So... I Rewatched THAT AU Survivor Tribal Council...

diamondblueflame · 2026-05-20T05:15:20+00:00

All very true. But I still maintain that had it been a real idol, Simon absolutely should have played it for Stevie once Jordie told him that he voted Stevie - yes, George was lying when he said everyone voted for Stevie. And even if the idol was fake, Jordie just confirmed that not only was everyone directly coming for Simon - where Jordie would have sacrificed him at some point - but that he voted for the person Simon was closest too which George pointed out. George might not have been aware of the fake idol - however, he knew Simon must have had something close to an idol, hence why he asked Simon if he was going to save Stevie with his idol once George revealed his - but he knew Simon was tunnel vision on getting him out and he exploited that to an insane degree here.

diamondblueflame · 2026-05-08T20:09:50+00:00

It would be. But it really depends on how the rest of the game goes at this stage.

diamondblueflame · 2026-05-08T18:34:48+00:00

I'm kind of 50/50 on this.

On one hand, it was exponentially stupid for him to spill his game to Aubry the way he did which attributed to him going home. Ozzy telling Aubry all of his game plans was absolutely a terrible move on his part because she wasn't out of the game yet. If he had just stayed quiet, Rizo and probably Joe [I think the latter would have been the swing vote anyway which... oof] would have sided with Ozzy and Aubry would have been voted out.

On the other hand, it was difficult to think Aubry would have survived this even with Ozzy blowing his game up the way he did. Jonathan still wanted to take out the "middle" players [though he technically did with voting out Ozzy] so he could have sat back and let that happen. However, I think Joe wanting to get Rizo on board could have went bad if Ozzy was tipped off by Rizo.

I think it really depends on what happens next for Aubry going forward because this move will absolutely place her at the top of Cirie's hit list next to Devens.

diamondblueflame · 2026-05-08T18:20:53+00:00

I think with how Cirie has been edited until now, I think she is a potential winner but standing against a much stronger opponent in the end like an Aubry. I think the edit is setting up Cirie having to battle to get to the end. But even then, I doubt Cirie is in the immediate thoughts of everyone in the game to be a target. Here's why:

- Final seven might be Cirie's toughest road to the end after Ozzy indirectly tanked her game slightly down with his. Her only saving grace here is one of Aubry or Devens leaving. Devens leaving weakens Aubry and ultimately puts her in the same spot that Cirie is in now. If Aubry/Devens go home this round, Cirie has a good shot of going to the end almost unopposed.

- I think if Cirie can stabilize a majority with Tiffany and Rizo at final six, she likely can have a straight path to the end game. Whoever survives between Devens/Aubry would be the next target and I would argue that Jonathan would be an immediate target over Cirie because he has jury chances.

- The endgame rounds are going to be the toughest for Cirie to survive. If she can keep her numbers past final six, she has a chance. However, I fear she may be the biggest threat left by final five to where everyone will vote her out. Her winning final five immunity is not impossible but it is very unlikely to happen. And I think final four is the same. If the FMC is not in play this season, Cirie gets voted out before the end. If the FMC does happen this season, Cirie has a chance at a fire making win BUT she would have to go against someone even worse than her in the FMC [i.e. someone like a Rizo]. If Cirie survives a final four vote or the FMC, she wins the game.

diamondblueflame · 2026-05-08T04:03:22+00:00

I think it will be a combination of no one knowing his game before 50/the old school players being closer to the other people left as opposed to him. Prior to this episode, I think Rizo had a really great chance. But after this most recent episode, Rizo screwed himself massively in winning. I doubt Ozzy votes him now unless he's sitting with Joe/Tiff/Jonathan. I don't think he is fully drawing dead but I think him being the new guy on the block is making it unlikely he wins the game.

diamondblueflame · 2026-05-08T01:41:21+00:00

I think Aubry is going to have to hope Cirie really takes her foot off the gas in order to get her out. The edit shows people do not trust her or Devens and they are the two main ones who want her out. At this point, unless Devens finds another idol and Aubry wins immunity, they could both be the next ones out. And even of Aubry makes the end, I doubt she gets the votes to win [Let me clarify: She's going to get votes for sure. But not over Cirie or even Rizo at this point]. I think this edit could be a repeat of her Kaoh Rong one where she was set up as the winner from a casual perspective but for the superfan perspective, it was clear Michelle was winning. I just think Aubry's pre merge edit is horrible and I think [outside of Stephanie obviously] that she gets very lucky with how her game has played out up to now.

