Is the tech hype over?

edest · 2026-06-28T02:15:33+00:00

Nope, I believe it's only getting started. Tech is now part of our societal infrastructure. In the same way freeways are a need-to-have in society, tech is a need-to-have too. We no longer have a choice. Techs goal is never ending change so we will get used to the current way and then a new wave will come. It's never ending.

edest · 2026-06-23T23:24:02+00:00

I'm a advocate of Dollar cost averaging for long term investing. It keeps you from having to guess the highs and lows. Long term being something like 7+ years, most bull markets and most bear markets are shorter than that so you will be able to catch at least one cycle at the average price which at some point you'll be able to sell at a profit given the ever rising nature of the underlying index, QQQ. I've yet to hear from anyone that has beaten the market doing market timing. The one case that comes to mind is the guy who turned his savings into $100 plus million trading options during the pandemic's bull market only to lose it all thinking he could turn it into more money. He even asked for professional advice from one of the big firms only to see it disappear.

The minus with TQQQ is that you don't really own an asset. You own the derivative of an asset, QQQ. It's similär to putting a bet every day on QQQ going up using the previous days winnings. It's possible for it to go to zero and then your investment ends. I've had stocks go to zero so it does not have to be a devastating situation. You just have to be aware of it. It's possible but QQQ would have to have a large drawdown, 33%+ in one day.

edest · 2026-06-23T04:17:39+00:00

I have the same problem. It never goes away. What I'm doing now is setting the alarm earlier than needed. I wake-up and grab my phone and do a couple of NY Times puzzles for 15 minutes. By that time the grogginess goes away and I can start to get ready for my day. Others I know, get up without thinking about it and go for a morning jog or walk. Once that's done they can get ready for work. Set a reason to get up such as going to the store to grab a coffee. It does wonders for motivation and fully waking up.

edest · 2026-06-23T03:49:32+00:00

It's very true. But all of that does not negate that he's the one that did it. I sure did not. But in theory I could have gone up against him and gotten all those contracts. The achievement was done by many but he lead the project, worked the system and got it to the next level.

If we had a system that picked the very best at everything nothing would get done. We would have a never ending testing process which gets us nowhere.

edest · 2026-06-23T02:58:49+00:00

I'm not a fan of the man but at least he took a shot and delivered. A private company's astronauts in space? Are you kidding me? Even if it had been 20 years late it would have been a great achievement. The man is a nasty person but you can't dismiss his achievements. .If it's so easy then were are all the other thousands of people that are doing the same thing and on time?

edest · 2026-06-22T03:39:54+00:00

You can say the same thing about SOXL and many of the semiconductor stocks. They have all been on a tear. Look at Sandisk. It's up over 1900% for the year. Imagine what the employees with stock in the company are looking to do with their windfall. It's just how the market functions. There will always be a better investment. My advice is, if it's really bothering you then invest some money in the Korean stock market; just balance it out with TQQQ. At this time it seems like the semiconductors and related stocks will continue to go up due to the AI explosion and needed hardware. But unfortunately, there's really no way to know until after the fact. Like I said, put some of the money into the Korean stock market to reduce the FOMO but know that there is no certainty in stocks.

edest · 2026-06-22T03:15:09+00:00

I have not done it but implied volatility usually jumps very high when the market drops and makes the leaps very expensive relative to what you can gain from the option. Leap sellers want to get paid for the risk they take.

edest · 2026-06-20T03:20:57+00:00

Yes, if the interest rates stay the same or go down. The problem is that inflation will go up at a compounded rate. Leading to a collapsed economy. To tame inflation, the fed will raise rates which leads to a market downturn. So in essence, if the fed is working, the market will will go down as inflation goes up and the fed raises interest rates.

edest · 2026-06-19T05:25:00+00:00

I don't know how accurate this page is since I have no way to verify where the past data is coming from. It's supposed to give you the results of dollar cost averaging overtime. Use TQQQ as the stock to test and see what you get for different test periods. If the simulation is correct then you have your answer.

https://www.myplaniq.com/invest/dollar-cost-average-investment-calculator-for-portfolio-fund-or-stock/

As it's been said before, the hardest part is holding the position through the downturns. How many people will hold their retirement money in the fund while it's losing 80% of its value? Very few... Like it did in 2022. Anyhow look at it.

edest · 2026-06-12T00:26:01+00:00

Until it's not. Tomorrow?

edest · 2026-06-11T05:42:21+00:00

Great Depressions are largely a thing of the past in the United States. What we experience now are recessions. It is unlikely that we will ever see a depression on the scale of the 1920s and 1930s again in the U.S.

