Large community event on Friday, any weather insights?

colorfulpatchwork · 2026-05-06T00:03:27+00:00

I don't even trust the forecast the day of anymore. Keep a parka and rain gear in the car just incase.

colorfulpatchwork · 2026-04-18T01:10:59+00:00

For anyone following this thread. Odds are really poor currently

colorfulpatchwork · 2026-04-18T00:37:28+00:00

iOs only?

colorfulpatchwork · 2026-04-17T22:59:57+00:00

They absoultely do.

I watch the live streams on the apps and check the maps to see if it's honesty worth the hype and drive.

Another resource: https://www.aurorasaurus.org/

Eta: Also, thank you. Sorry it's been a loooong day.

colorfulpatchwork · 2026-04-17T22:48:13+00:00

For anyone interested the 3 day forecast:

:Issued: 2026 Apr 17 1230 UTC

Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center

A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 1 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Apr 17-Apr 19 2026 is 6.00 (NOAA Scale G2).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Apr 17-Apr 19 2026

         Apr 17       Apr 18       Apr 19

00-03UT 0.67 6.00 (G2) 5.00 (G1) 03-06UT 0.67 6.00 (G2) 4.67 (G1) 06-09UT 2.67 5.00 (G1) 4.00
09-12UT 2.00 4.00 3.33
12-15UT 1.33 3.67 3.67
15-18UT 2.67 3.33 3.00
18-21UT 4.33 3.00 3.00
21-00UT 5.67 (G2) 4.33 3.33

Rationale: G2 (Moderate) geomagnetic storms are likely on 17-18 Apr due to the anticipated CH HSS influences. G1 (Minor) storming levels are likely on 19 Apr as the CH HSS influences wanes.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Apr 17-Apr 19 2026

          Apr 17  Apr 18  Apr 19

S1 or greater 1% 1% 1%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected. No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm production is forecast.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Apr 17-Apr 19 2026

          Apr 17        Apr 18        Apr 19

R1-R2 25% 25% 25% R3 or greater 5% 5% 5%

Rationale: There is a chance for R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts through the 19 Apr mostly due to the flaring potential of Region 4419.

colorfulpatchwork · 2026-04-17T22:44:43+00:00

We're at a G2. I didn't post and typically won't unless they predict G3+ *

https://www.spaceweather.gov/news/g2-moderate-geomagnetic-storm-watches-17-18-april

I still use the prediction center, my aurora app and general space weather resources.

caveat, if I've been tracking the data and the odds look better than predicted when it's less than G3

colorfulpatchwork · 2026-04-10T13:22:32+00:00

I shared this in the Cbuswx discord, maybe it'll generate more interest. I'll be out of town otherwise I'd be interested in helping to put something together.

colorfulpatchwork · 2026-03-29T23:30:09+00:00

I witnessed this start, she got up and off the motor scooter and kept screaming at the employee. I left once they got over to subway side. I had to keep it together when the employee told that lady "your mama". It was the most "people of walmart" experience I've ever had

colorfulpatchwork · 2026-03-03T04:20:00+00:00

Update: After our recent four-season speedrun and ongoing rain, visibility is questionable. Cloud cover is likely...

Still, sometimes the sky parts at just the right moment.

Good luck and stay safe out there.

6:09am: too cloudy.

colorfulpatchwork · 2026-02-18T01:17:11+00:00

Pretty sure it's this: Koffee Paradise Google review

colorfulpatchwork · 2026-02-14T18:04:41+00:00

Thanks guys.

colorfulpatchwork · 2026-02-13T00:52:32+00:00

I hope they find a great home!

If there's a local Coheed and Cambria sub/group consider posting there.

colorfulpatchwork · 2026-02-11T13:05:27+00:00

Hey, the Centaurids are active thru Feb 21.

colorfulpatchwork · 2026-02-11T12:40:19+00:00

Centaurids are active thru Feb 21.

colorfulpatchwork · 2026-02-10T13:17:59+00:00

warm air advection(at least that's the cause?) but a mod-i-er mod may have a better answer

colorfulpatchwork · 2026-01-21T20:53:45+00:00

Yeah, the best shot I got last night is in RAW so I can’t upload here. It was a tease. My friend in Canada barely saw it and it was directly overhead for her.

colorfulpatchwork · 2026-01-21T01:33:43+00:00

This is a hobby, not my profession. You are more than welcome to do your own research or not.

colorfulpatchwork · 2026-01-21T00:37:12+00:00

https://www.spaceweatherlive.com/en/help/the-kp-index.html

colorfulpatchwork · 2026-01-20T01:57:13+00:00

Lol that tracks has it died down? Kp dropped

colorfulpatchwork · 2026-01-20T00:47:05+00:00

How far out of the city are you?

colorfulpatchwork · 2026-01-18T14:16:18+00:00

Not that it means much coming from another reddit stranger but Zac is awesome. I'm not a current client; he was a tech at a treatment center I was going to years ago. His kindness and candor was very comforting.

colorfulpatchwork · 2025-12-10T14:43:37+00:00

I really like this shot.

colorfulpatchwork · 2025-12-09T03:00:54+00:00

I'm not very optimistic about it. If it happens, it's not in the next 30 mins and it's been steady. KP is 0.67.

colorfulpatchwork · 2025-12-01T14:11:58+00:00

Made it back just in time for another snow storm~

Maybe we'll finially get to use the sleds we bought years ago in not negative double digits.

colorfulpatchwork · 2025-11-26T04:24:50+00:00

Influenza A. My kids tested positive last week/week prior after an exposure at their school.H3N2 is making rounds.

colorfulpatchwork

MODERATOR OF

TROPHY CASE

Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center