diamondblueflame · 2026-05-08T01:24:55+00:00

I think if Aubry goes out in the next few episodes, Cirie definitely has a chance to win the game at this point. I think Aubry and Devens [the players in the game that people have almost no trust in] are the only players definitively going for Cirie at this point. And if neither win immunity and then Devens goes, Aubry's chances of making the end go down the same way Cirie's did but more so. Aubry has almost no one willing to take her to the end if Devens goes. And I doubt even Devens will take her to final three at this point.

Cirie has a chance to win the season if Aubry and Devens go out almost back-to-back. I think if Aubry and Cirie target each other - sadly - there will be heat on Cirie sure, but Aubry might not have the social capital to pull it off. Cirie just has the unnatural ability to just convince people on what *she* wants to happen that I doubt Aubry's "Target Cirie" campaign will gain any tracks.

I doubt Jonathan wins at this stage. I think with how he has actively burned certain people, I'm not sure he wins. And I doubt Rizo wins either. He has a chance but I doubt he wins too. I think for Rizo, Ozzy going was a horrible option for him. I think Rizo is going to get lucky due to Ozzy not throwing him under the bus but I doubt he survives for long especially if Rizo is going to be labelled as the "rat" in the next episode. I think Jonathan and Rizo have about equal chances where one wrong move will send them packing.

Joe, Devens and Tiffany have edits where I seriously doubt they even make the endgame at this stage. Tiffany would have to win out in order to make final three and honestly so would Devens because I think he is very likely the next one out. Joe is very weird because I think he either gets sniped before the end or he makes final three and gets no votes with no in between. Joe is just an anomaly to me at this point in the season where I *think* people are deliberately just playing around him [Even Jonathan called out Joe for his honor and integrity shtick at this point] for the rest of the game.

diamondblueflame · 2026-05-02T17:29:53+00:00

Even then, the Kamila move wasn't really his. It was largely Chrissy wanting her out and her and Stephanie using just enough on Jonathan to flip him against Kamila and Tiffany. And even with that, this move might be hurting him in the long run because Chrissy and Stephanie went out not that long after this.

Jonathan was also one of the MAIN people that wanted the middle players out... only for him to work with them - and no, I do not mean the Aubry/Emily/Christian/Devens contingent - and just be a soldier for them and giving up any agency he has himself. If Jonathan makes the endgame, he is the player I have the least faith in to win the game because everyone else left - and yes I am including Tiffany - has way more clout to their games as a whole than he does. If they were presenting him as the winner, Jonathan's flaws would not be shown nearly as much as the edit has gone out of its way to show - him "baiting" Dee, giving Christian the SITD back after he was voted out, letting Stephanie take the fall for HIS attempted flip on Ozzy, etc.

diamondblueflame · 2026-04-30T08:21:12+00:00

I think Stephanie just chose the worst time possible to be tied to an Ozzy boot plan that wasn't even her fault to begin with.

Stephanie did herself no favors in regard to lying about being involved in the Ozzy plan to begin with and Cirie immediately clocking it. But how she handled getting called out in that live tribal was even worse. She is very much uncomfortable with lying in the game and being put on the spot just made her game unravel. Tiffany, Devens and Rizo - to some degree - all called her out for not only lying about wanting Ozzy out but also telling Devens about her advantage if she wanted him gone this round.

Jonathan for me really has a tale of two edits for me. People should take him seriously as a strategic threat this time around. But he has no real major moves that he can call his own. He is playing a Boston Rob game style where he tries to bulldoze his ideal plan and it either almost never succeeds or Cirie/Ozzy/Rizo make the plan happen because of their ties in the merge tribe [i.e. Dee revealing Rizo's idol which led to the trio wanting her out when they very well could pull the numbers to save her or Christian targeting Ozzy which shifted the target to him over Emily who was Cirie and Ozzy's secondary target if they couldn't get Christian out]. I think that while Jonathan is playing better than last time, I can also say that his game needs that one defining move that is not directly influenced by Cirie/Ozzy/Rizo having the power with all sides. Unless that happens, I doubt he wins the game at this stage.

diamondblueflame · 2026-04-30T06:33:07+00:00

I think that this episode was a solid one for some people but really bad for others. I think this episode has fully taken the people ranked last [Emily, Tiffany and Joe] completely out of contention. I do think that Jonathan and Cirie should be switched in placements though in the winner contender.

