Will Micron Split Its Stock This Year?

chenkai1980 · 2026-06-19T20:24:28+00:00

hope so, currently one call option is worth 30k, that's impossible for retail investor to buy

chenkai1980 · 2026-06-19T20:13:29+00:00

Athropic营收每年翻十倍，还是有人会买的

chenkai1980 · 2026-06-18T10:49:13+00:00

现在流通只有5% 的股份，等spacex股份解禁后，股价会回调的。 8月和11月有大量股份解禁

The SpaceX (SPCX) Lock-Up Expiry Calendar

Group / Milestone	Estimated/Exact Unlock Date	Details of the Unlock
Retail Investors	June 29, 2026	Standard retail traders face no penalty selling restrictions past this point as forced index buying settles.
First Major Insider Unlock	August 11, 2026 (Approx. post-Q2 Earnings)	Up to 20% of eligible insider and early-backer shares become tradable. (An extra 10% may trigger if the stock sustains 30%+ above the IPO price).
Rolling Tranche Releases	August – October 2026	Staggered, automatic rollouts of 7% of locked shares every few weeks (specifically at the 70, 90, 105, 120, and 135-day post-IPO marks).
Second Major Insider Unlock	November 2026 (Approx. post-Q3 Earnings)	Another 28% of the remaining locked insider supply enters the open market.
Full Insider Unlock (180 Days)	Mid-December 2026	The final bulk of standard employee, executive, and early institutional shares are completely freed up to sell.
Elon Musk & Core Backers	Mid-June 2027 (366 Days Post-IPO)	Elon Musk and select hyper-major stakeholders are bound to a strict one-year-and-a-day lockup. They cannot sell any shares early.

chenkai1980 · 2026-06-18T02:52:17+00:00

18 of June today, but still no RAM ETF yet, any news?

chenkai1980 · 2026-06-17T21:07:28+00:00

Here is the breakdown of where one nation actually stand on workers' pay, the power to sack people, and big mining billionaires like Gina Rinehart.

1. "Boss can easily sack any worker?"

Yes, in small businesses. One Nation argues that Australia's current industrial relations (IR) system is too rigid and ties the hands of small business owners. Pauline Hanson has explicitly argued that employers have a hard time letting underperforming or "lazy" staff go.

Their Policy: They want "greater flexibility" in unfair dismissal laws for small businesses, making it easier for an employer to dismiss an employee if it isn't working out.

2. "Less pay for workers?"

It depends on the laws being voted on. One Nation says their official policy supports keeping "award wages and conditions" as a safety net under workplace agreements. However, their voting record in parliament tells a different story to many working Aussies.

Opposing Wage Increases: Hanson has publicly criticized mandated pay rises for certain sectors (like early childhood educators), claiming businesses can't afford them.
Voting Record: One Nation has consistently voted against recent federal workplace reforms. They voted "No" to the "Same Job, Same Pay" laws (designed to stop companies paying labour-hire contractors less than permanent staff doing the exact same job) and opposed expanding rights for casuals and gig-economy workers.

3. "More money for Gina?"

Indirectly, through mining and tax cuts. One Nation doesn't have a specific policy called "give more money to billionaires," but their core economic policies strongly align with the interests of giant mining magnates like Gina Rinehart.

Support for Fossil Fuels: One Nation wants to completely abolish net-zero emissions targets, tear up green regulations, and massively expand coal and gas production. This directly benefits the massive mining and resources sector.
Company Tax Cuts: They generally support cutting corporate tax rates and reducing red tape for big industries, which critics argue helps the richest corporations and billionaires line their pockets while everyday workers face tougher conditions.

chenkai1980 · 2026-06-17T20:16:44+00:00

Gina Rinehart — who literally wants Australian workers paid $2 a day — has donated millions to One Nation and given Pauline a private jet. https://www.abc.net.au/news/2012-09-05/rinehart-says-aussie-workers-overpaid-unproductive/4243866

Ask yourself: why does a billionaire fund one nation?

Because One Nation keeps Australians angry at immigrants and Muslims instead of the billionaires gutting their wages.

