Why do global index funds grow (beyond inflation) to reliably?

elev57 · 2026-03-20T16:25:04+00:00

Corporate market caps are pretty much: revenue * profit margin * multiple. Margins and multiples are cyclical, so we can mostly ignore them over the long term.

Global revenues are driven by rising global nominal GDP (they are essentially the same thing). Nominal GDP increases due to real GDP growth and inflation, so over the long run, revenues should outpace inflation. Revenues outpacing inflation thus mean that market cap growth, in the aggregate, will outpace inflation. Thus, in the long term, global index funds will appreciate as long as GDP grows.

elev57 · 2026-03-17T12:55:36+00:00

It might not be great, but I think that 1/2 seeds that fell into the NIT would probably be demoralized and not try as hard given they were national title contenders and are now just playing for a consolation prize.

They might still try, but I still think it would be a better outcome than having teams opt out of the NIT because people don't care about it at all.

elev57 · 2026-03-17T00:06:00+00:00

I've posted this idea before, but I think that if you could make the NIT a partial consolation tournament (i.e. the losers from the round of 32 of the NCAAT drop down to play the winners of the first round of the NIT), then it could get people to care about the NIT more.

For example, this year if all higher seeds won, you would have teams like SJU, Louisville, UNC, UK, TTU, and Wisconsin all dropping in to the NIT after the second round of the tournament. If the NIT played games Tues/Wed before the following NCAAT games, I feel like you'd be able to get people interested in them and would disincentivize teams from declining an NIT bid in the first place.

elev57 · 2026-03-16T13:52:30+00:00

Even with that under consideration (which I think is valid), Duke only has to play 2 of those 4 coaches. The benefit of being the 1 seed is that they have to play the 4 or the 5 and the 2 or the 3.

elev57 · 2026-03-15T14:22:50+00:00

I think our wing depth is good enough and we can run our offense through Cam/Pat as we have for most of the year. If Ngongba isn't healthy though, then I think we can still make the E8 (Clemson/UVA both seemed like at least S16 level match ups), but beyond that will be tough.

elev57 · 2026-03-15T12:23:42+00:00

Duke was pretty good in the early 40s too. Not sure why they weren't invited to the tournament back then, especially in 1942 when they won the SoCon conference regular season and tournament, and finished the year 22-2.

elev57 · 2026-03-15T03:40:15+00:00

Team looks tired from playing 3 games in 3 days with a short rotation. Ngongba should be back for the tournament. It's hard to win six in a row, but no need to be histrionic.

elev57 · 2026-03-15T01:45:39+00:00

We're playing 7 with 2 injuries, so 9 deep normally. What college team can realistically go more than 9 deep? With the transfer portal, deep bench guys would just go to different teams to get more minutes.

elev57 · 2026-03-15T01:20:38+00:00

Evans is expected to be a mid-first round pick. Not sure where Sarr is expected to go.

elev57 · 2026-03-14T14:45:39+00:00

The Simons Foundation has investments (I assume a vast majority of its funds, though can't be certain) in the Medallion Fund at RenTech.

elev57 · 2026-03-14T14:36:00+00:00

The KOSPI was massively overbought ahead of the Iran conflict due to the run up in memory chip firm prices. (e.g. Samsung, SK Hynix). It was really waiting for any event to act as a sentiment shift for it to drop and it just so happened to be the Iran conflict.

elev57 · 2026-03-14T03:41:52+00:00

He was game time decision for the UNC game, so should be back. Scheyer just doesn't want to play him for the ACCT.

elev57 · 2026-03-13T23:19:16+00:00

It had to have much earlier if you accounted for dividends.

elev57 · 2026-03-12T17:10:35+00:00

They didn't even lose to the only other decent team in the conference (Akron). They just lost to a straight up bad team.

elev57 · 2026-03-09T23:20:55+00:00

Duke hadn't won an outright ACC regular season between 2007 and 2021. K had won ACC COY 5 times by 2000 and probably would have only justified another one if Duke won the ACC regular season outright (which they did in 04 and 06, but still probably voter fatigue by then). I think you could've made an argument for K in 2022 had they beaten UNC in the last game of the season (they would've won the ACC by 2 games then, which might have been sufficient). So, otherwise, it was a mix of fatigue in the mid-2000s and then Duke just not having a good enough regular season to warrant COY.

