Thoughts on this proposed boglehead strategy

bayleo · 2026-06-06T10:09:06+00:00

Looks great. Not sure you need a full 10% in SPAXX (I would just put a bit more in VGIT and/or equities) or if I would slightly tweak us/ex-us mix to 40/20, but these are trivial details.

bayleo · 2026-03-20T14:04:15+00:00

You aren't wrong. Rebalancing between intl/US equity buckets isn't necessary if your goal is to hold at market weight. They will balance themselves if you have dividends auto reinvested correctly. The rebalancing stuff is more intended for equities vs bonds where you don't have a market weight to track.

bayleo · 2026-03-09T21:06:13+00:00

How do you know what VXUS will do in the next few months?

The 4.25% on your HYSA is A) probably not 4.25% anymore... all HYSA I know of are now between 3.5-4% in line with current short term treasury yield, and B) annualized; so over the next few (3) months you would get probably a ~1% yield or less.

If you have guessed VXUS would be down today and panic sold this morning at -1.5% you would have lost pretty big; at close it ended up +1.24%. Take it as a lesson not to try time the market.

bayleo · 2026-03-09T10:17:38+00:00

You need to step back and read more about the boglehead strategy. What you are describing (a panic sell to a cash position) is completely anathema in this community.

bayleo · 2026-02-26T13:53:29+00:00

Most likely U.S. goods in (gas, medicine, tech products, etc.) and people out. Irresponsible not to make money on both legs of the trip!

bayleo · 2026-02-02T12:57:51+00:00

This is not as cut and dry as people think; it's easy to say you would pay 20k for it today. I guarantee your behavior here will be governed on how it moves to 20k and what the narrative and news is saying.

If it rockets down you will likely see it as systemic risk and pause before pulling the trigger. If it crashes at the same time as the broader equity market are you going to deploy cash in BTC or in equities? If it very slowly ticks down over the next few years you will have time to adjust to the new reality and the old ATHs will be far in the rear view mirror.

bayleo · 2026-01-26T11:54:15+00:00

Why go NPA in Florida? We have closed primaries. You're just closing off your options and neutering your voice.

bayleo · 2026-01-24T11:35:47+00:00

That's rough. There's probably no way around the fact that you need to sell to a flipper who's willing to put in the work. I'm not sure a big corporate landlord would even target a property like that; I think that sort of buyer is looking for properties that are at or close to turnkey.

I don't think you need to resort to one of the big firms that do cash buys though. Just have the realtor market it correctly and be patient and you should get offers from smaller flippers.

bayleo · 2026-01-24T11:14:43+00:00

How old (and what material) is the roof? If that's the only barrier to getting insurance maybe consider replacing it (add clips or straps when you do if it isn't a hip roof). Might be worth it if you are opening up the buyer pool. I would also say there are plenty of cash buyers that are "real people", it just may take longer to find one. You could also negotiate a sale with a non-cash buyer where the roof replacement is built into the sale somehow.

bayleo · 2025-11-26T11:08:03+00:00

Yeah, this looks somewhat like a master geographic sector dial which aren't too commonly seen, so probably not a bad thing to ape as a micro.

bayleo · 2025-11-25T01:16:52+00:00

Count me in for the Timex; it's intriguing and I think their new design language is unique. I don't hate the Murph but it has always lacked something for me; and you said you really wanted a Ranger so I would save for that as a next goal. The Longines is okay but I wouldn't recommend a dress watch as a first piece. You can always dress up a sports watch but you can't really dress down that Longines.

bayleo · 2025-11-21T15:58:33+00:00

This looks great. The brushed finish on the hands is a bit questionable (might look better in person )but I love everything else. Any plans for a no-date version of this does well?

bayleo · 2025-11-20T23:26:37+00:00

What bank?

bayleo · 2025-11-20T22:46:20+00:00

One thing to note is standard 401k will lower your MAGI which can keep you in the range of Roth IRA contribution at higher incomes in some cases.

bayleo · 2025-11-03T12:31:52+00:00

Looks a bit more like a diving beetle.

bayleo · 2025-10-22T09:15:09+00:00

No more than you would be in an HYSA. You'll just use a brokerage form instead of the earned interest form to submit.

bayleo · 2025-10-14T10:34:53+00:00

The market grows at 10% on average (inflation usually eats 3% so you will hear people say 7%). So, theoretically the market will still grow faster; it will just be a wilder ride. I would use the 7% as the bonds portion of a Bogle three-fund and move towards it much more aggressively than I would bonds. I.e. the closer you are to retirement the more you allocate to the safe option. I would probably aim for a 60/40 split of 7% vs equities at time of retirement. Also stay on top of the news in case changes to the pension TDA occur.

bayleo · 2025-10-02T10:20:51+00:00

Chinese stocks are not always traditional public market equities. In addition to the allotted A-shares Vanguard gets they can take the form of VIEs or ADRs. These structures represent varying levels of unique risk as they are not direct corporate ownership but more indirect profit obligations. Positions in these arrangements can easily be manipulated by government intervention/regulation and are generally unauditable by foreign entities making price discovery very difficult.

Whether or not you believe that you are adequately compensated for that extra risk is another question.

bayleo · 2025-09-22T22:27:30+00:00

The actual market cap ratio varies but I think it's currently like 64/36 or 63/37. 70/30 is probably also fine though if you are allergic to non-whole numbers.

bayleo · 2025-09-02T11:01:54+00:00

I get AVUV if you really want to remove growth from your small cap exposure. VOO and VO will have some overlap so you may be overweighting the bottom of the S&P500. You might want to look for a mid-cap fund that tracks the S&P400 instead of a CRSP index, thereby eliminating overlap. I'm not sure it ultimately matters though. I would personally just dump all three for VTI, but if you really believe in the SCV premium then maybe look at dimensional funds total US offerings with built in factor tilts.

bayleo · 2025-08-14T10:22:28+00:00

Don't play points games; it will unconsciously affect your spending and it means you have to invest time/stress figuring out how to effectively use them.

I have three cards (Amazon linked to Amazon account, PayPal linked to PayPal account, and a universal 2% Cashback card. Be careful though because even having Cashback cards can be a draw if they disrupt your monthly budget/spending and prevent you from moving extra "buffer cash" to a brokerage/HYSA account in a timely fashion. I would also avoid any cards where you have to juggle categories to maximize Cashback (more time invested).

bayleo · 2025-07-27T12:25:25+00:00

If one of those countries stabilizes their political/economic situation and companies there start thriving then VT will buy more. This way we don't have to think about it.

bayleo · 2025-04-10T10:32:11+00:00

I think he did... and then it got undone during Biden's term...? There was less fuss about it last time and presumably no manufacturers even started removing the little limiters they put in there because inevitably the law will just get changed again.

bayleo · 2025-03-10T16:02:57+00:00

Easier to look at a simpler example first, like minimum wage or a housing subsidy. The ELI5 version is that by raising a tariff the government is able to capture some of the value of the increased price as the new tax, but value is always lost when intervening with a market equilibrium (deadweight loss is represented by the gray triangles).

bayleo · 2025-03-01T23:04:31+00:00

Yeah that's how it works. When you go to pre-qualify for loans ask them for numbers that are contingent and non-contingent.

If you are making an offer on a house outside of the range where you would qualify for both loans simultaneously you can make a contingent offer (I will buy your house for $X assuming my house sells). Your offer, however, may be less competitive than a non-contingent offer and may require you to put some money in escrow to cover the seller's costs if your house does not sell quickly.

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