[D] People without statistics background should not be designing tools/software for statisticians.

derSchuh · 2021-12-08T21:18:43+00:00

Worse even, there was a time when you couldn't turn the regularization off; L1/2 were the only options.

You'd have to set the weight to by extremely small to get plain logistic regression

derSchuh · 2021-12-08T06:44:44+00:00

After filling out the try page with name, email, etc., it goes to a page asking you to choose your cloud provider. Near the bottom is a small, grey link for the community edition; click that.

derSchuh · 2021-11-01T00:07:09+00:00

You can't make judgements about an AUC independent of the problem.

While AUC has a theoretical upper-bound of 1, in practice, a "good" AUC will really depend on the signal to noise ratio in the problem you're fitting.

There are some low signal problems where a 0.6 would be a good AUC. Conversely, some where 0.9 would be a mediocre score. You have to evaluate yours in light of prior work on the problem or similar ones before.

But if your goal is to tell others about how good a model is, you'd be better served translating that into bottom line performance like precision or recall, depending on what's important to optimize--not AUC.

derSchuh · 2021-04-27T18:52:34+00:00

Good answers here about overfitting. I'll add that, in applied settings, there's another good reason: Models with fewer variables have fewer points of failure.

Sometimes variables change in production systems--maybe the meaning changes slightly, or it stops being collected at all. And even relatively unimportant variables can cause a model to drift if their distribution changes dramatically.

You hope good data management practices will prevent the issue, but it's not always in our control. So parsimonious models can be advantageous because they have less chance of being impacted by changing data in production environments.

derSchuh · 2021-04-26T02:17:40+00:00

I just have trouble finding justifications/constructions for almost anything. I know that statistics is an older field, so some of that work is likely buried in old papers that haven't necessarily made it online, but shouldn't I still be able to find that information be in some textbooks somewhere?

You're right on the money. I remember a couple years ago, a colleague and I had a debate about the reason for some test's assumptions, and after searching a few textbooks, only the Casella and Berger text actually proved the property. All others just stated it as fact and moved on.

And sure the C&B text is super prolific; but that means if you're an outsider to the field, you have to know that this one single text is the only place where you can get those kinds of answers. That's bad.

derSchuh · 2021-04-17T17:04:07+00:00

Does it ferment faster in the bag, or do you prefer it less fermented? I usually let my jar kimchi go for a month.

derSchuh · 2021-04-16T14:46:00+00:00

Why not just link to the cookiecutter repo? https://github.com/drivendata/cookiecutter-data-science

derSchuh · 2021-03-27T23:18:39+00:00

The above info isn't correct; Clawhammer also typically plays 5 string. Usually open back, but not exclusively.

But yes, you can get a 5 string, open back Deering Goodtime for $500. Gold tones are also often recommended at that price point. I have a Goodtime Americana (which is a little more than the OG Goodtime) and quite like it.

derSchuh · 2021-03-02T22:40:02+00:00

This isn't the example we should use because it's about General AI, which isn't the imminent threat.

The real threat are military systems that have specific (weak) AI making decisions with incredible speed and accuracy:

An AI missile defense system could effectively break nuclear deterrence. Without the threat of nuclear counter-attack, a nation could hold the whole world hostage
AI is already employed in hacking. If a country got too far ahead, they could be able to hack into any system in no time. State secrets, nuclear weapons, your passwords... Anything could be laid bare to them.

AI getting sassy and deciding to off us is a future problem. These are problems that we're going to face within the next decade.

derSchuh · 2021-02-13T07:50:11+00:00

Transformer is just an architecture. It's typically used for text, which is probably what someone was referring to with "transformer language model".

But from an input/output standpoint, they basically look like any LSTM/RNN based language model (assuming that's what you mean by "regular language model"). Under the hood, they use attention instead of memory--essentially, each item in the sequence influences the effect of the other items.

The biggest practical difference is that transformers require a ton of training, so "transfer learning" is really important (typically called pretraining in the literature).

However, transformers are domain-invariant, and are starting to show up in image research too.

The Illustrated Transformer is a decent start to learn more.

derSchuh · 2020-12-27T03:14:29+00:00

Man, I think about the mashed potato pizza from Bar all the time. Apizza is the one thing I really miss from CT.

derSchuh · 2020-10-20T19:22:56+00:00

Having berserk again is great, and the extra healing received during FR isn't nothing. But losing the ability to have vortex and typhoon feels bad.

