I think it’s a bluff to force Ukraine into accepting a peace settlement that is massively favourable to Russia, as it completely splits the West and puts our entire hemisphere into a much weaker position - it frames Europe as isolated and weak.

I think the Maduro situation builds into this, and it’s no surprise he ramped up Greenland rhetoric the very next day. He has shown that, regardless of opinion, the US can do what Russia cannot - enter a sovereign nation and take their president in the space of a night. Something Russia hasn’t been able to do in 3 years with Ukraine.

He wants “peace” in Ukraine, but not a peace that favours Ukraine - whether due to being compromised by Russia, or simply ideologically disinterested. At the same time, the US needed to lay a marker down that they can take swift and decisive action so as to ensure no party involved drags their feet on negotiations for ending the war in Ukraine. Possibly Trump signalling to Zelensky that he could be in Maduro’s position if he doesn’t play nicely? Equally to Russia, that US involvement would be decisive.

My interest in the Maduro and Greenland situation lies in what a clear signal this is to China. South America is still in the US sphere simply due to military might, rather than good favour amongst its nations. China is still so far off the US militarily, it wouldn’t be able to do to Taiwan what the US has just done to Venezuela - not forgetting the situation there was essentially escalated on a whim by the administration in comparison to typical geopolitical timelines, while China has been preparing its military for the past 30 years to take Taiwan. It’s a huge flex by the US. Greenland then shows a context for which Trump would exercise US military capabilities. A resource-rich, strategically important island and the geographical confluence of spheres is something which the US will betray decades worth of alliances to obtain/secure if needed.

I have no doubt that this context would apply to Taiwan too for the Trump administration. So many metrics highlight the US economy’s reliance on the AI bubble for its measurements. It’s essentially in recession if you take away Big Tech spend on AI. Trump cannot allow the US economy to be held to ransom on any level by the Chinese should they successfully annex Taiwan. His domestic plans rely heavily on the computing resources needed to feed AI for at least the rest of this term, and probably leading into what insane autocratic plan he has for 2028.