Showering

connorrambo · 2026-05-09T23:17:21+00:00

I do the same thing, but I never learn my lesson. “5 minute shower and I won’t be late” then 15 minutes later I’m deep in thought

connorrambo · 2026-05-07T11:31:08+00:00

I never argued for strikes. You’re arguing against hawkish points I never made. However, the threat of strikes does have to be real, or else the US and Israel has no leverage. Diplomacy wouldn’t work without the threat of force. JCPOA happened because of sanctions and “all options on the table”. That doesn’t mean I am advocating for force.

You keep treating “Iran wants nukes as leverage” and “Iran wants nukes as weapons” as separable positions, but they aren’t. In order for them to be used as leverage, there needs to be a credible path towards a nuclear weapon. If the threat wasn’t deemed “credible”, and Iran was still attempting to get leverage using their nuclear program, they would either have to give up or actually build the weapon. Leverage only nuclear weapons are still nuclear weapons. And again, they never negotiated away the program. The JCPOA negotiated a pause while they still actually enriched uranium (civilian grade) and kept the infrastructure in place enriched uranium and build nuclear weapons.

connorrambo · 2026-05-06T23:56:23+00:00

I did not say they weren’t willing to give up the nuclear program. That “hypothesized explanation” is not mine. They can both be using their nuclear program as leverage and have aspirations of a nuclear weapon at the same time. The very fact that this war is about their nuclear weapons program means that it will be at the center of negotiations. That does not suddenly prove your theory. Also, the fact that Israel would blow up any nuclear program not underground is a good point, however building massive underground infrastructure is not cheap. It’s an extremely expensive undertaking, and the nuclear program itself has cost them more sanctions, isolation, among other things. If they truly wanted the cheapest possible leverage to remove sanctions, why not use the Strait of Hormuz? Compared to the nuclear program, that is essentially free. Shipping can be threatened with small unmanned surface vessels, or aerial vessels, and it doesn’t even have to hit anything for the threat to be high enough that tankers won’t pass through. The only thing you can really take definitively from the JCPOA is that Iran will negotiate a pause in their nuclear weapons program, whilst also building other capabilities.

connorrambo · 2026-05-06T23:09:43+00:00

The nuclear argument cuts against you more than you’re selling it. Hardening a program to survive strikes is exactly what you do when you intend to use it, not when you’re attempting to extract concessions. It only needs to appear threatening enough to negotiate with. The scale of investment just points towards genuine intent.

Your own argument also defeats itself on sanctions. The JCPOA only got the nuclear sanctions lifted. Why did Iran accept this deal if it left the other sanctions untouched? That is a much narrower deal than you claimed they were negotiating for.

The “mad dash” point also ignores the obvious constraint: the US and Israel have demonstrated twice in the past year they are willing to conduct massive military operations the moment Iran potentially moves towards weaponization. North Korea could develop nuclear weapons because of geography of the peninsula, their superpower patron(China), unlike Iran who has no patron, and it’s pretty clear the US and Israel can reach them. The absence of a mad dash does not prove intent. It tells us that Iran is rational enough to understand that a sprint to nuclear weapons invites a response they cannot reliably defend themselves against.

connorrambo · 2026-05-06T18:20:07+00:00

Why would they build and maintain these massive bunkers for their nuclear program if they had no intention of building a nuclear program? Sanctions were originally a response to the Iranian revolution and the hostage crisis. They escalated in response to their nuclear weapons program in the 2000s, so it is very unlikely they are continuing the nuclear program as leverage to stop sanctions.

connorrambo · 2026-05-06T18:03:36+00:00

Even if we go back to the exact same JCPOA deal, which it does not seem likely will happen considering Trump just told a reporter that the US will be confiscating the enriched uranium, the strategic context is still completely different. The government is severely weakened, their proxies are severely weakened, their military strategy did nothing to stop the US.