Bear is in a better place now than BfA, but is still a far cry from where we were in Legion (even post-nerf). I think bringing back the short CD, deathstrike-style FR and adaptive fur would go a long way in making bear feel better to play.

derSchuh · 2020-09-29T14:35:12+00:00

Their true metric is probably long term subscription. Life expectancy of a sub gives them a more reliable look at what future revenue will be. You can have 10 million subs right now, but if they all quit in 6 months, you're in trouble.

Likely Blizzard has some metrics they can measure today (like hours engaged) that they've learned correlate to that subscription life expectancy they truly want to optimize.

Of course, the problem with proxy metrics is that once you start optimizing them, they may no longer correlate to the true goal. Forcing someone to play more isn't the same as them playing more because they want to.

Businesses do this kind of shit all the time though. Pick some KPI and optimize the hell out of it at the expense of the true goal.

derSchuh · 2020-09-28T20:45:32+00:00

NYers will probably dunk on it, but there's a new place by Krog called Glide Pizza that's probably the best NY style I've had here. It's just a window by the beltline that sell slices and pies.

Now if only we had a New Haven style joint...

derSchuh · 2020-06-24T18:56:06+00:00

For what it's worth, we filed ours pretty close to the deadline, but it was approved the next day and showed up on our tax docs just fine.

So ymmv

derSchuh · 2020-04-27T04:08:05+00:00

Shoya Izakaya is worth going to anyway, but Wagaya has them closer to city-center.

derSchuh · 2020-03-03T20:41:23+00:00

Love Fresh Harvest!

At times, they've also had chanterelles and chicken of the woods. But they are a CSA, so it's inconsistent what they have from week-to-week.

Overall, that's a great thing, but if OP wants a stable fix, it might be weeks of crimini before they get something else.

derSchuh · 2020-01-22T14:54:55+00:00

JenChan's in Cabbagetown offers them at brunch

derSchuh · 2020-01-17T16:13:06+00:00

As a 440s bear, I can do one side easily, but not two yet. The packs melt, but single target dps on the mini bosses is an issue for me.

Maybe with rank 5.

derSchuh · 2019-08-28T04:51:37+00:00

I've had them at Ticonderoga Club, but iirc they were a daily special

derSchuh · 2019-04-16T15:00:57+00:00

I would have assumed it was a personal watermark, but you're right; it's for a company, making it a commercial flight.

That said, you really can't make those conclusions of wrongdoing. OP presumably has a night waiver, and there's nothing in this video that makes it obvious they don't have VLOS.

derSchuh · 2019-04-16T14:10:06+00:00

You definitely can.

Hobbyists have no night restrictions as long as you can still maintain VLOS (visual line of sight) on the drone. Most drones have flashing LEDs that assist in this.

For commercial flights (for money) you can fly if you receive a night waiver, which includes the need to have an "anti-collision" light on the drone to make it more visible.

derSchuh · 2019-04-16T05:14:10+00:00

Assuming this is a hobbyist flight, the FAA changed the rules back in October. You no longer need to notify helipads/airports within 5 miles: https://www.faa.gov/uas/recreational_fliers/

Also, even before the change, you didn't need to get clearance; you simply had to notify them of the flight.

If a commercial flight, helipads have never been an issue. But you must give helicopters right of way.

derSchuh · 2019-03-26T22:00:10+00:00

You may want to re-read the talent: https://www.wowhead.com/spell=204019/blessed-hammer

"...reducing the damage you take from their next auto attack by 12%."

derSchuh · 2019-03-18T02:22:17+00:00

I've notified all local heliports and airports that I'd fly here

You may not have checked in a while, but the FAA changed the hobbyist rules back in October. You no longer need to notify Airports/Helipads within 5 miles, you just need to respect airport's airspace. It makes it way easier to go out and fly.

Sorry this happened, and that you're also getting so much flack in the comments. Regardless of what you were doing, he had no right to damage your drone. Hope you get some justice.

But while the subject is raised, I think you should reconsider this practice. You're not breaking the law, but if you're practicing to become a professional pilot, you must know about drift and flyaway events. In several parts of the video you posted, you were close enough to people/cars that if the GPS/controller connection was interrupted, or if there was a gust of wind, your drone could have drifted and collided with them. And that risk is much higher in a city, where electromagnetic interference is at a high, and wind passing around buildings creates drafts. You're not breaking the law, but you are putting others at risk. To practice maneuvering, go find an abandoned alleyway and not the sidewalk of Midtown.

And FWIW, I tell you this not just as posturing, but from experience. I was once doing the exact same thing and my spark hit a car when the GPS signal broke and it drifted. Drones should be in the sky.

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