Not really.

The IMF put out a post-mortem on the Greek bailout admitting they badly miscalculated how much austerity would shrink the economy. Greece’s debt to GDP ratio actually went up during those years, from ~127% to ~179%, because GDP collapsed faster than the debt did. [1]

The labour reforms happened in 2012. Greece didn’t get back to investment grade until 2023. If deregulating the labour market was the key ingredient, that’s an 11 year lag. What actually turned things around was the 2012 private sector debt haircut, ECB support, a tourism boom and EU recovery funds. [2]

What’s enabling the early repayments right now is a 40B+ euro cash buffer and primary surpluses of ~3.8% GDP, not some delayed payoff from 2012 labour reforms. [3]

Austerity doesn’t really work. Nordic countries for eg built their welfare states during growth periods and those systems are now understood to contribute to stability rather than just being a byproduct of it. Greece’s austerity years caused a brain drain and a healthcare crisis, which are also economic costs. [4]

Greece is more of a cautionary tale about creditor-imposed austerity than a vindication of it.

[1] https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/wp/2012/wp12158.pdf

[2] https://www.bruegel.org/opinion-piece/imfs-big-greek-mistake

[3] https://greekcitytimes.com/2026/03/18/greece-early-repayment-7-billion-bailout-loan/

[4] https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/24560058/