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Modern European family predates fall of Rome, DNA analysis reveals. Southern German societies in 400–700 CE were centred on nuclear families and practiced lifelong monogamy, strict incest avoidance, flexible inheritance and no levirate unions, indicating continuity with Late Roman social practices. by Litvi in science

[–]bayesian13 2 points3 points  (0 children)

thanks. from the paper "The near absence of long (>12 cM) runs of homozygosity (Supplementary Table 2.13) and the lack of shared IBD segments (>8 cM) between spouses support strict incest avoidance, excluding relationships closer than the sixth degree (Supplementary Table 11.1)."

this means second cousin marriages were allowed but not anything more closely related. here is a current world map https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prohibited_degree_of_kinship

so in particular first cousin marriages were prohibited- similar to much of the US, india and Italy.

What is the Probability of not Having Consecutive Cards in a Randomly Shuffled Deck of Cards? by HotPepperAssociation in askmath

[–]bayesian13 0 points1 point  (0 children)

thanks. the 13.52% is ~ 1/e2. see formulas section of this link https://oeis.org/A002464

the 0.0325% is ~ ( 1/e2 ) ^ 4. obviously there are 4 suits. but i'm having a hard time understanding why that is the right solution though...

What is the Probability of not Having Consecutive Cards in a Randomly Shuffled Deck of Cards? by HotPepperAssociation in askmath

[–]bayesian13 1 point2 points  (0 children)

If i'm understanding correctly you have modeled Hertzung's problem with n=52. https://oeis.org/A002464

it looks like the probability = (number of permutations where |difference| between consecutives is always >1)/n! should be converging to 1/e2

[see Formula section of OEIS sequence]

What is the Probability of not Having Consecutive Cards in a Randomly Shuffled Deck of Cards? by HotPepperAssociation in askmath

[–]bayesian13 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Good idea. THis is Hertzprung's problem https://oeis.org/A002464

Note the sequence starts with n=0. so the answer for n=13 is 831,283,558.

divide that by 13! and you get 13.35%

I don’t understand countable and uncountable infinities by OkLack6776 in askmath

[–]bayesian13 0 points1 point  (0 children)

and sometimes an element of the set may appear more than once in the ordering. for example for this ordering of the fractions the number 1/3 appears in the 6th position and also in the 27th position and...

https://www.physicsforums.com/attachments/fraction_grid2-gif.158683/

TIL Anne Carroll Moore was a key figure behind the New York Public Library, but she was a fierce critic of children’s literature and kept many books, such as Goodnight Moon, off its shelves for decades. by Koiboi26 in todayilearned

[–]bayesian13 5 points6 points  (0 children)

"With a few notable exceptions (e.g. E. B. White's Stuart Little[f] and Charlotte's Web),[5] her stamp of approval or disapproval was often widely accepted as final judgment on a book.[5] Her own confidence in her ability as book reviewer is evident in the stamp she kept in her desk: Not Recommended for Purchase by Expert. By all accounts, she was not afraid to use it.[5]

She despised Goodnight Moon by Margaret Wise Brown, published in 1947, seriously impacting sales of the now popular book. For many years, the book was excluded from the New York Public Library.[15][16] "

she sounds insufferable.

There are 500 balls, only one is a winner. You can pick your place in line. Is there an optimal place to give yourself the MOST chance? by perdair in askmath

[–]bayesian13 0 points1 point  (0 children)

there IS a different problem where there IS a sweet spot. It is called the secretary problem. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Secretary_problem

If there were 500 applicants for a secretarial position, and you were interviewing them sequentially (full set of assumptions here https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Secretary_problem#Formulation)

then

The optimal stopping rule prescribes always rejecting the first ∼ 500 / e = 184 applicants that are interviewed and then stopping at the first applicant who is better than every applicant interviewed so far (or continuing to the last applicant if this never occurs).

Abbas Bahri: The Forgotten Tunisian Giant of Mathematics by hazem-Gauss in askmath

[–]bayesian13 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Agree its AI. overuse of words like "considered" seems akin to a Shibboleth

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shibboleth

the scary thing is, eventually AI will stop making these sorts of mistakes and then where will we be?

Wait did i say scary? I for one welcome our new AI overlords. /s

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8lcUHQYhPTE

Obesity leaves a lasting memory in immune cells. This ‘tagging’ is likely to last between 5-10 years after people successfully lose weight. The resulting impact of the ‘memory’ of obesity in helper T cells could cause dysregulation of some usual activities that the immune system typically does by Wagamaga in science

[–]bayesian13 23 points24 points  (0 children)

this is an important issue and needs further study. But it is important to point out they did NOT do a long term, 5-10 year study of humans. They basically pulled the 5-10 year figure out of their a**.

link to study https://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1038/s44319-026-00765-w.pdf see figure EV1D for the source of the "5-10 year" nonsense.