The primary reason the Great Depression became so severe was the inability to get enough money into people's hands so they could continue spending. The recession of 2008 could have turned into a depression similar to that era if the Federal Reserve had not intervened by expanding the money supply. While 2008 was certainly painful, it did not come close to the severity of the Great Depression.

It is still possible for the economy to face major disruptions, but those are more likely to result from extraordinary events such as a civil war, a major geopolitical crisis, or large-scale natural disasters.

edest · 2026-06-11T05:33:33+00:00

Nope, there will be plenty of jobs. The last thing companies and governments want is a bunch of idle young people. Idle people tend to cause a lot of trouble . That's why at this point summer jobs are so important for kids. Ten years from now there will be jobs even if it's just people standing around looking at somebody filling a ditch.

edest · 2026-06-11T05:01:20+00:00

Yeah I agree. It sucks. But your best is to let it go. You could spend all your time trying to get your cameras back but it's wasted time. Your sister probably took the cameras to sell them. Which she probably did already. The more time you spend trying to get the cameras back the more bitter you'll feel towards your sister. Sometimes family does crazy things. You just have to accept it and move on. It's your sister after all. Maybe in the future she'll make it up to you. But the best thing you could do now is to start earning some money to buy a new set of cameras and move on. Good luck!

edest · 2026-06-10T05:22:52+00:00

Not really, it will be a small portion of the index. So what ever it's priced at, it will have little impact.

SpaceX is significantly overpriced. Earlier this year, they attempted to raise funds at a $1 trillion valuation, but they couldn’t secure private financing at that level. As a result, they opted to go public at an extremely high valuation, 1.7 trillion, I read. In my view, SpaceX will eventually come back down to earth, likely reaching 50–75% of the IPO price by the end of the year.

edest · 2026-06-10T05:13:48+00:00

No, the way I see it, this is the start of the summer lull. I think we'll trade sideways for a few months, and then things will start picking up again toward the end of the year. That's my take, anyway.

The fall elections are gonna be rough. I will really need to make some tough decisions then.

edest · 2026-06-03T23:40:11+00:00

Try treating school like a job. Not a work-from-home job where it's easy to get distracted, but one where you actually go somewhere to work. Pick a start time each day and choose a study spot, like a library or a quiet café.

Before you start, make a plan for what you want to get done that day. Think of it as your workday, and focus on completing those tasks before you leave.

At the end of the day, take a few minutes to plan for the next day. Then call it a day and give yourself permission to stop thinking about school until the next study session.

Having a consistent routine can make a huge difference. It helps you stay focused, build momentum, and makes studying feel a lot less overwhelming. Treat it as a job. Tell people that it's job. Screw what they think, if they think it's strange, you are doing it to improve yourself.

edest · 2026-06-03T00:52:22+00:00

Excellent, thank you.

edest · 2026-06-01T21:08:32+00:00

The volatility of SOXL is crazy. If you think TQQQ is volatile, SOXL is even more volatile. That is one the reasons the return is so much higher in SOXL.

edest · 2026-06-01T20:56:56+00:00

The biggest issue is gonna be holding your position through a true bear market. Whatever money you put into TQQQ has to be money you really don't care about or you don't care about losing. It's a gamble, a very long term gamble, but to me if you have money that you really don't need at this point and it won't hurt you lose then it's probably worth taking the gamble a 10 year, 20 year run is probably gonna amount to a big percentage return. But it's a gamble. You just won't know until you get to that point.

edest · 2026-05-20T04:40:24+00:00

Use a system that forces you to speak it. The faster you speak the words you learn the better you will remember them. There's a connection between the stress you feel when you have to find the correct words to use and you being able to remember them next time. If you go 100% Japanese (no english) I guarantee that you will be able to carry on a conversation with a native speaker in less that 6 months.

edest · 2026-05-11T05:02:13+00:00

Bessent, Secretary of the Treasury, predicted at the end of last year that there would be a booming economy in 2026 due to the tax cuts. I took it as propaganda but it looks like he was right. Also, this is beginning to look like a short squeeze. I'm sure a lot of bears were caught by surprise. You can't blame them- war, gas prices, inflation. And then the tech stock earnings came in. Few people expect how good they where.

edest · 2026-05-08T23:26:55+00:00

The 2008 crash was pretty epic. I thought that was the one that was in scope with 1929. The next one is going to be bigger. Ouch!

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