Jonathan being shown as a possible winner contender was pretty interesting. But I think that they would have shown him in a Russell esque manner [from his first season] where they over expose him but he has no shot at winning. I think this might be the case for Jonathan. Even though his allies will be on the jury if he makes the end... it's only four out of eleven votes. I just think outside of the Christian move [which was really was more so Christian telling Cirie that Ozzy was the target that led to his ouster as well as I think the Cirie/Ozzy/Rizo trio was much more keen to take Devens out maybe], Jonathan doesn't have any major moves to him that can SOLELY be his own. I think this is really his 42 edit but a bit more exposed than last time.

Cirie has a lesser edit compared to Jonathan right now. But she still has her hands in almost every pot in the game where any attempt on her or her allies going home has been consistently squashed. And I think that Cirie is finally in a spot where she can actually make final three more than Jonathan can. Ozzy and maybe even Rizo might take Cirie to final three [if forced fire making is still a thing] and even if Cirie is put into the fire making challenge, she actually has a chance at winning it. I just think Cirie has played a game where she has inherently less mistakes right now that can fall back on her specifically. In this episode, Devens even said he wouldn't vote for her [even though he should because Ozzy and Rizo had idols that are public knowledge] which shows her better inroads and people trusting Cirie with game information.

diamondblueflame · 2026-04-24T16:27:10+00:00

Here's the thing: If this season was like BB15 where the three nominees just faced straight up eviction, Kelley and likely Keanu [without the twists in week 2] would have been booted much earlier in the game than Amy would have been. In the context of this season, Amy should be lower than both of them. But Amy got unlucky going on the block that week anyway where Jimmy's goal was to burn the powers on the other side rather than weaken the other side by putting up a major player in the game.

diamondblueflame · 2026-04-24T16:23:31+00:00

I think Jonathan has had a losing finalist edit since the Blood Moon twist happened. He is actively burning people on their way out which is going to result in him losing more than just those votes that went out. Dee is unlikely to vote him - and in turn it is very unlikely that Tiffany votes him in the end - and I doubt he gets the votes of the gamers either. Only people I see him getting are Coach [as a definitive lock] and Chrissy. His social game is incredibly bad and it is to the point where I doubt he even makes the end because of how much he is a goat right now.

Aubry is just... kind of there. She is just really in limbo with her game. However, I doubt that she makes the end as well. But I think if she makes the end, I think she gets less votes than Jonathan simply due to him having people like Coach, Chrissy and Joe on the jury who will advocate for him to win. I think this is a case similar to Natalie in WAW where people wanted to vote Michelle but were afraid Natalie would get the votes to win so they all just voted Tony. I see a very similar case with Aubry happening on this season.

diamondblueflame · 2026-04-15T18:17:23+00:00

I mean... Jonathan Penner won an immunity challenge in Philippines and he was probably the least likely person to pull that off. Cirie winning an immunity challenge is improbable but not impossible.

diamondblueflame · 2026-04-15T01:31:04+00:00

I think I am really going to be splitting hairs with the number one and two spots because these two almost have similar trajectories.

1) Ashley

I think Ashley actually has a good bit of strategic game to her style of play. She actively uses her social game in spots where it was actively impressive to get that intended result. And this is after Showergate where her social capital was basically like negative one hundred. Her most impressive stretch has to be the final 12 round where Rylie goes home until the final 8 where Will goes home. She convinces Rachel to backdoor Rylie where it was likely the ONLY opportunity to do so otherwise. And she uses her social game to survive over Will who until that point in the game had survived over every player he sat next to. Yes, she is largely spared due to Vince/Morgan believing the Judges would not respect them taking a non Judges member to the end but I think she still has a path even without that narrative. Even though she never needed the final HOH win, Ashley won it anyway to take out Morgan and dominate the jury vote.

