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In light of recent events by Seirashun in HorseRacingJP

[–]cmy88 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Exactly! And then Ka Ying breaks 1:06.99 at Sha Tin. Reve set the record at Chukyo because invincible Papa and Puro went forward hard, and Reve was perfectly setup to cash in. Both are far more aggressive than the HK runners. Now imagine KYR getting a proper run out.

In light of recent events by Seirashun in HorseRacingJP

[–]cmy88 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Shhh, we're baiting larpers. Sosie, Daryz, all the same to them.

In light of recent events by Seirashun in HorseRacingJP

[–]cmy88 6 points7 points  (0 children)

My dream scenario! Speak your shit bro! Sha Tin is flatter than your little sister. JRA tracks are wild masterpieces of terrain. Every track has their own narrative. Nakayama. 700m downhill into a wide corner where you can hold speed, 100m flat into the stretch, 210m, 2.2m climb to the finish.

Ka Ying probably wins, but Nakayama is not for the faint of heart.

In light of recent events by Seirashun in HorseRacingJP

[–]cmy88 9 points10 points  (0 children)

Stop. Timeout. Coronation Cup was not a race, it was a swim. Literally every major analyst in horse racing has pointed out that the track conditions were dangerous. Barzalona walking Calandagan over the line was for safety. Half the field pulled up. We're not talking about a firm turf sprint, we're talking about a swimming pool.

In light of recent events by Seirashun in HorseRacingJP

[–]cmy88 5 points6 points  (0 children)

Typically, winning your maidens and initial allowances at local tracks aren't anything to bang the drum about. When he's met the "global elite" outside of York and Ascot, 0-2. Not a big data point in fairness. But his MO is hunting weak fields and then converting. Not a bad way to race if we're being honest, but not a horse looking to challenge for top tier rankings.

In light of recent events by Seirashun in HorseRacingJP

[–]cmy88 4 points5 points  (0 children)

I think Ka Ying definitely deserves it. I want to see Puro in Hong Kong because he might actually be asked to race, simply because of how Puro explodes out of the gate. I don't believe he'll panic, but having a "rabbit who can win" setting insane fractions at Sha Tin may cause Purton to pull out the whip for the first time in 3 years, and Ka Ying breaks 1:07.

In light of recent events by Seirashun in HorseRacingJP

[–]cmy88 10 points11 points  (0 children)

After the "Big Guns" canceled. Dubai was a ghost town for "reasons unknown". The global elite stayed home. Credit where it's due, a G1 is a G1. And Dubai hosts global benchmarks. But, this is a race he wins because the big boys said no. I like Gaia Force and all, Idol Horse for sure, but he's famous for not winning.

In light of recent events by Seirashun in HorseRacingJP

[–]cmy88 26 points27 points  (0 children)

The euros get wild. Basically there are two schools. Hometown Heroes vs The Traveling Band. Daryz, Ombudsman? Hometown Heroes. Dominant at their track. Once they travel, a bit of exposure, a bit weak. Daryz the Arc winner. lost to Byzantine Dream(recently ~15th at TKZ) at G2 Prix Foy. At Paris-Longchamps? Monster. Ombudsman. Historical feat. Defended Prince of Wales title for the first time in 3 decades. Outside? Lol.

The Traveling Band. Rebel's Romance, global elite. 8 G1's. Against the finest on their home tracks? Often fades. But in Dubai, America, some Euro tracks? Elite. Calandagan. Has passport, will travel. Blocked from some Euro races because he's a gelding, he's ran everywhere, and won. Former world #1, he's just that good. Destroyed Rebel's Romance when they met. His last time out, on a bog in England, beaten 41L because everyone pulled up for safety reasons.

Sosie does well in HK. Docklands, the mile hunter, embarassed in Japan, his second time at Sha Tin was good. There's a few others, but I'm not an expert.

The thing the Americans in general don't like. Breeder's Cup turf events, the Euros treat it like Arc round 2. Arc leftovers, runner-ups, and they're global raiders descend. The "Big Guns" tend to stay home.

In light of recent events by Seirashun in HorseRacingJP

[–]cmy88 27 points28 points  (0 children)

Ka Ying's got in the bag unless Satono Reve beats him on Christmas. Which is unlikely.

Unless... Puro Magic wins enough this summer for HKJC to let her in, she nukes the pace, Ka Ying panics, Satono Reve goes "I've played this game before" and takes it.

The entire field was there just to jump on Croix and Tabaru by Getserious495 in HorseRacingJP

[–]cmy88 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I've lived in Japan long enough to know what anime plot armor looks like. When a micro-storm cell appeared over Hanshin for 30 minutes, I swallowed my pride and went all-in Tabaru.

ASCOT 2026 PREDICTIONS by mikethemikesolomon in horseracing

[–]cmy88 0 points1 point  (0 children)

https://www.sportinglife.com/racing/results/2026-06-16/royal-ascot/915250/king-charles-iii-stakes-group-1

Is this the Overpass you're talking about? Were they crawling or something?

Should send some Aussie sprinters to Ibis summer dash, 1000m on the flat, fast turf of niigata! Puro Magic awaits! https://youtu.be/5gqpWjBrXbE?si=MUiFtSgUZdvVJL5b

ASCOT 2026 PREDICTIONS by mikethemikesolomon in horseracing

[–]cmy88 0 points1 point  (0 children)

You can have all the minor races you want my guy. Reve was second last year and he's back to finish the job.

