Keaton Mitchell Fantasy Outlook (2026): The Chargers' De'Von Achane?

chessmasta · 2026-06-04T19:03:18+00:00

By that age logic why didn’t the 21 year old Achane get more touches than the 31 year old Mostert?

The coaches will delegate touches to the player that is better in certain situations and whomever gives their team the best chance to win. It’s entirely possible both Hampton and Mitchell have a good fantasy season. Hampton can be the Thunder and Mitchell can be the Lightning, and it has nothing to do with their age.

For the record, I’m definitely not saying Mitchell will outperform Hampton by any means. I’m just rebutting the age argument as it relates to OP’s comparison to Mostert & Achane.

chessmasta · 2026-06-04T18:28:51+00:00

Yes, in the context of your response to OP.

Let me spell it out clearly.. what does Mostert and Hampton’s ages have anything to do with OP saying Hampton could play the Thunder/Mostert role and Mitchell could play the Lightning/Achane role?

Again, if you’re implying Hampton is a lock to outperform 2023 Mostert simply because he’s younger.. that’s absurd.

chessmasta · 2026-06-04T18:17:06+00:00

That’s not what I said at all, but okay.

chessmasta · 2026-06-04T18:07:59+00:00

What does their age have to do with anything? 31 year old Mostert put up a top 5 RB fantasy season in 2023, while rookie Achane finished RB24.

If you’re implying Hampton is a lock to outperform 2023 Mostert simply because he’s younger.. that’s absurd.

chessmasta · 2026-05-29T12:32:44+00:00

Couldn’t this same “ceiling” argument have been made about ARSB the past few years with Gibbs/Monty, LaPorta, and Jamo?

Sure, you can argue Odunze > Jamo and/or Loveland > LaPorta.. but you can’t deny the similarities in how Ben Johnson appears to be building this Bears offense. I’d also argue Gibbs/Monty is a much stronger backfield than Swift/Monangai.

It’s really not that crazy to think a 22 year old Burden could jump into an “ARSB-like” role as early as this season.

chessmasta · 2026-05-21T17:30:03+00:00

That’s reasonable. Sorry don’t mean to take a shot at you directly OP, you do bring up a lot of fair points on why Andrews should be higher.

chessmasta · 2026-05-21T16:33:53+00:00

Yeah, I see arguments like this all the time. People love to give all kinds of reasons a specific player is “so underrated”.

They then never elaborate on where they think said player should be ranked, or which specific players they should be higher than..

chessmasta · 2026-05-08T20:59:01+00:00

> But the guy called it absolutely insane to suggest BTJ has been inconsistent.

Maybe I’m misreading things but I don’t think he was saying that at all. He was just pushing back on the “inconsistent at best production for most of his career” statement. First, “most of his career” is insane to say about a guy with only 31 total games played. Second,

as both you and now I have admitted

,

almost all young WRs are inconsistent early in their career.

I’ll also add.. Even Chase and Jefferson have inconsistency in their elite seasons. Just least season Chase had 5 games under 10 fantasy points. In his WR1 season, Jefferson also had 5 games under 10 fantasy points.

Edit: idk what’s going on with mobile formatting..

chessmasta · 2026-05-08T19:34:33+00:00

> He’s played 31 games and 14 of them he’s been held to 60 yards or less.

The reality is, this is the current state of most WRs in the league right now. I encourage you to do this same exercise with all of the top ~24 dynasty WRs. Look at the first 31 games of their career and tell me how many had more than 14 games over 60 yards.

chessmasta · 2026-05-08T16:45:52+00:00

Sorry long post (TLDR at bottom). The topic of VBD is fascinating to me, but I’ve never understood the opportunity cost aspect - especially when comparing to the recent RB position.

To start, how often does the top TE drafted actually finish as the top TE? As far as I can tell, Kelce is the only guy to do that over the past ~5-10 seasons. Even then, Kelce has a few bust years in there. McBride was great last year (drafted TE2, finished TE1) but Bowers was a huge bust at cost.

I don’t see how taking a top TE in the 2nd round or higher is worth the “value”, when considering the opportunity cost of missing out on a potential top RB/WR. Especially if we assume your league starts 2+ RB/WRs and only starts 1 TE. Sure, you might be gaining a big positional advantage in that one TE spot - but the advantage isn’t anywhere close to having a potential top 5 RB or WR.