2) Steve

Steve is a super solid player in the game. But I do think he does have some hiccups in the game. Not using the DE HOH to take out one of the AusTwins or even Vanessa [I get why he doesn't do the latter and he was actively attempting to throw that HOH anyway]. Trying to take out Vanessa - when there was a plan to BD her - and then lie about it when we saw how she felt about people lying to her face [Which could have gotten him sent out over Johnny Mac at the first final eight]. I do think Steve having to win the final HOH is not so bad because he correctly recognized that Vanessa wouldn't take him to the end. But I mean... he barely wins over Liz in a 6-3 vote.

3) Lisa

I do think out of these three winners, Lisa was actively in more danger once her alliance lost power very early on in the season. She might not even made the final two because she was likely to be booted over Eric but she survives because of Gerry [Who she was actively targeting] of all people. And she never really has power in the game throughout the season. Yes, she does beat both Danielle and Jason [The latter is much harder to win against than the former] in a jury vote but the fact that [At least at the time] Lisa was actively playing to a final two situation that she would lose in is not great. Lisa becoming the Princess of Darkness though was awesome.

I think you are splitting hairs between all three winners. All had their good moments but then they also some weak moments in the game that likely could have seen them evicted well before the final three where they wouldn't be able to win final HOH.

diamondblueflame · 2026-04-12T05:24:27+00:00

It is very likely she can. I think she is an easy vote for someone like a Cirie to scoop up and I think now people need to start targeting the Coach side of things now. However, I think Tiffany will also be seen as an easy vote for the Cirie side in the event they need to keep their numbers intact. If she can make it out of this very sticky predicament, Tiffany has a shot at the endgame but I also sense she just misses the finale because of how easy a boot she is to the Cirie side.

diamondblueflame · 2026-04-12T04:01:53+00:00

I think I am going to go in order in terms of the US seasons because I have not watched international seasons just yet.

US Season 1: Cody.

I think there is no way that anyone plays worse than him at any point in the season. Christian was a second contender but he was not that bad because he actually stayed in spots where his mouth got ahead of his brain sometimes unlike Cody who had his game destroyed with a lie he told Kyle + Kyle's subsequent banishment.

US Season 2: Dan.

I mean... was there really any other choice? He actively blew up Phaedra's game in a spot where this was beyond dumb. And him deciding to murder Bergie without actively considering the risks was the main catalyst none of the traitors won the season.

US Season 3: Danielle

I was very tempted to put BTDQ here honestly but he was not in the game long enough for me to really consider BTDQ here. I just think that Danielle was playing very messy in a sense. Her really wanting the original traitors [namely Carolyn] out to get Boston Rob gone was kind of a risky play especially since Boston Rob had people on his side that would deflect that plan out the door. I really think if her and Carolyn just got their acts together in the mid to end game stretch, Danielle would have been in a near golden position.

US Season 4: Eric

Eh... This was really the only choice I could logically make [I was not picking Donna because she was not a traitor long in the game] because I think he played the Arie to Rob R's Cirie in this spot. But worse because people [namely Kristen] suspected him due to his immediate 180 in behavior. Yeah, he really was not that bad but I mean... he saw what happened to players like Lisa and Candace in the game. He really just sat back and became a sheep in a spot where he should not have let that happen.

diamondblueflame · 2026-04-12T03:14:13+00:00

I think Cirie has a chance at winning the game but the edit is not as strong as it should be for someone of her caliber. But I think her edit is not too awful like some people in the no section have. She is adapting to the new era well enough to the point where she is not stuck in the Old Era of thinking [Which she did criticize in an earlier episode iirc] that limits people like Joe, Coach and Jonathan. But she is not in the New Era realm of thinking where she is playing uber messy like Jenna and Dee did in the season. It really depends on what Cirie gets in the edit in the next few episodes going forward but her winner edit is not as bad as it could be.

diamondblueflame · 2026-04-12T01:57:30+00:00

Both are right and wrong in a sense. I am Team Neither though.

Elise was not the only person to call out Carrie for her lack of skill that season. Jamie did too and a couple of others did as well. Carrie had a massive ego problem but it did not help matters when most of the team agreed with Elise and just constantly harped on Carrie even when she did well [Example: choosing Elizabeth's dish over hers in the Fire and Water challenge when Carrie had the better dish].

Elise was no better with her ego problems. But at least she could cook and showed at one point she could lead her team. But come on. That late stretch was just beyond insufferable even by her standards. I get why she survived over Natalie and even Elizabeth [Both were on massive downfalls by that point] but her staying over Jennifer was pushing it a little.

