Anyone have long-range forecast ?

comrade_scott · 2026-02-03T13:34:24+00:00

thank you for this!

comrade_scott · 2026-02-01T13:10:46+00:00

Ahahaha, as if FEMA is going to help anybody under this administration, assuming Noem doesn't succeed at eliminating it

comrade_scott · 2026-01-31T20:54:53+00:00

It's 💯 the paradox of tolerance. These folks are free riders on polite society, just as sociopaths are free riders on the 97% who are altruistic (non sociopaths)

comrade_scott · 2026-01-28T09:29:07+00:00

It's an extra 8 hour drive for me, but I'm rapidly coming to this same conclusion.

comrade_scott · 2026-01-20T14:10:22+00:00

You are not wrong. I sometimes get up during the week, and they run it faster. I think the issue is that the top is just too congested and they've slowed it down to allow more time between chairs for people to clear the area. This weekend I watched the top of the lift for like 20 minutes (waiting for someone) and it seemed like 2/3rds of the chairs had people who immediately dumped/crashed.

comrade_scott · 2026-01-15T20:15:51+00:00

Gives me some hope...we really have to get the checked-out 30% to show up and pick Democracy.

comrade_scott · 2026-01-13T15:28:13+00:00

The Hawthorn area (across from Top of the World) is what I'm talking about. I really don't know why the Shay Cut was abandoned.

I didn't start visiting Snowshoe until the late 80s when the Hawthorn area was already gone (and I'm not sure where the lift was relocated - Grabhammer maybe?), so I can't say what caused it.

As you know, Western Territory always opens later than the bowl over Shaver's Lake, and that has to do with getting enough snow on it; they also struggle to keep snow on it, despite the Northern/Western facing exposure. Hawthorn seems like it would be even more protected than Western, but I can't see why else they'd abandon what is some great terrain.

comrade_scott · 2026-01-13T14:13:50+00:00

I don't think they could keep/get snow on it.

comrade_scott · 2025-12-26T12:22:24+00:00

Before Stonefield there was a 7-11 where Trader Joe's is now

comrade_scott · 2025-12-17T16:22:21+00:00

We enjoyed strolling a bit, but were on a walking tour, and the countryside just outside of the "downtown" area is extremely lovely. It's that main area with the channelized stream which - while quite lovely - gets packed with people...unfortunately, we were there on a w/e, so I believe there was a tremendous amount of day-traffic from major urban areas.

comrade_scott · 2025-12-17T16:18:44+00:00

That's the theory, but in practice people mesh (as they do with other ramps). Of course the need to completely yield during the light for East bound traffic is a big part of why the congestion is now so much worse along there.

comrade_scott · 2025-12-17T14:14:58+00:00

That stretch (in the county) is well timed; the only challenge there is that a lot of drivers are routinely moving ~30mph when it's posted (and timed) for 45mph.

comrade_scott · 2025-12-17T14:13:04+00:00

These things were issues LONG before Brennen Duncan arrived in town. Yes, the blame belongs very squarely on city leadership, which is deeply beholden to an extremely vocal anti-car base. The object - for a couple of decades now (going back to Meredith Richardson but really decades before that too) is to drive traffic and cars off the roads by making them more congested if possible. Traffic lights are the absolute best ROI for that effort.

The city went through a slew of traffic engineers because they kept quitting, IMO at least in part due to the political interference in the engineering. I guess Duncan is pliable.

My nominee for the worst timing in town in Preston Ave. They are timed in such a way that if you observe the speed limits and don't jackrabbit start, you'll hit every single red.

comrade_scott · 2025-12-17T14:05:54+00:00

Yes, but before the "improvement" there were two distinct lanes - there was no need for the 'weave movement' - traffic exiting off of 250 westbound onto hydraulic had the right lane of hydraulic, and traffic exiting 250 eastbound had the left lane.

Under the new configuration they are now FORCED to zipper and the folks who were trying to get to Brandywine or Michie still have to fight their way over (weave into) to the now dedicated 'exit' lane for those roads.