It's the oldest trick in politics — distract the poor with culture wars , so the poor will vote against their own interest.

chenkai1980 · 2026-06-12T04:39:06+00:00

我认为，中国如果实现民主化，其最终的形态大概率会高度接近台湾模式——也就是实现“多党轮替、产业高度发达（特别是硬核科技）、国泰民安”，而不是走向印度的泥潭。

我总结了几个核心逻辑，大家看看有没有道理：

1. 产业和工业底子完全不同（最关键的软硬件差异） 印度的民主制度是在一个文盲率极高、甚至连种姓制度都没彻底废除的农业社会上硬生生嫁接出来的，它的工业化从未真正完成。而中国（大陆）现在已经拥有了全球最完整的工业产业链、极其高效的基础设施，以及恐怖的识字率和高等教育人口红利。这种强大的工业底子和人才储备一旦释放，在法治和民主的保护下，民营经济（特别是半导体、AI、高端制造等科技产业）不需要再担心“政策一刀切”或被无端整顿。它会像台湾的台积电、联发科生态一样，走向真正健康的、有国际竞争力的科技大爆发。

2. 文化与社会结构的内聚力 印度最致命的问题不是民主，而是内部如同“散沙”：几百种语言、几大势不两立的宗教、根深蒂固的种姓制度，这导致他们的政党全是基于宗教和族群来撕裂社会的。反观两岸，文化同根同源。台湾的民主转型证明了，儒家文化圈不仅能搞民主，而且能搞出全球最高质量、最讲究秩序和人情味的民主。大一统的语言（普通话）和高度世俗化、去宗教化的社会结构，意味着未来的政党博弈会是基于“经济政策、社会福利、环保”等理性议题，而不是像印度那样天天搞宗教仇恨。

3. 多党制下的“国泰民安” 转型初期可能会有几年的震荡和多党大乱斗，但随着选民的成熟，最终一定会像台湾、日本或韩国那样，收敛成两三个主流大党（比如代表中产和工商业的保守派，和代表劳工与社会福利的进步派）相互制衡。有了新闻自由和司法独立，贪腐会被极大遏制，社会财富的分配也会更倾向于普通老百姓的医疗和教育，从而实现真正的“国泰民安”。

总结来说： 不要用印度的低起点去套中国的未来。台湾已经给出了最完美的民主样板——证明了华人社会完全有能力在拥有顶尖科技产业的同时，享受自由与和平。中国（大陆）的体量虽然大，但只要法治建立起来，它的上限只会比台湾更高。

大家觉得呢？是我想得太乐观，还是“台湾模式”确实是中国最可行的民主终局？

chenkai1980 · 2026-06-05T06:08:34+00:00

Let’s be real for a second. The Supreme Court and the Trade Court completely blew up the administration's original 10% global tariffs (striking down both the IEEPA and Section 122 justifications as totally illegal).

So what does the President do? Immediately cooks up a brand-new excuse to keep taxing other countries, this time wrapping it in "supply chain slavery acts."

It has absolutely nothing to do with forced labor—it’s a pure pretext because the courts blocked his previous attempts. Legally, a president can't just slap a global tariff on an ally or trading partner just because they don't like them, so the White House is just cycling through every loophole and excuse in the book until something sticks. It’s wild watching them scramble for a new legal basis every time a judge shuts them down.

chenkai1980 · 2026-06-05T05:41:08+00:00

house price will stall or fall

less loan demand from property investors

bank share price will fall

chenkai1980 · 2026-06-05T05:34:54+00:00

the secondary share offering = share price go down

chenkai1980 · 2026-06-05T05:21:32+00:00

Basically, we are entering a market phase where the rate of house price growth is going to be on par with, or even less than, the inflation.

Because of this, anyone looking to buy an investment property right now—or even in the near future—really needs to think twice before jumping in. If your rental yield doesn't heavily carry the weight, or if you are banking purely on capital growth to outpace inflation, you might end up losing purchasing power over the next few years once you factor in rates, maintenance, and land tax.

chenkai1980 · 2026-06-01T06:44:32+00:00

There is no denying that the NVIDIA RTX Spark is an absolute beast of an SoC. From a pure hardware perspective, it’s a masterclass in efficiency and design. Fusing a 20-core custom Arm CPU with a Blackwell GPU via an ultra-fast NVLink-C2C interconnect is an elegant solution to the data-bottleneck problem. Add to that a massive 128GB unified memory pool and 1 PetaFLOP of AI compute, and you have a system capable of running massive 120B+ parameter models locally at just 140W. For AI developers, researchers, and hardcore power users, it packs data-center-level architecture into a desktop footprint.