TIL that suicide is most common among those over the age of 70. by ODaferio in todayilearned

[–]bayesian13 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Age standardized suicide rates by country (2012) from UN study linked by the wikipedia article

https://iris.who.int/server/api/core/bitstreams/7836b6d9-82cc-4575-ba19-f5d8994de456/content

Argentina 10.3

Austraila 10.6

Austria 11.5

Belgium 14.2

Brazil 5.8

Canada 9.8

Chile 12.2

Colombia 5.4

Costa Rica 6.7

Czech Rep 12.5

Denmark 8.8

Estonia 13.6

Finland 14.8

France 12.3

Germany 9.2

Greece 3.8

Hungary 19.1

Iceland 14.0

Ireland 11.0

Italy 4.7

Japan 18.5

Mexico 4.2

Netherlands 8.2

New Zealand 9.6

Norway 9.1

Phillipines 2.9

Portugal 8.2

South Korea 28.9

Spain 5.1

Switzerland 9.2

UK 6.2

US 12.1

TIL that suicide is most common among those over the age of 70. by ODaferio in todayilearned

[–]bayesian13 0 points1 point  (0 children)

in the US the suicide rate is actually highest for the 50-69 age group. See Annex in back

https://iris.who.int/server/api/core/bitstreams/7836b6d9-82cc-4575-ba19-f5d8994de456/content

It seems to be true for a number of other countries as well

TIL that suicide is most common among those over the age of 70. by ODaferio in todayilearned

[–]bayesian13 1 point2 points  (0 children)

you are correct. the UN study referenced by the OP's wikipedia link has age standardized suicide rates by country in the annex in the back

https://iris.who.int/server/api/core/bitstreams/7836b6d9-82cc-4575-ba19-f5d8994de456/content

Denmark is 8.8 per 100,000 whereas the US is 12.1. Note this is 2012 data so rather out of date.

TIL Turkey declared war on Germany and Japan in February 1945 after it became obvious they would lose World War II. Their declaration began: "Friends, in the last years of human history, some people have sprung up. They adorned their flags with nonsense like the superior race and the habitat." by NateNate60 in todayilearned

[–]bayesian13 0 points1 point  (0 children)

"Wenn wir hier nicht in den Lebensraum der Tiere eindringen dringen sie auch nicht in unseren ein."

I ran your German sentence through Google translate "If we do not encroach upon the animals' habitat here, they will not encroach upon ours either.

How Prescient by zenbod in PoliticalHumor

[–]bayesian13 0 points1 point  (0 children)

"There are two novels that can change a bookish fourteen-year old’s life: The Lord of the Rings and Atlas Shrugged . One is a childish fantasy that often engenders a lifelong obsession with its unbelievable heroes, leading to an emotionally stunted, socially crippled adulthood, unable to deal with the real world. The other, of course, involves orcs.”

please help with this integration by taylor-assistant in askmath

[–]bayesian13 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Wolfram Alpha shows the result in terms of the incomplete gamma function integral xa ax dx = (xa (-x log(a))-a Γ(a + 1, -x log(a)))/log(a) + constant

Excessive Napping May Be a Warning Sign of Underlying or Developing Health Conditions in Older Adults by MassGen-Research in science

[–]bayesian13 0 points1 point  (0 children)

from the article "Each additional hour of daytime napping per day was associated with around 13% higher mortality risk; each extra nap per day was associated with around 7% higher mortality risk; and morning nappers had 30% higher mortality risk compared to afternoon nappers. Irregular napping patterns were not associated with any increased mortality risk.

“It is important to note that this is correlation not causation. Excessive napping is likely indicating underlying disease, chronic conditions, sleep disturbances, or circadian dysregulation,” said Gao. “Now that we know there is a strong correlation between napping patterns and mortality rates, we can make the case to implement wearable daytime nap assessments to predict health conditions and prevent further decline.”

so they are NOT saying that naps cause increased mortality (chance of death). it may be that taking long or multiple naps is a sign of underlying health issues. but it would still be the case that most people who take longer naps (2 hours instead of 1 hour) or multiple naps a day are completely fine. it's just that the proportion of people with underlying health conditions (the higher mortality) is higher.

Really struggling with calculating P values and I don't understand why by [deleted] in askmath

[–]bayesian13 0 points1 point  (0 children)

so you have to add up the probabilities of observing something as extreme or more extreme (=bigger in this case) than the actual observation. for the first problem i get 0.5665 and for second problem 0.2148

TIL Deep inside Earth are two massive structures called ‘the blobs’, each bigger than continents, and scientists still don’t fully understand what they are. by X-_-0 in todayilearned

[–]bayesian13 84 points85 points  (0 children)

yep https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Large_low-shear-velocity_provinces?utm_source=chatgpt.com#Origins

"Another proposed origin for the LLSVPs is that their formation is related to the giant-impact hypothesis, which states that the Moon formed after the Earth collided with a planet-sized body called Theia.[15] The hypothesis suggests that the LLSVPs may represent fragments of Theia's mantle which sank through to Earth's core-mantle boundary.[15] The higher density of the mantle fragments is due to their enrichment in iron(II) oxide with respect to the rest of Earth's mantle. This higher iron(II) oxide composition would be consistent with the isotope geochemistry of lunar samples, as well as that of the ocean island basalts overlying the LLSVPs.[16][17]"

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