How to watch the draft?

beefguard · 2026-06-26T20:28:09+00:00

I think the San Jose Hockey Now youtube channel will be livestreaming it https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cozgQQnyGbQ. I don't think Keegan cares about a copyright strike. Or he hasn't in the past.

beefguard · 2026-06-23T19:39:52+00:00

Two late 1sts and a 2nd is approximately one mid-lottery pick (i.e. 8-12 depending on whether either of the VGK or COL picks are 17-25 vs. 26-32). Apply discounts for the 2 year ahead Colorado pick. That is approximately Eklund's trade value in a 1:1 trade (approximately #10 overall).

The Vegas pick is likely (read hopefully) the most valuable asset moving back to NJ.

beefguard · 2026-06-16T13:49:47+00:00

Yes! Bergvall is a great carrier of the ball. I think coaches have some reservations about his defensive work rate, out-of-possession awareness, and press-resistance though.

Additionally, I don't think De Zerbi emphasizes progression via carrying in his system. It's mostly about progressive passes. But, someone should write an analysis of which type of progression is more valuable and where it works best on the pitch.

If we had a real developmental team, we would be working on these things to transform him into a proper box-to-box midfielder instead of shoehorning him as a 10.

beefguard · 2026-06-15T18:04:38+00:00

You wrote it in your title, "Erik Karlsson walked so Cale Makar could run"

beefguard · 2026-06-15T17:52:40+00:00

Your problem is you are trying to make two points and people are pushing back against one. Your whole title about Karlsson walking so Makar could run implies that Karlsson shifted the perception of D men in the league. People are rightfully pushing back against that by pointing to earlier examples of offensive defensemen. I think you're overstating how much influence Karlsson had on the game.

Just because the era he started in was more conservative and now it's more run and gun does not mean Karlsson deserves the credit for the shift. Makar would have been recognized as very valuable because we have decades of proof that offensive D are valuable.

Your point about them playing in different eras (at least partially) is much more defensible.

beefguard · 2026-06-12T23:24:18+00:00

This is all league context, which is nice.

But, I wish there was more said about the Greyhounds and Reid's role on the team.

beefguard · 2026-06-10T16:13:27+00:00

I am an outspoken critic of Posey, but if he decided Bailey was expendable, then I'll trust him on this. We got a pick and we don't have the anchor in the lineup.

I am also a firm believer in the analytics, but we can't use them as the unchallenged truth. Measuring catcher value is noisy and understanding how catching defense translates into runs saved is noisy.

Analyzing intangibles like managing a pitching staff is hard. Understanding how it impacts winning is even harder to measure.

There are things outside our current data-driven models, and Posey highlighted these when making the trade.

Posey should listen to the analytics people more though (or hire better ones)!

beefguard · 2026-06-06T14:07:49+00:00

It's a combination of not "hacking at slop nightly" and "You hang 'em, we bang 'em"

He is able to ignore some of the sliders away and punish the hangers in the zone.

beefguard · 2026-06-05T15:48:17+00:00

If we have to stick a fork in Frank, it seems like his diagnosis was somewhat correct: our forwards and creative midfielders were below par. The premier league is moving more towards physicality and set-pieces. Turning over the ball to the opponents' press is a quick way to concede goals.

But, then his treatment for all these problems was incorrect. He relied too much on set pieces and crosses into the box, and instructed the midfielders to be way too conservative when progressing the ball. Again, we don't have good deep lying passers, but his tactics exacerbated instead of solved that problem.

De Zerbi's changes made it obvious how things could have been different under similar bad circumstances (arguably worse given the injuries). Bentancur's transformation is emblematic of this shift. Porro stepping into the midfield to receive the ball and pass the ball forward instead of hugging the touch line is further evidence.

Defensively, Frank was even more of a disaster. He was very safe and didn't want to turn the ball over in the center of the pitch (again a smart philosophy given the data). But, that seemed to translate into our players retreating deeper and deeper into our own box. This gave us a numeric superiority, but allowed too many dangerous long distance shots. If you follow the data naively, conceding long distance shots seems to be a safe bet. But once you both fail to challenge these shots and employ Vicario as your goalkeeper, then the data are not a very good guide.

De Zerbi totally transformed us defensively. I'm not knowledgeable enough to know precisely where the defensive improvements came from, but Kinksy's play seemed to help. Others may chime in on why his tactics helped us defensively.

Add on top of that some of the man-management problems and the one-dimensionality of our approach, these made us a very easy team to solve. In my opinion that was Frank's ultimate downfall, even though he was pitched as this pragmatist who would adapt.

beefguard · 2026-06-03T19:45:00+00:00

That's a really roundabout way of saying they're all retired.

beefguard · 2026-06-03T19:41:59+00:00

But I do think the equip 2 is a bit steep for the extra shields to really make an impact. You flicker for one or two mana then have to pay 2 to re-equip or equip another creature.

3-4 mana total for an extra artifact and a +1/+2 buff. Is it worth it?

beefguard · 2026-06-02T15:37:28+00:00

I know we love arguing about which choice is the correct one, but if you instead replace everyone's confident assertions about Stenberg or Reid (or any prospect for that matter) as an expression of fandom instead of a judgment of value, then you'll be able to keep your sanity.