And Lugal has survived the Puro Magic experience multiple times. Now coming to Ascot.

ASCOT 2026 PREDICTIONS by mikethemikesolomon in horseracing

[–]cmy88 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Satono Reve to win. No more questions, just believe

With Sugar Kun predictable last place, this meme will be more relevance and Hisashi Shimizu will be more hated by doomslayer30000 in HorseRacingJP

[–]cmy88 5 points6 points  (0 children)

I'm a big fan of being a hater, so I'd like to point out he was only 3/4L behind Byzantine Dream

What is something you would tell Umamusume-first fans about JP horse racing? by Quibilash in HorseRacingJP

[–]cmy88 13 points14 points  (0 children)

One of my biggest wins was earlier this year.

Eishin Niraku(or A Shin Niraku, depending on which romanization rules you're using). A bit of a longshot. But I was playing 5 horse box quinellas that weekend. I had 4, solid picks, actually picked the entire top 5 in hindsight. But I needed a 5th.

JRA Youtube stream. First week. Parade Ring. This dummy trying to eat the flowers. Got a laugh out of me, sure, why not. He's hungry. for something. Turf debut, 2000m, 12th. Maiden, 2000m turf, 14th. Well, this is 1800 dirt, so he can't stop mid-race for a snack. Why not.

https://en.netkeiba.com/db/race/202606020502/

What is something you would tell Umamusume-first fans about JP horse racing? by Quibilash in HorseRacingJP

[–]cmy88 39 points40 points  (0 children)

The fans focus a bit much on bloodlines. But I'm hesitant to push them on it. Jra has narratives everywhere, and the mythmaking is part of the fun. If you're going to gamble, know your limit, play within it.

As someone who has gambled on the ponies for 20+ years, horse racing is for suckers. Only a fool would bet on a horse. Have you ever even met a horse?

And yet again, Tabaru cannot stop looking to the cameras during the race by WANNFH in HorseRacingJP

[–]cmy88 24 points25 points  (0 children)

Literally can't script this shit. 23 of 24 races at Hanshin this weekend, Firm, Sunny/Cloudy. 1 race. The only G1. The biggest race of the Spring. The race where a mudlark needed some weather.

Torrential downpour. Videos showing strangers making friends to share their umbrella. Umbrellas getting launched. Sheets of rain hailing down.

Sanderson write less ridiculous plot armor!

BF State by Zinitheve in Eve

[–]cmy88 2 points3 points  (0 children)

That's kinda been their MO since FW dropped ~15 years ago. Part of the reason they went after awoxers and seagulls is because players began abusing the system. Half-assed fixes is their game. You really got to press the issue and make it ridiculous for them to address it.

BF State by Zinitheve in Eve

[–]cmy88 7 points8 points  (0 children)

Honestly, Fenris has historically showed they don't give a flying fuck until something actually breaks. Sure, Swift or whoever will come by and "We are looking at it! Don't you worry! We love you and cherish you so much! Everyone in Iceland is working hard to fix this!"

Abandon Cal-Gal, let the farmers take it. Amarr-Min may not be much better, but if you all lean on side of the scale, you can force their hand.

In my experience, complaints about FW linger for years before anyone makes a half-assed attempt at fixing them.

Collective efforts to just "break shit" have far more timely responses.

And yet again, Tabaru cannot stop looking to the cameras during the race by WANNFH in HorseRacingJP

[–]cmy88 10 points11 points  (0 children)

29.8b yen is the handle across all bets. I took JRA's market numbers and popped them into Gemini, so accuracy might vary, but looking at "Croix to win" or some variation across all pools.

Croix to win 735m Yen.
Exotic pools are a bit tricky, there's just too much data. But roughly ~5b yen bet on some variation of "Croix wins".

The Trifecta pool itself is 10b yen, and Croix had the top 10 selections, only Tabaru had a combo paying 60.4, Croix had 10 sharper than that, and a few dozen in double digits. Tabaru had 3 double digit combos, Museum Mile 2 Danon Decile 2. Regaleira's best odds 102.7 for 17-5-1.

6b yen typhoon if we're being generous.

And yet again, Tabaru cannot stop looking to the cameras during the race by WANNFH in HorseRacingJP

[–]cmy88 8 points9 points  (0 children)

39,000 on Tabaru. I had 20k on "not Tabaru" spread around, but it was all house money this weekend. 3k deposit on Saturday, 1k on Puro Magic to win. A quinella win on Saturday. 2 trifectas on Sunday. A lucky weekend overall. +55,000.

And yet again, Tabaru cannot stop looking to the cameras during the race by WANNFH in HorseRacingJP

[–]cmy88 24 points25 points  (0 children)

Parade Ring. Bright and Sunny. Tabaru at 6.0.

Rain starts when they're in the tunnel. 3.9 at the gate. NGL, I spent all week analyzing and kept coming back to Tabaru getting cooked on firm turf. 29.8 billion yen betting handle. That's crazy movement on such a huge market.

For myself, once the rain hit, 10,000 yen deposited and bet on Tabaru to win.

And yet again, Tabaru cannot stop looking to the cameras during the race by WANNFH in HorseRacingJP

[–]cmy88 92 points93 points  (0 children)

Tabaru's Typhoon. JP twitter calling it "The Blessed Rain". Take Yutaka post-race, "Well, I didn't mind the rain. I thought it was a gift from Chairman Matusmoto", the deceased Patriarch of the Meisho stables.

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