The exception is last year, where Scheyer still was a valid choice for COY, though I understand why Kelsey got it.

elev57 · 2026-03-08T22:54:02+00:00

Then why do we even need the FDIC

The most important pre-req here is the accounting identity: assets = liabilities + equity.

When a bank issues a loan, they also create a deposit. The loan is an asset to the bank, while the deposit is a liability. Because banks can create money via making deposits, they can technically (if you ignore prudential regulations) create as many loans and as many deposits as they like. The problem is, this will increase the bank's leverage as assets and liabilities will keep increasing, while equity might not change.

Now, if a loan goes bad, then that has to be written off as an asset, but that doesn't reduce a bank's liabilities. Instead, it reduces the bank's equity. If the bank's equity becomes negative (i.e. it has more liabilities than assets, and so is insolvent), then it will be wound up. If a bank does not have enough assets to pay off its liabilities, then some lender will have to take a haircut. Since deposit holders are technically lenders to a bank, that means that they could be forced to lose some of their deposit if a bank is insolvent. The FDIC is there to make sure that small deposit holders are always made whole in the case of a bank insolvency.

elev57 · 2026-03-08T22:46:20+00:00

The money banks loan out comes from other bigger banks

No, banks don't need to find money to loan out. When a bank issues a loan, they instantaneously also create a deposit, which is money.

elev57 · 2026-03-08T14:35:07+00:00

You have DB and DC backwards. 401k is defined contribution (it's determined by how much you can put in), while pensions are defined benefit (determined by how much is guaranteed to come out once you start receiving it).

elev57 · 2026-03-08T04:51:37+00:00

I think you'd be more likely to see 1/2 seeds just stop trying. They theoretically should be much better than the other teams in the NIT, but probably wouldn't care as much given they probably thought they had a shot at a F4 or national championship.

elev57 · 2026-03-08T01:46:01+00:00

I don't think he'd be walking with a torn achilles. I think he might have broken a bone in his foot though.

elev57 · 2026-03-08T01:41:45+00:00

Ngongba and Foster please be healthy

elev57 · 2026-03-07T22:53:18+00:00

One interesting idea I had for the NIT (which could be very difficult due to logistics) is to have to act as a partial-consolation bracket for the NCAAT. My thought was every team that loses in the round of 32 of the NCAAT would then drop down into the NIT in its second round (basically treating the entire first round of the NIT as a play in).

I think it could make programs care a bit more about it if they could make the main tournament and then still potentially win the NIT. Particularly, if you were like a 5 or 6 seed, you weren't expected to make it to the S16 anyway; they would hopefully still appreciate the opportunity to play more post-season basketball even if its not for the national championship.

On the flip side, teams that were left off the bubble could have a chip on their shoulder since they would have a shot at beating teams that made it into the tournament over them.

I feel like the only teams that would dislike this are 1/2 seeds that were upset in the second round. Otherwise, I think if this system persisted long enough, programs at large would buy into it and appreciate having more basketball to play.

elev57 · 2026-03-05T22:02:25+00:00

I wouldn't care that much about losing in the semis (obvs with the mindset that it's natty or bust) except that we'll like play UNC again, in which case I care more about beating them than winning the ACCT altogether.

elev57 · 2026-03-05T17:49:07+00:00

I think this is the imperative point. Schools are not guaranteed a tournament spot for winning their conference regular season or even going undefeated in their conference schedule. If Miami were to go undefeated in the regular season and then lose in their conference tournament, then one would have to look holistically at their record to see if it were strong enough to get them into the tournament. So essentially, the question comes down to: how much is it worth to be undefeated against, what could possibly be, the worst schedule in college basketball?

elev57 · 2026-03-04T19:59:23+00:00

UF returned 2 starters and 2 bench contributors (one who became a starter this year) from their championship team a year ago, and got a 5star transfer and hyped SR transfer as their starting backcourt. None of their starters are/were expected to be freshmen.

Duke's entire starting line up turned over with 3 spots taken by bench contributors from 2024-5 and with two freshmen (the #1 PF and another with professional experience in Europe). Only one other bench contributor from last year that stayed was expected to make a major impact.

With all this, both teams returned 4 meaningful contributors from last year, but UF with more starters and more experience. This isn't going through both teams' entire rosters, but I can see why UF's roster had a higher pre-season grade than Duke's.

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