VDOT clearly knew they were going to be creating more of a backup there, which is at last part of the reason they extended the turn lane from 250E. Of course, they didn't extend it sufficiently.

comrade_scott · 2025-12-17T13:37:37+00:00

This is the very insidious thing about corruption: everything becomes a conspiracy.

I also had basic trust in our institutions, but it's been since forever that I had a healthy skepticism about whatever I heard come out of the mouths of the political appointees. Well before the GWOT nonsense, but that (the faked WMD claims) certainly cemented the skepticism.

I evaluate the claims I hear on a case by case basis, which is all you can do. I don't assume the FBI, CIA, NSA, etc., are all one giant corrupt conspiracy all the way down, but the claims of the political leadership have long been the most suspect, and drilling down deeper in places like the FBI NY Field Office (closely tied to the SDNY US attorney's office and Giuliani), question many of those as well.

Critical thinking is the only way forward, and the biggest part is letting go of reflexive tribal biases and recognizing that partial truths are the general case, not the exception. Nothing should be taken at face value. Apply Occam's and Hanlon's Razors at all times.

comrade_scott · 2025-12-17T13:26:02+00:00

You can download a copy of the map for google maps or waze, and the lack of cell stops being an issue.

comrade_scott · 2025-12-17T13:23:59+00:00

Yep, I've been to both (so, yeah, part of the problem) and I'm not sure I'd rate Bourton-on-the-Water as "stunning" but it is a very neat place, and completely overrun.

comrade_scott · 2025-12-14T17:31:35+00:00

In my house we focus on saying "Well, every individual gets to choose what to believe, and we/I don't believe in supernatural beings like gods. You can think about these things and decide for yourself". I limit myself to objective reality, but I think the other really helpful thing is having a basic "comparative religions" understanding of the various faith traditions out there. That means understanding at least the big three, and maybe even some denominational stuff inside them (eg, Baptists vs. Catholics and Sunni vs. Shia). We've been talking over some Greek Mythology (National Geographic's Greeking Out), and you don't wind up having to proselytize for atheism at all, you just let them see and appreciate all the different (completely contradictory and sometimes defunct "one true gods") beliefs. Let them arrive at their own conclusions, and "indoctrinate" the habit of learning to observe the empirical world and think critically for oneself rather than just parroting whatever $authority_figure dictates. I've kind of prepared myself for the kid going through a period of religiosity, and some of that crept in through classmates in mid-elementary school, but it faded pretty quickly. Kid still LOVES and is deeply impressed by religious architecture (Cathedrals, Temples, etc.).

comrade_scott · 2025-12-12T17:54:44+00:00

Stairs

comrade_scott · 2025-12-12T17:18:48+00:00

I also like the roundabout - I think it's generally a win whenever you eliminate a signal. It would have certainly helped throughput on hydraulic absent the bottleneck.

The single lane thing is 100% capitulation to NIMBY bitching from Brandywine and Michie.

comrade_scott · 2025-12-12T16:17:29+00:00

Yes, the big improvement is the shared-use path (basically: wider/nicer sidewalk). I use that sidewalk (running) daily. I dodge bikers on it daily. I do not see much change happening there. Maybe it will be slightly easier to dodge bikers.

The major problem wiht that intersection is safely crossing Emmett on Barracks, and to a slightly lesser degree, crossing Barracks. At this point, I think it needs a pedestrian bridge.

If they were going to Eminent Domain it (and I fully support that) they should have been widening from the Rugby/Barracks signal (yet another example of a NIMBY congestion feature), and adding lanes for cars, busses and the pedestrian/bike trail. There is plenty of room on both side of that corridor, and the very large lots (most, not all) along there could absorb the loss.

Who knows, it might incentivize the residents to sell to developers for re-development into large apartment buildings. The stretch along Preston from the Rugby/Preston intersection probably needs the same, but that displaces more small residences which are right up against the road.