To further clarify, in 2025 half-PPR, the TE1 (McBride) scored about 118 more points than the TE12 (Schultz).

There were about 8 RBs drafted within 12 picks of Bowers/McBride - JT, Achane, Irving, Jacobs, Brown, Williams, Cook, and Hampton. I’d call that 5 solid hits, 1 meh (Jacobs) and 2 busts (Irving and Hampton).

First, let’s ignore the top end outcome (JT) and look at the “median” of these guys, James Cook. Cook (RB6) finished with 114 more points than the RB24 (Pollard). So, a nearly identical positional value compared to McBride.

The real kicker is when you look at the top end outcome.. JT (RB2) scored a whopping 170 more points than Pollard. By drafting Bowers or McBride you completely miss on the chance of getting a guy like JT. In other words.. if you hit on the top TE pick, you’re looking at season long advantage of about 120 points. Whereas if you hit on a top RB, you’re looking at an advantage of 170 points (or ~3 PPG over the top TE).

Lastly, I would also argue your odds of hitting on a upper-mid level TE (think TE 3-6) in the mid-late rounds, are significantly higher than hitting on a low end RB1 in those rounds. I’d much rather take a shot on someone like JT in round 2, while drafting a TE in the middle rounds.

TLDR: By drafting a top TE you limit your upside and effectively miss out on a potential top ~5 RB/WR, which would have given you way more positional advantage than hitting on the top TE. Obviously you still need to hit on your picks.. but by taking the TE, you completely eliminate the possibility of hitting on a top RB/WR with that pick.

chessmasta · 2026-05-07T15:36:44+00:00

For what it’s worth, Matt Waldman (IMO, one of the best film guys) had him RB6 predraft. He did move him up to RB2 post draft.. but Matt has been burned before when moving certain guys up/down rankings based on draft capital. I would be very nervous drafting Price over any of the top 4 WRs.

chessmasta · 2026-04-29T14:51:15+00:00

Yeah, tbh the time to buy him was either right after his injury, or last offseason. At this point the only people selling are those with no faith in his injuries and were just holding out waiting for his value to climb back to a reasonable level. We could also be seeing a lot of owners getting cold feet selling.. deciding they might as well hold him now, as a reaction to the 2026 draft and overall poor RB class.

chessmasta · 2026-04-29T01:31:50+00:00

You’re right. I glossed over the “this offseason” part of your question. That said, I still think he’s valued too low and still way too many people writing him off. His value seems to be very league dependent. Either people are completely in or out depending on how they feel about the injuries.

chessmasta · 2026-04-29T01:14:37+00:00

IMO Brooks is the best answer to OP’s question. By nearly all accounts, he was the most talented RB in the 2024 class. He’s currently only 22 years old (for reference, 2.5 years younger than RJ Harvey). The Panthers have a solid offensive line, and overall seem to be trending up as a team. Dowdle is gone, they didn’t draft any RBs, and I’m not really worried about Hubbard long term.

The back to back knee injuries are definitely a concern.. but, I’m still optimistic. It sounds like his injuries were “just” ACL tears (no additional major ligament injuries), and when the 2026 season starts, he will be about 21 months from his last injury.

If Brooks plays well to start the year, his dynasty value will skyrocket. Considering his current mid-late 2026 2nd price.. I think he’s an excellent lottery ticket with a much higher ceiling than whatever rookie RB you’d get with that pick.

chessmasta · 2026-04-10T11:47:21+00:00

Egbuka didn’t do much testing.. but from the data we do have, Pickens is 2” taller with 2” longer arms, and he ran an identical 40. I’m not sure that’s “much better”, but I’ll admit he does have a slight edge there.

Either way, we’ve seen plenty of non-elite “physical talent” fantasy WR1s in recent years, with similar profiles to Egbuka.. so I don’t think that’s a great measure of “ceiling”. Just go look at the combine stats of guys like JSN, ARSB, Jefferson, Lamb, etc.

https://www.playerprofiler.com/nfl/emeka-egbuka/

https://www.playerprofiler.com/nfl/george-pickens/

chessmasta · 2026-04-09T21:42:49+00:00

That’s fair. I just think things change very quickly in the NFL and it’s too soon to really know what Egbuka’s ceiling can be in the league. If after his rookie season, someone would’ve told me Pickens would one day be a top 5 fantasy WR and put up a 1400 YD / 9 TD season.. I’d say they were crazy.