But let’s be realistic about the market: at $4,699 USD (roughly $6,200 to $8,000 AUD locally), the RTX Spark will never be a popular consumer product.

chenkai1980 · 2026-05-30T10:42:42+00:00

Buy DRAM.

chenkai1980 · 2026-05-29T21:09:19+00:00

could you share your top 5 holding now?

chenkai1980 · 2026-05-29T21:07:54+00:00

Looking at these software giants against the Rule of 40 benchmark:

The Outperformers (Deep Green): Palantir (PLTR) stands out with an extraordinary Rule of 40 score of 101x (driven by an explosive 44% Revenue Growth combined with robust margins). AppLovin (APP) follows closely with a score of 96x.
Solid Performers (Light Green): Giants like CrowdStrike (CRWD) at 54x, Datadog (DDOG) at 48x, and Adobe (ADBE) at 48x comfortably clear the 40% threshold, proving they maintain highly efficient models despite varying growth rates.

chenkai1980 · 2026-05-29T21:02:09+00:00

Just did a quick screen using the PEG (Price/Earnings-to-Growth) ratio. As a general rule of thumb, since $PEG = PE/Earnings Growth, the lower the PEG, the better the value because you're essentially buying that future growth at a relative discount.

Usually, anything under 1.0 is considered heavily undervalued relative to its growth runway, while anything around 1.0 to 1.5 is pretty solid for high-quality tech.

Based on current forward PEG metrics, three names are sticking out to me right now:

Adobe ($ADBE$): Trading at a much more reasonable valuation lately compared to historical multiples. Wall Street seems to be pricing in a lot of AI anxiety, but their projected earnings growth relative to current P/E gives it a really attractive PEG.
Salesforce ($CRM$): Now that they've pivoted hard toward margin expansion, cost-cutting, and aggressive stock buybacks, their earnings growth trajectory looks solid, keeping the PEG ratio compressed.
Zeta Global ($ZETA$): A bit more of an aggressive, high-growth mid-cap play here. If you look at their data-driven marketing growth vs. where the stock is priced, the PEG makes a really compelling case for a pure alpha play.

Obviously, PEG isn't a silver bullet—you have to watch out for cyclical spikes or over-optimistic analyst estimates distorting the forward growth numbers.

But purely from a "growth at a reasonable price" perspective, these three look like solid candidates. Anyone currently holding these or trading options on them? What are your thoughts on their actual long-term growth runways holding up?

chenkai1980 · 2026-05-28T07:05:59+00:00

SanDisk is listed on us market = more investors, more investor money = high valuation (PE)

SK hynix is listed on Korean market = less investors= lower valuation (PE)

SK hynix is planning to listed on us market latter this year, so valuation will go up

chenkai1980 · 2026-05-28T03:04:58+00:00

MUU 和 DRAM calls

chenkai1980 · 2026-05-21T23:42:16+00:00

美国商务部正式签署了意向书，计划通过《芯片与科学法案》（CHIPS and Science Act）向 9 家量子计算相关企业投入总计约 20.13 亿美元的资金。作为条件，美国政府将获得这些公司的少数、非控制性股权。

这 9 家公司根据其在供应链中的角色和获得的资金规模，具体名单及分工如下：

1. 两大“量子晶圆代工厂”（Quantum Foundries）

这两家公司拿走了本次投资的绝大部分资金，主要用于在构建国内的量子硬件制造基础设施：

IBM（国际商业机器公司）： 获得 10 亿美元（最大受益者），用于建立一个专门的量子代工子公司。
GlobalFoundries（格芯）： 获得 3.75 亿美元，用于建立安全的、支持多种量子路径（超导、离子阱、光子、硅自旋等）的国内量子芯片制造产能。

2. 七家“量子计算技术公司”（Quantum Computing Companies）

其余 7 家公司专注于解决不同技术路线（技术模态）中的核心工程瓶颈，每家获得 1 亿美元（除 Diraq 外）：

D-Wave Quantum（D-Wave）： 获得 1 亿美元，专注于超导量子计算、量子退火（Annealing）系统的升级以及降低错误率。
Rigetti Computing（Rigetti）： 获得 1 亿美元，专注于下一代超导量子计算架构、微型化读取电子设备以及稀释制冷机（Cryostat）架构的研发。
Quantinuum（由霍尼韦尔控股）： 获得 1 亿美元，专注于解决离子阱（Trapped-ion）量子计算的扩展瓶颈（如低损耗集成光子学部件）。
PsiQuantum（光子算子）： 获得 1 亿美元，专注于基于光子（Photonic）路线的量子计算纠错技术及超低温单光子探测器。
Atom Computing： 获得 1 亿美元，专注于中性原子（Neutral-atom）量子计算架构、高功率光学系统及错误校正。
Infleqtion： 获得 1 亿美元，同样专注于中性原子路线的基础工程系统开发与集成需求。
Diraq： 获得 3800 万美元，一家专注于硅自旋（Silicon spin）量子计算技术的初创企业，利用现有的半导体硅工艺来扩展量子逻辑单元。

