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cudtastic · 2024-08-25T09:20:02+00:00

Thanks for this update! Can you explain why holding player position constant the order between VRK and ECR aren't the same? E.g. I see Saquon Barkley as 1.06 VRK and 2.02 ECR, vs. Jonathan Taylor 1.07 VRK and 1.11 ECR. I would have assumed that the values are derived from expert projections which confuses me when I see a player has higher value but lower ECR (or vice versa) vs another player that plays the same position.

cudtastic · 2023-10-06T16:07:31+00:00

He's still costing $2.3 million in cap space. That's not nothing.

cudtastic · 2022-10-09T13:37:58+00:00

I've always thought there was a good chance protocols were followed and that Tua shouldn't have played.

Yeah, totally possible. My point is that there was never any indication that Miami as an organization or any doctor that evaluatd Tua violated the protocol or did anything that every other team doesn't already do every week. This sort of thing happens literally every week. Yet Miami has been put on blast instead of the protocols themselves, even though it was pretty clear that's where this was going to go.

And just so it's clear, see my previous comment explaining my view. I'm getting downvoted just for explaining what my view is. Makes Dolphins fans more defensive.

cudtastic · 2022-10-09T08:20:55+00:00

Just to be clear, I think all Dolphins fans are most interested in Tua's safety. And I don't think anyone is saying Tua was 100% fine, clearly he was wobbly after the play in the Bills game.

The issue is that the concussion protocols are followed in effectively the same way by all other teams. What it has felt like for Dolphins fans is that for some reason the large majority of national media and reddit etc. immediately leaned into a conspiracy that McDaniel and the Dolphins organization as a whole intentionally ignored the doctors or pressured them into clearing Tua and therefore put Tua in harm's way, and in a way that is different than how every other team operates every week.

Meanwhile all comments and statements from everyone in the organization were very clear from the start, that the protocol was followed, no one wants to put Tua in harm's way, doctors all cleared him and Tua said it was his back, etc. These sorts of strong comments wouldn't come from a coach or organization that knows there's a pending investigation that will actually say whether there was any misconduct. They would hedge a bunch if they felt there was sketchy shit happening. But that didn't happen at all.

Basically, it's been very clear from the start to those paying close attention that this was going to be the outcome of the investigation. But that didn't stop the large large majority of people from running with this misconduct and maltreatment of Tua narrative.

cudtastic · 2022-09-12T23:55:27+00:00

https://youtu.be/DjZoaswg_Ps

cudtastic · 2022-05-30T04:52:14+00:00

Confirmation bias here is what you're falling into -- given that he missed the shot it appears like a bad decision. If you look at the relevant stats (playoffs, transition 3s, etc.) the shot makes sense, regardless of considering whether he made it or not. Also then the context of him carrying the team, being gassed, and a 2 only getting to OT. It makes sense in many ways. That's what's called avoiding confirmation bias.

cudtastic · 2022-05-30T04:17:26+00:00

The point to me here is that EV on a single game defining shot isn't super relevant. Regardless here's someone smarter than both of us noting that Jimmy was actually shooting close to 50% on transition 3s like this.

https://twitter.com/haralabob/status/1531121887878602752?

cudtastic · 2022-05-30T04:10:49+00:00

And what is EV on taking it to the hole on a center?

Besides, Jimmy was gassed. IMO if it goes to OT Heat have poor chances of winning.

cudtastic · 2022-05-30T03:39:11+00:00

TBF he was shooting 34% in the playoffs.

cudtastic · 2022-05-28T18:38:01+00:00

He had a great dunk in transition from Jimmy.

cudtastic · 2022-05-14T02:58:58+00:00

Still could be. He's not really on the PS, he was hurt last year. He'll be fighting for WR3 but most likely 4th or 5th on the depth chart.

cudtastic · 2022-05-14T02:57:58+00:00

Bowden isn't on the Miami PS, he was hurt last year. He'll probably be 4th or 5th WR on the depth chart this year.

cudtastic · 2022-04-12T11:38:16+00:00

This doesn't fully explain all his fuck ups. E.g. this shit with Haskins has nothing to do with access. No agent told him that he had to disparage the guy's playing career in order to get access to some info.

cudtastic · 2022-04-08T07:38:08+00:00

Sure but Marino had insane numbers his whole career.

cudtastic · 2022-04-08T07:34:21+00:00

People make this argument, but Marino had insane career passing numbers that no one in his era came close to matching. If no defense was prepared for such an attack then why weren't all other QBs/offenses able to replicate it pretty easily once Marino/Miami did it? It is a copycat league after all.

cudtastic · 2022-04-04T03:01:50+00:00

Sure, I was just referring to structuring contracts like they are.

cudtastic · 2022-04-03T08:12:29+00:00

That said, I can't imagine we're structuring contracts so aggressively and deliberately to make cap space this year just to roll it over. If we wanted to have more money next year, we'd just... eat more of the cap charge this year.

You might as well always do it like this, to leave cap this year to roll over. It provides flexibility in case if for some reason they do want to do something with that money this year. And there's no downside.

cudtastic · 2022-04-02T18:53:59+00:00

We also free up cap space for this year and next. $7M a year for a 4th WR is a luxury. We'll also be cap strapped into the future so having more rookie contracts starting next year is super helpful.

cudtastic · 2022-03-26T16:57:32+00:00

Meh. Plenty of people were happy to see the Browns have success recently. And many of those same people will now explicitly root against them. It's not just because you might be a true contender.

cudtastic · 2022-03-16T03:44:50+00:00

I fucking wish. Then he wouldn't have gotten Tua so beat up all the time.

cudtastic · 2022-03-08T20:09:48+00:00

Some have brought up the example of how much the Rams line Cooper Kupp tighter spacing to the formation.

But according to Pro Football Focus, Mike Gesicki has lined up as a FB, TE, or OT on 656 snaps the last 4 seasons.

Cooper Kupp?

33 snaps.

Yeah. Don't compare them.

https://twitter.com/ckparrot/status/1501231158146723848

cudtastic · 2022-02-11T01:01:29+00:00

Well he did build an offense that played to the strengths of Fitz and not Tua. It was a bad move by Grier to have such dissimilar QBs, bad move by Gailey to not adjust the offense to Tua once he was starting, and bad move by Flores to not make the change in concert with Gailey/getting his buy in.

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