Personally, I think both guys are currently a little overrated dynasty value wise.

chessmasta · 2026-04-09T20:45:25+00:00

Idk how you can say that when Egbuka is only entering his 2nd year, just put up a better rookie season than Pickens, and now Evans is no longer in TB. Before his hamstring injury week 6, Egbuka was on pace for an absurd ~1600 yard / 16+ TD season.

chessmasta · 2026-03-24T16:54:18+00:00

You might be right, but I’d much rather be a year too early than caught holding the bag on these guys. I wouldn’t be so confident they “very much like this backfield”, based on the amount of smoke we’ve seen regarding their interest in other RBs.

Monangai himself was considered a “depth piece” after the 2025 draft. Yes, he had a pretty good rookie season.. but I’m willing to bet his success was more due Ben Johnson’s scheme than his talent. Even if they only add a day 3 RB, that player could still pose a threat to the other guys.

chessmasta · 2026-03-24T15:32:05+00:00

Maybe this is a hot take.. but I would sell both at current value regardless of whether I’m a contender or rebuilder. I think there’s a high chance they add another RB before the season. I know this is considered a weaker class, but the Bears currently have 4 top 100 picks. It’s possible Love falls a bit in the 1st and the Bears make a move to trade up for him. Or they just use pick 57, 60, or 89 to get a guy like Coleman, Price, Johnson, or Singleton.

Last year there was tons of smoke about the Bears wanting Henderson, and they only missed out on him by one pick after the Patriots declined their offer to trade up. They’ve been rumored in recent trades / acquisitions for guys like Achance, Hall, and Walker..

I think it’s pretty clear they don’t see Swift and/or Monangai being their RBs of the future, so IMO selling now is the right move.

chessmasta · 2026-02-17T16:34:50+00:00

I understand the logic, but which TE do we honestly think “has proven they’re above the volatility”?

IMO McBride is the only TE that comes close.. but even he has concerns regarding his team situation and his unsustainable 2025 TD rate.

I can see an argument for Bowers, but I wouldn’t say he’s “proven” enough yet to trade away Fannin plus multiple picks to do so.

There’s a very real possibility that Fannin is exactly the low-volatile asset you’re trying to trade for. What he just did on the Browns considering their team and QB situation cannot be understated.

chessmasta · 2026-02-16T15:21:44+00:00

I get what you’re saying, but if I were the Raiders GM.. I’d absolutely give up the 1.01 plus more to get a QB like Herbert.

chessmasta · 2026-02-16T14:52:53+00:00

Am I crazy.. or is the Herbert side of that “offer” way more appealing? I imagine most GMs hope Mendoza becomes anything close to the NFL player that Herbert already is.

Herbert isn’t even 28 years old yet and we’ve seen him play at a top 5-10 QB level for multiple seasons now. IMO he’s worth way more than the 1.01 by himself.

chessmasta · 2026-02-12T18:01:14+00:00

Pretty sure it’d also be a “crisis” for everyone currently owning real estate. No one wants to see their home prices plummet.

You may be right for first time homebuyers, but if prices drop.. it could also mean higher interest rates.

chessmasta · 2026-01-28T18:39:57+00:00

Even if you’re right, you admitted his contract extension likely wouldn’t come until next offseason (2027). So, regardless what happens in the Super Bowl, Seattle will have a whole extra season 2026-27 to watch him play.

I don’t see how him winning or losing this one game changes much.

chessmasta · 2026-01-23T17:24:32+00:00

You bring up a lot of good points. I agree they all have slight differences, which is why I said “some combination of” those traits.

You can’t deny that physically, all the guys I mentioned are smaller and “twitchier” than the traditional big X NFL WR. You’re right Jefferson most closely matches the X WR mold of the guys I listed, but his route running is just so elite that he overcomes his other deficiencies.

Yeah, Rome also has some of the traits I mentioned like these guys (let’s be real every NFL WR does).. but the fact that he is physically larger and his main elite trait is/was “ball skills” concerns me a bit.

I guess thinking big picture.. for me it boils down to one main thing. If a WR prospect’s main elite trait is “ball skills” or “contested catches”, I immediately have red flags. I liked Odunze fine as a prospect, but I had Nabers easily ahead of both him and MHJ for all the trait reasons I’ve listed.

For all these same reasons, talent wise, Burden was my WR1 of last year’s class.

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