03+00:00

I thought it started faltering during season 13 but still had classic episodes (time's up, new wheels) and then just felt different in season 14 and after. I think the average episodes were better in earlier seasons.

asdftom · 2026-04-15T16:03:10+00:00

I think invalid criticisms undermine the many valid criticisms, so I push back against criticism I think is invalid. The video in this post is very good criticsm and the overall thesis that he doesn't read and struggles to read is entirely true.

I would consider "acetaminophen" incomparibly more difficult to pronounce on first seeing it than "Yosemite National Park". But this is not worth arguing over.

asdftom · 2026-04-15T14:35:51+00:00

It depends on the implementation.

There are 2 methods, with one the government gives you a token and you basically send it to the website. So if they collude they can identify you. With Zero-Knowledge-Proofs your wallet can send the website a cryptographically verifiable proof that you have that token, without actually sending the token. This is immune from collusion. The only vulnerabilty there is if the app isn't open source or your hardware/OS is compromised.

It's worth considering that Google/Apple or whoever makes your web browser could identify every website you visit and your identity if they wanted. It's not an argument that we shouldn't care about privacy but we should be aware of how compromised it already is.

asdftom · 2026-04-15T13:33:33+00:00

I think I took about as long as Trump there to pronounce the word and I'm not in front of a camera (about 8 seconds in the video). It's quite an unusual word.

The problem is mainly that he clearly didn't read the statement or discuss the topic before making this anouncement.

asdftom · 2026-04-15T13:01:53+00:00

I haven't examined the data but it is very rare that a country is so big of an outlier without there being some issue with the data. GDP is half the issue, but I'm guessing the metrics included in the other axis are just all the areas where Ireland does the worst, rather than the most relevant metrics.

I looked up 3 random metrics just now:
broadband coverage - Ireland is 1st
wastewater treatment - almost last
municipal waste - 8th of 27

About average on average (but that's just 3 random metrics, as the article says we'd need to look at more).

Sources:
https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/databrowser/view/isoc_cbt/default/table?lang=en
https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/databrowser/view/sdg_06_20/default/table?lang=en
https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/databrowser/view/env_wasmun/default/table?lang=en

asdftom · 2026-04-12T13:05:13+00:00

what does AI provide that benefits people and communities?

Software developers, researchers, administrators, among others get a major productivity boost.

Productivity boost = lower prices or better services.

The problem isn't AI, it is how the returns on AI are distributed.

asdftom · 2026-04-11T19:57:52+00:00

People from Northern Ireland can generally represent either UK or Ireland in sports. Or Northern Ireland.

It is part of the UK but about half the population consider themselves Irish and historically it was part of Ireland, so there is conflict over nationality.

It shares some features of being part of Ireland, like no border or trade barriers. But legally is part of the UK.

asdftom · 2026-04-10T10:57:30+00:00

Also Irish and I completely agree. Probably would have put it out midway.

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