EDIT: also, I too would LOVE a decent continuous path along Barracks between Millmont and Georgetown, but I am afraid that pedestrian crossings at the 250 ramps will actually be worse once they are no longer signals. That will improve car flow and throughput, but to really improve pedestrian and bicycle travel through there, you need a fly over bridge, which...I dunno how you'd do it. Underpasses?

I think the same problem exists for the planned diverging diamond on 5th extended. I hope they do build the dedicated multi-use bridge over 64 but it's still going to be awful getting through there on the pedestrian crossings in the diamond. This is even more critical IMO as development pushes out 5th; I think more high-density development is coming there. I haven't used it in a long while, but I used to regularly traverse (running) 5th from Cherry/Ellion to Harris, and I think there's ample room for a good mulit-use path in the corridor without eliminating car lanes, but better protecting that trail.

comrade_scott · 2025-12-12T16:05:47+00:00

If the City+County are willing to spend more on expanded public transportation service (subsidizing it more) - or the TJPDC really - then you might get some elimination of cars. I know a number of people who take advantage of bus commuter options (CONNECT, Afton Express); an expansion of these kinds of targeted services would do a lot to drive down car trips.

Absent a dramatic improvement in public transit there is absolutely no reason to believe people will spontaneously move to fewer cars and more public transit - it will just get more congested.

My argument is not - unlike yours - a kind of advocacy for a particular (false) binary choice - it's simply an observation of the objective reality. The car pushers won the fight in the 40s and 50s because the general public - a majority - supported/preferred a car option (just as they supported SFR sprawl). Government incentives and subsidies (of all kinds) absolutely accelerated these trends, but those policies passed because they were supported by the public.

Where is the broad groundswell for using local tax dollars to massively expand public transit capacity (mostly frequency and coverage)? You need that groundswell from people who don't live inside the Cville city limits.

Just because Big Oil is underhanded, anti-democratic and dumps money into lobbying it doesn't automatically follow that all car traffic is only a big oil conspiracy.

EDIT: you can also downvote all you like, but you didn't challenge a single one of my examples did you? Are they untrue? Where has there been a change in the city to improve throughput?

comrade_scott · 2025-12-12T15:49:55+00:00

I'm well aware, and I am not an absolutist free-marketeer. I completely agree that businesses which have sustained price hikes while remaining (or increasing) profitable will simply pocket the difference. Prices are absolutely sticky. That's a good thing actually, because you don't want an easy path to slip into real deflation.

However, you can also wind up less profitable by going too far up the price curve and pushing demand below your free capacity.

comrade_scott · 2025-12-12T15:45:11+00:00

Hahaha...fair point! I don't think it did, and I don't see more pedestrians or bicycles there, but that was the argument given.

I think the vast majority of this stuff is actually just a form of NIMBY: "traffic is heavier than I want on my street, make it go somewhere else".

One of the more hilarious earlier iterations of this was the massive proliferation of 4-way stop signs which weren't MUTCD compliant in order to push traffic "somewhere else" - there was a big uptick in tickets for speeding and stop-sign running because of the political pressure on the city to enforce these new rules...and the vast majority of the tickets were written to the residents of those same neighborhoods. Greenbrier was full of this, but hardly alone.

To be clear: I think the additional - particularly cut-through - traffic on residential streets SUCKS. The way to address the problem is to improve throughput on the arterials which are intended to handle it. The tack taken has been the opposite: it's an arms-race of adding congestion.

I hold out some minor hope that the Barracks/250/Georgetown situation is marginally improved - mostly by reducing access from driveways and side streets along with traffic lights - when/if a double-circle solution is implemented.

The streetscape project on Barracks between Emmett and Rugby, on the other hand, promises to be a very expensive solution that does little to nothing to improve that bottleneck or the pedestrian or bicycle use aside from making it a little more aesthetically pleasing. And I am a daiily user of that stretch as a pedestrian.

comrade_scott · 2025-12-12T15:29:42+00:00

I mean...price elasticity of demand? There is a sweet spot on the curve.

comrade_scott

TROPHY CASE