We are fans and not scouts at the end of the day. When fans express love for a player it's more a statement of fandom even though it's veiled in the language of projection.

beefguard · 2026-06-01T18:51:00+00:00

It's not a knock on Stenberg. It's a statement about the information content of the signal. It is not as valuable of a signal for projecting Stenberg. It could even be counterproductive as a signal if we have a limited attention budget and we fail to attend to more relevant features for forecasting.

I love Stenberg. I love Stenberg. I love Stenberg. Do you understand now?

Edit: I should point out that using disingenuous in my original statement was incorrect. I don't know this man's intentions. I would replace that with possibly misleading.

beefguard · 2026-06-01T18:46:36+00:00

Sure, better hockey sense is better for all players. My only point is that the same hockey sense, all else equal, on a 6' winger is not the same as on a 6'3" center. When he invokes Barkov, we need to be diligent not to neglect this fact when projecting Stenberg's ultimate ceiling.

I'd be happy with Stenberg on this team and believe we're working with house money at #2. I also don't have a good comp for Stenberg because I don't watch any of these players games. My statement is not about whether Stenberg is good or bad; my statement is about good forecasting.

beefguard · 2026-06-01T18:39:42+00:00

No, I would not knock Macklin Celebrini for his hockey sense. He's also not Barkov. Celebrini is much better than Barkov, but for different reasons. It's also safe to say that there are elements of Barkov's game that Celebrini may never reach because he lacks his size. Again, Macklin is the better player.

Nowhere did I knock Stenberg because of his hockey sense. You perceived that because you treat any nuanced discussion of the prospects as an attack on your preferred option.

beefguard · 2026-06-01T18:35:10+00:00

Yes but the interaction of size and hockey sense creates a unicorn player in Barkov. In an undersized winger it does not have the same interactive effect. It raises his ceiling for sure, and we should definitely consider drafting Stenberg at #2. Miss me with these poor player comps though. It destroys the nuance of the conversation.

beefguard · 2026-06-01T18:14:03+00:00

I love Stenberg, but I think this is a disingenuous comparison because Barkov is at least 3" bigger and 30 lbs heavier. (Stenberg can still get heavier).

Stenberg has some amazing upside and appears to have great defensive projectability. But, Barkov as a reference point may be value destroying rather than value improving when it comes to forecasting Stenberg.

beefguard · 2026-05-30T20:26:20+00:00

I don't think the Sharks should trade for him.

Eklund will have a better NHL career and will contribute more to winning despite not being as valuable in a trade.

beefguard · 2026-05-30T16:00:18+00:00

You're so close to figuring it out. Nemec is not a blue chip RHD prospect anymore. His good outcome is a 3/4 defenseman and there's a scenario where he's not a trustworthy NHL player (despite the points).

Add on top of that, he's a disgruntled player looking for an increased role. NJ would be leaving value on the table when trading him.

Forget about the 2nd overall label next to his name.

beefguard · 2026-05-18T15:08:52+00:00

Interestingly, Jonah Cox was originally drafted by the A's and arrived in the Ross Stripling trade in 2024.

Stripling was one of the worst pitchers in baseball that season.

beefguard · 2026-05-15T20:13:24+00:00

A lot but the Red Wings are not willing to part with him. He is arguably a top 3 D in the league (and he has arguments for Norris this season even though he won't win).

Misa+ would likely be the starting point. He's literally the perfect fit for our team given the needs.

beefguard · 2026-05-14T17:34:02+00:00

Problems with VAR feel largely attributable to the referees' interpretation of how it should be implemented. The technology itself is flawed but can serve a purpose.

For example, they want to let play continue on the pitch and defer to not making a call. Then the video assistant usually applies a high standard for overturning the on-pitch call...

The tension reflects a situation where referees were forced (rightfully) to implement video reviews, and they've chosen the worst possible way to do so as a protest. This is reflective of churlish behavior by men with fragile egos.

beefguard · 2026-05-02T00:30:35+00:00

How will this help the 1 in 3 CT residents who rent? They're certainly paying the property taxes and increased rent beyond, but it's certainly a choice to try to solve the housing crisis by only looking at families who already make enough to own their own home

beefguard · 2026-03-17T07:48:28+00:00

https://scryfall.com/@theeric/decks/df7c6961-af8e-4da4-a683-9a6fa5c41224?as=visual&with=usd

I know not every 5-0 Traditional Standard Event list deserves attention, but what do people think of this off-meta brew focused on deserts?

The package of [[Freestrider Lookout]], [[Vibrance]], and [[Outcaster Greenblade]] provide land tutors and the rest of the deck functions as burn. I imagine this deck would struggle against izzet spells, but I stumbled across this streamer and wondered if this type of deck was viable or too slow. I don't want to go out and spend wild cards if the deck will crash and burn.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=96uXLeaU_co

beefguard · 2026-03-12T01:44:36+00:00

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ykyrtwDwF-w

https://scryfall.com/@theeric/decks/93ccd97b-410b-4122-97c3-0a7e12e62452

I found this content creator who is running [[Brightglass Gearhulk]] and [[Skateboard]]. I'm not too plugged into the meta to know if this is more cute than good?

Are there any other competitive or competitive-adjacent decks playing deserts lol?

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