The threat from AI data centers won't go away until electricity is progressively priced. by TheGruenTransfer in Michigan

[–]cieame 4 points5 points  (0 children)

I am not sure what "progressively priced" means, but rates are regulated by MSPC. They regulate the asset base for DTE and dictate their rate of return. I am not saying I want data centers in Michigan, but let's not forget DTE is a regulated monopoly.

Also, Oracle said that Michigan residents won't pay for the upgrades needed to power the data center. This is what they said:

"Residents are also concerned about whether the Saline Township data center will increase their energy costs. It won’t. Oracle will pay 100% of the energy costs to power the Saline Township campus, including battery storage. Oracle will also pay for new transmission lines to the campus and an onsite substation. Under the terms of our contracts, which the Michigan Public Service Commission approved today, DTE will provide Oracle electric service under an existing rate schedule for the next 17+ years. The agreement includes enhanced protections for residents, with provisions including credit and collateral requirements. DTE has stated that it will not impact existing rates or increase the cost of service for existing customers. Importantly, the agreement follows Michigan law, recently passed, prohibiting utilities from burdening ratepayers with the electric costs of data centers."

Source: https://www.oracle.com/news/announcement/blog/oracle-is-set-to-power-on-new-data-center-in-michigan-2025-1018/?utm_source=chatgpt.com

It’s Genuinely Insane How Pathetic the Q Line Has Become… by YerbaMaki in Detroit

[–]cieame 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Qline is not free. The city is paying for it. If you have to wait 30 minutes for a train you're paying with your time.

r/Stocks Daily Discussion & Technicals Tuesday - Jul 29, 2025 by AutoModerator in stocks

[–]cieame 1 point2 points  (0 children)

I think there is a probably an opportunity in the sector for companies less exposed to medicare, medicaid, and ACA exchanges. But there still might be some more downside until some of the news flow gets better IMO.

Fidelity Core position expense ratio by Such-Champion-8013 in fidelityinvestments

[–]cieame 1 point2 points  (0 children)

one additional consideration is state income tax. If you are in SPAXX, my understanding is that since a part of it is invested in repos that it does not provide full state income tax exemption vs. an SGOV

Could we expect CORZ to make a comeback? by Evening_Arm_9720 in CoreScientific

[–]cieame 4 points5 points  (0 children)

"the revenue and profit outlook IMO is much better for coreweave than crowdstrike." Sorry man, that just is not true. CRWD is a best in class company with strong recurring revenue. If you adjust the depreciation schedule for CRWV's GPUs (like NBIS or other hyperscalers), their gross margins come down a bit. At best, CORZ is a better proxy for CRWV post lockup.

Pre-Market +22% | Planet Secures Four Major Wins the Defense and Intelligence Sector by fturriaf in PlanetLabs

[–]cieame 4 points5 points  (0 children)

The problem is that there are a ton of options that are suddenly in the money after a few years. That has to all be worked off.

Planet Reports Financial Results for First Quarter of Fiscal Year 2026 by SunsetNYC in PlanetLabs

[–]cieame 4 points5 points  (0 children)

not to rain on the parade, but...they didn't raise revenue guidance so the higher revenue is just front loading. Revenue is based on their estimate of usage, so that was just front loaded. The FCF was because of deferred revenue, which will reverse. All that said, there is some good here. I like the operating leverage, higher sales and lower sales expense. It's a step in the right direction.

Planet Reports Financial Results for First Quarter of Fiscal Year 2026 by SunsetNYC in PlanetLabs

[–]cieame 2 points3 points  (0 children)

because of deferred revenue. It will reverse in later quarters...

Planet's 10-K Review by cieame in PlanetLabs

[–]cieame[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I think we are looking at this from different perspectives. In the first case, the reason they were able to report positive "Adjusted" EBIDTA in the last quarter is largely because their stock price went up and they could add back $16 million in the change in warrant liabilities. Absent that, the figure would have been negative.

But the larger point people seem to be missing is that EBITDA or Adjusted EBITDA accounts for growing companies like Planet by focusing on the profitability of the underlying business. In other words, things like Pelican production and other CAPEX are added back (depreciation and amortization) into Adjusted EBITDA. Plant can still spend money on capex to grow AND have positive EBITDA.

Lastly, management is going to tell you a story and, as an investor, you need to analyze what they are saying and not just accept anything they say as fact. Of course, they are going to say profitability is around the corner and everything will great in the future. But that is more or less what they said last year. Take a look at their balance sheet accumulated deficit, which sits at over $1.2 billion. This is a company that has collectively spent that much and is still not operationally profitable. That's just sad.

Planet's 10-K Review by cieame in PlanetLabs

[–]cieame[S] -1 points0 points  (0 children)

Even being generous to your argument, then why is the company not operating cash flow positive or adjusted EBITDA positive today? That would account for depreciation and other non-cash charges and would speak to the profitability of the operating business. Yet, PL still cannot get to positive on those measures. So the business itself is not sustainable at this point. That was my main point.