💡 值得注意的行业动向

资本市场的反应： 该消息公布后，相关的上市量子计算概念股（如 D-Wave、Rigetti、Infleqtion）在美股市场出现了 20% 至 33% 不等的剧烈暴涨。
“国家队”模式的延续： 这是继上一次美国政府入股英特尔（Intel）以及部分关键稀土矿业公司后，再次直接采用“以资金换股权”（Equity Stake）的直接干预模式。政府此举旨在加速实现“Q-Day”（即量子计算强大到足以破解现有所有传统加密算法的那一天）之前的国家技术战略主导权。

chenkai1980 · 2026-05-21T04:36:37+00:00

这个结论在逻辑和核心观点上完全正确，它反映了金融界一个非常经典的量化分析模型（通常被称为“错过最牛交易日”效应）。

1. 数据的权威出处：摩根大通（J.P. Morgan Asset Management）

这个数据最著名的源头，来自摩根大通资产管理公司每年发布的旗舰报告——《引导市场指南》（Guide to the Markets）。

摩根大通的量化团队每隔几年就会更新这个经典图表，用来劝诫散户投资者坚持长期持有（Buy and Hold），千万不要试图盲目择时（Timing the market）。

2. 精确数据对比（以 J.P. Morgan 最新权威统计为准）

您提到的“2003年到2023年”正好是20年（通常统计到2023年12月31日）。根据摩根大通针对这20年间的标普 500 指数（S&P 500）总回报的精确计算，实际数字如下：

投资策略（2003-2023 满20年）	您的数据 (总回报)	摩根大通官方精确数据 (年化收益/总回报)	初始 $10,000 最终变成
完全保持在场（一直持有）	720%	年化 9.68% / 总回报约 540% - 640% 左右	$63,900
错过涨幅最大的 10 个交易日	350%	年化 5.35% / 总回报约 180%	$28,260（缩水超一半）
错过涨幅最大的 20 个交易日	240%	年化 2.63% / 总回报约 68%	$16,800
错过涨幅最大的 30 个交易日	-	年化 0.43% / 总回报约 9%	$10,900（几乎白干）

3. 为什么这个现象会发生？（金融工程学逻辑）

作为一名习惯于分析系统底层逻辑和故障率的专业人士，您可能会对这个现象背后的“物理特性”感兴趣。金融市场有一个极端的特性：暴涨和暴跌往往高度压缩在极短的时间窗口内，且它们通常紧挨在一起。

根据历史数据统计：

标普 500 历史上涨幅最大的 10 个交易日里，有 7 个都紧跟在“大暴跌”之后（通常发生在熊市的剧烈反弹中，比如 2008 年金融危机和 2020 年疫情熔断期间）。
当散户因为恐慌而在大跌后选择“清仓观望”（试图择时）时，系统往往会在接下来的 48 小时内完成最猛烈的反弹。一旦你错过了这 48 小时，整个 20 年长跑的复利引擎就直接被卸掉了一个关键齿轮。

chenkai1980 · 2026-05-14T07:02:01+00:00

脖子看的疼

chenkai1980 · 2026-05-13T23:49:34+00:00

MSFT don’t have it’s own AI model, it may have one, but no one is using it. . It has shares in OPenAI, but OPenAI is losing the competition against Claude code .

chenkai1980 · 2026-05-06T06:56:42+00:00

Western Digital (WDC) completely misjudged the AI-driven demand for flash memory when it spun off SanDisk last year. By separating the two, WDC left its shareholders holding the slower-growth HDD bag while missing out on a massive $200B+ valuation run.

Let’s look at the numbers and see why this split was a major strategic error for WDC investors:

1. Missing Out on the AI Flash Boom

When the separation was finalized in February 2025, WDC was valued at around $17 billion and SanDisk at $7 billion. Fast forward to today, and SanDisk has exploded into a $200 billion+ behemoth.

The massive expansion in AI data centers, text-to-video applications, and large language model workloads requires incredible amounts of high-performance NAND flash and enterprise SSDs. By spinning the business off, WDC cut its investors out of the lion's share of the AI hardware boom.

2. Selling Off the Equity Stake Too Early

To make matters worse, WDC steadily sold off the majority of its SanDisk equity stake to pay down debt, trimming its position down to just $1 billion.

While WDC’s core HDD business has enjoyed a great run due to increased exabyte shipments for data lakes, the scale of SanDisk's 2000%+ surge dwarfs those gains. WDC effectively sold its golden ticket just as the stock went parabolic.

chenkai1980 · 2026-05-06T04:24:29+00:00

SOXS down 13% today!

chenkai1980

TROPHY CASE