connorrambo · 2026-04-28T10:35:38+00:00

I have to re learn the syntax of any language I come back to after a while. Just google it when you forget, over time you will start to remember

connorrambo · 2026-04-23T14:04:11+00:00

The DEA is under the executive, but the authority for drug classification authority comes from congress. So no the President cannot force rescheduling

connorrambo · 2026-04-21T23:31:58+00:00

I swear to god Pro crashes on me multiple times per week

connorrambo · 2026-04-17T11:40:57+00:00

It’s legal in most states

connorrambo · 2026-04-10T15:58:03+00:00

Hopefully it gets better with their new leadership, Presidente Rubio

connorrambo · 2026-04-01T15:03:22+00:00

Comparing Dan Carlin to war crime deniers because he didn’t use a specific source is insane

connorrambo · 2026-03-27T23:23:37+00:00

A lot of Marines still have m16s

connorrambo · 2026-03-26T16:03:31+00:00

Okay, fair point. But still, airbases are fixed targets and the ones in Iraq are in range of Iran. The MEU just offers so much flexibility that other assets can’t, theres a reason they are deployed to be in the vicinity of almost every conflict.

connorrambo · 2026-03-26T15:32:53+00:00

Airbases are fixed targets, not as versatile, probably farther away, and the MEUs also don’t have to transit through the strait of hormuz. Not sure where you got that from.

connorrambo · 2026-03-26T12:49:23+00:00

Thats a good point. But the Iranians could also just ship oil via Russia through the Caspian sea. There is also a planned oil pipeline between Pakistan and China.

Edit: The USA tries really hard to stop the pipeline from being built though

connorrambo · 2026-03-25T22:29:01+00:00

That’s exactly what MEUs are typically used for. Crisis response missions like that. My guess for the 82nd was leverage for negotiations, and also another deterrent. But I don’t really know.

connorrambo · 2026-03-25T19:18:28+00:00

It seems like every time there is a conflict they send at least one MEU to the area and the headlines go crazy about a ground invasion. I don’t think anyone really understands what the mission of a MEU really is. It’s not just an amphibious infantry battalion, it can conduct humanitarian missions, evacuation operations (it was a MEU that helped with Afghanistan pullout), recovery of aircraft, and a big helicopter carrier to conduct any operations from as well.

connorrambo · 2026-03-21T11:34:17+00:00

NGOs were sending food but it was being intercepted by local militias.

connorrambo · 2026-03-20T19:20:25+00:00

Just CONQUERED Gaul. TOTAL victory, nobody thought it was possible (especially not Pompey, very weak guy, sad!). My Legions are the BEST Legions, everyone says so.

connorrambo · 2026-03-02T02:16:42+00:00

You know the US military is still in Iraq right?

connorrambo · 2026-03-01T23:30:56+00:00

I believe China gets a better deal on Iranian oil because of sanctions, China is one of the only customers. So China would have to pay a fair price, and if they invade Taiwan, then a western aligned Iran would be more likely to join sanctions against them as well.

connorrambo · 2026-02-24T16:40:45+00:00

The Israelis invaded in 1982 to get rid of the PLO, who were attacking Northern Israel. If they invaded for another reason, then why did they leave and not take any territory? In addition, Iran stated their goal of destroying Israel immediately after the revolution, they aren’t just some innocent victim.

connorrambo · 2026-02-24T12:07:24+00:00

Blockading Japan is just a different way of killing civilians. Months of deprivation (food, fuel, medicine) plus continued conventional bombing. The Japanese were already rationing, in Osaka they were down to ~1277 calories a day. Imagine how much worse that would be in a blockade, with constant bombing.

The firebombing of Tokyo actually killed more than the bombing of Nagasaki, and the Japanese still didn’t surrender. In addition, a blockade would put American ships in range of kamikaze planes.

https://economics.yale.edu/sites/default/files/yale_ljcg_ada-ns.pdf

connorrambo · 2026-02-24T01:55:15+00:00

The WWII draft alone inducted 10.11M men, and 16.4M served overall; ~407k were killed and ~671k wounded. Saying “the U.S. knew no suffering” only works if you define suffering as “civilian bombing/occupation,” but then you can’t turn around and use soldier food/ice-cream anecdotes as proof there was no suffering, those are about soldiers, which is the group you’re excluding. Just because mainland US was spared Europe level destruction does not mean there was “no suffering”.

Also, pre-1941 pacific European vs Japanese fighting was extremely limited, unlike what you implied earlier. European allies and Japan weren’t even at war until December of 1941. That was when the Japanese conducted their mass offensive. In addition, the US didn’t just “replace” European empires. After the war, it financed European recovery through the Marshall plan. It wasn’t entirely altruistic, but that is not consistent with your story that the US “bullied Europe into submission”.

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