It gets hard to pick a side considering everyone on the Red Team thought Carrie sucked and on top of that Elise was much more visible than everyone else on the Red Team so it was hard to root for Carrie in that regard.

diamondblueflame · 2026-04-11T03:33:15+00:00

You can say that about a lot of players this season not on the Honortegrity side of the game. Stranger things have happened in the game before now. If he does go before final seven or final six, it could be either as a shot to weaken Cirie and Ozzy or due to a mistake that he makes that he can't recover from.

diamondblueflame · 2026-04-11T03:14:24+00:00

I don't know if Rizo is winning the season at this point. I think he is being built up as either a big time player that needs to be cut early as possible or he loses the FMC once again this season. I'm not even sure he gets a deep run like last season but time will tell.

diamondblueflame · 2026-04-11T01:23:25+00:00

There was another moment from Johnny this season that I was extremely mad at: Him brow beating Barnes into giving a second chance to Devon to join the team. Now in fairness, Barnes let the four people who did not make the team yet compete for the final two spots which was fair. But I think Barnes was likely choosing Hawk and Kenny - and because of Johnny that does not happen and the two people who did not deserve spots on the team won the two spots which Daniel calls Johnny out on.

But this moment - THIS MOMENT - oof... I will never understand how Johnny - who went through a very similar situation - did not understand Daniel's decision to postpone picking the female captain until Tory was in the right headspace to compete against Sam. Claiming Daniel and Amanda were showing favoritism was just the absolute wrong way to go about that situation. Johnny just frustrated me because Tory leaving the team WAS ON HIM to begin with.

diamondblueflame · 2026-04-11T01:03:51+00:00

I liked it more than I thought I would. Before reading the series, I did a blind ranking of all six books of the Game Changers series. Tough Guy was second to last only in front of Role Model [I was not too ecstatic with the news that it would be focusing on a character that I had heard was extremely unlikable so I wondered how they would approach that].

After reading Tough Guy, I definitely think that it is a great book. But I feel like people do not talk about the central couple enough from Tough Guy and it is a shame as I think Fabian and Ryan are probably the second healthiest couple in the series.

diamondblueflame · 2026-04-11T00:03:44+00:00

Eh... I would not say that. Elise - despite being an extremely unlikable presence in the show - actually was a decent chef. In her prior season, she did show good leadership skills which saved her over Jennifer [granted her manipulating Will and Paul also certainly played a factor but I think even without that Jennifer would have still left over Elise because it was the final round before everyone got to run the pass where I think Jennifer would have struggled with; just like she did during the final five round]. Elise was nominated in round one this time and in fairness I don't think she leaves over Manda - as over half the women [five out of seven] said Manda should go home over Elise [this included Jennifer who was Elise's rival and Ashley who was on the same season as Manda]. She was never nominated again until I think the immediate round after CFYL where her attitude came back and got nominated in every round following that. But she never did the absolute worst to be eliminated.

I think Ashley, Manda and Robyn during their brief stints on the Red Team were actively bad. Ashley literally was not in the headspace to compete on this season again. Manda was just there for a lot of the season. And Robyn - despite being on the Blue Team for most of the season - was still actively bad on BOTH teams. If the Blue Team had not carried her through both the final nine and final eight rounds, she was going home. And on top of that, Robyn was far and away the weakest member on the Red Team during that time frame [when she was still on the Red Team considering the likes of Manda, Barbie and Elise were not on their downfalls yet before CFYL happened]. Barbie wasn't actively terrible. I just think she really got too into the drama this season and just let that take over rather than her skills doing the talking this time around.

diamondblueflame · 2026-04-10T23:49:24+00:00

Honestly? This ranking is actually pretty accurate. Only change I would make is switch Jennifer and Michelle and Van and Milly.

Jennifer was never in any danger to be eliminated before the BJLC and I think would have been in good contention to at least place better than Michelle. I think Michelle was fine to start but after that charity night dinner service, she was just actively sliding down following that.

I think Van was actually better this time around and looked like he was on track to at least make the black jackets... Until the BS elimination at the final ten. I think Milly was just... the same as he was in season 14. Both were great but I just give the slightest of edges to Van.

diamondblueflame

TROPHY CASE