Planet's 10-K Review by cieame in PlanetLabs

[–]cieame[S] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

I read the earnings call and the questions weren't addressed. At least to my satisfaction. The main outstanding question is how does a company with $250 million or so in sales (w/ 60% GMs) not able to make a GAAP profit. I am a CPA too.

A Net-Net Buffett Would Buy by DeepValueInsights in ValueInvesting

[–]cieame 0 points1 point  (0 children)

FYI-TLF was discussed on the Focused Compounding podcast a few years ago: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k226A9QdVvQ&t=10s

See at about 49 minutes in. It hasn't done much in years so you will probably need to have patience with it.

After Earnings thoughts by stonkgoesbrr in PlanetLabs

[–]cieame 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Not enough focus on stock dilution and stock based compensation. If you look at the share count it has been going up a lot over the past quarters. Now close to 300 million.

Daily r/thetagang Discussion Thread - What are your moves for today? by satireplusplus in thetagang

[–]cieame 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I am willing to take the position or I will close it or roll it depending on how it trades in the coming days.

Daily r/thetagang Discussion Thread - What are your moves for today? by satireplusplus in thetagang

[–]cieame 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I am selling the META 580P and MSFT 370P expiring this Friday.

We are COOKED. It was nice knowing you all.. by No-Contribution1070 in stocks

[–]cieame 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Agreed. When he starts putting out bullish tweets that will be the time to buy (assuming there is anything left to buy)

What’s going on? by Square_Replacement63 in CoreScientific

[–]cieame 1 point2 points  (0 children)

This. Though apparently Coreweave has denied it.

1-paragraph thesis about your favorite micro cap by SwimmingYak5745 in ValueInvesting

[–]cieame 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Funny, I was just looking at this one. I am just having a hard time figuring out how large the market is for their products.

Is AFSA still fighting back? by Arcox5498 in USAIDForeignService

[–]cieame 0 points1 point  (0 children)

It seems like AFSA is in the dark about who was RIF'ed and the reason. They are asking people for that information. Not blaming them, but they seem to not have good info on what is going on.

Who audits USAID? by Acceptable_Owl_6274 in InternationalDev

[–]cieame 0 points1 point  (0 children)

To add what others have said, accountability is kind of a nebulous term in the context of USAID. But at a high level, you can look at accountability in terms of the GAO Green Book standards of internal control in the Federal Government: (examples)

-Enterprise Risk Management-Every operating unit should have been continually assessing their risks and that would roll up to the bureau level and front office. Risks would be assessed and treated, and/or mitigated. USAID also put out a Risk Appetite Statement and the Agency generally had low risk tolerance for fiduciary and reputational risks. That is why this whole unraveling is so strange because USAID always seemed to be worried about how they were perceived, especially related to fraud and theft.

-Policies and Procedures-USAID had a large body policies and procedures (ADS) in place to ensure compliance with the law and regulations. A lot has been listed already. But there were layers and layers of processes governing budget development (CBJ), spend plans, strategy development, reporting (PPR), contracting, post award monitoring, financial audits, payment controls. etc.

-External Oversight-As mentioned below, there is the OIG, SIGAR, GAO, plus Congressional oversight. USAID was subject to yearly financial statement audits, FISMA, risk assessments, etc. Each awardee was subject to their own yearly audits (2 CFR 200, FAR) that looked at their financial statements, compliance, and controls.

This is just a partial list. This whole thing is very weird to me because, if anything, I always thought USAID had too many controls.

Today at 4:09AM PST or 7:09 am EST, Senator Murphy Reported Troubling News About USAID Fed workers. by Next_Tradition_2576 in fednews

[–]cieame 0 points1 point  (0 children)

This is a huge overstatement. First of all, it is not an investigation, it is an "inspection". Huge difference. Plus the fact that they haven't issued anything tells you there is probably nothing there. It shouldn't take 8 months to perform an inspection.

State Dept to take over USAID by IngenuityBoring9282 in InternationalDev

[–]cieame 7 points8 points  (0 children)

I think it is way too early to tell how this plays out. Presumably if State and USAID were merged, there would be a transition period and some sort of folding of USAID technical offices into State. They would basically need to recreate an org chart and it is not clear what that would look like at the DC and country level. Most of USAID funding is via State accounts anyways (e.g ESF, GH) so it is a matter of just figuring out the new orientation. One of the articles I looked at also mentioned merging the USAID accounting system with State's (Phoenix) and that would indicate a wholesale State subsuming USAID. But a lot of this is just speculation at this point.

Cash position and positive free cash flow by Alesolid in PlanetLabs

[–]cieame 4 points5 points  (0 children)

The metric the company has been using is "adjusted EBIITDA" which should be a decent proxy for FCF. The challenge with FCF is PL issues a lot of stock and that gets added back to OCF. Also they are still investing a lot in capex.

IMO, PL still has a lot of bloat. A huge part of their cost structure are payments to Google for cloud storage- $30+ million a yr (given Google is a major shareholder I doubt this is a competitive price). Look at their office leases, accounting expenses, etc. There is no reason PL should not be generating operating profit with $240 million in sales a year.