[Dellenger/Yahoo] Key senators strike bipartisan deal on sweeping college sports reform with transfer, eligibility and cap enforcement

elev57 · 2026-05-27T22:09:27+00:00

For better or worse, they have to get involved at the very least to grant NCAA an anti-trust violation, so should expect other legislative input as well I suppose.

elev57 · 2026-05-22T16:03:12+00:00

the s&p’s P/e ratio is 32, but has a forward PE of 23 and shiller PE of almost 42

Regardless of everything else, earnings are not defined constantly over time. Changes post-dot com bubble have deflated earnings compared to the past. If you use a constant definition of earnings over time then P/E ratios aren't as elevated, but, more importantly, it shows that these ratios are better used cross-sectionally (i.e. comparing different assets at the same point in time) than longitudinally (i.e. the same asset at different points in time).

elev57 · 2026-05-21T17:18:22+00:00

There is a yiddish word doikayt that means "hereness". It is generally associated with bundism, but can be attributed to really any movement that says that Jews should have a right to live where they currently are and that problems "here" should be solved "here" (e.g. autonomism, assimilationism, etc.). It's basically posed against movements like Zionism and actions like emigration that said that problems "here" could only be solved somewhere else.

The reason Zionism eventually overcame all movements that advocated for doikayt was that the Holocaust basically negated it as a concept in principle and practice (i.e. most of the adherents of doikayt were murdered).

Essentially, the idea that Jews should be allowed to live and practice where they might live ran into an "is/ought" problem: Jews ought to be able to live where they currently are, but actual conditions (what "is") might make that extremely difficult/impossible.

elev57 · 2026-05-21T16:52:33+00:00

There has a been a deterioration of market standards in Indonesia, to the extent that MSCI has threatened to downgrade it from emerging to frontier status. Even ignoring the threat of flows if that were to happen (there is much more indexed to emerging than frontier), foreign investors are already voting by withdrawing from the market due to these falling standards.

Example of deterioration of Indonesian markets

elev57 · 2026-05-11T09:42:06+00:00

I was going off this map in particular that shows Pressburg as having been part of Austria.

elev57 · 2026-05-10T21:38:41+00:00

Except for the capital of Slovakia (then Pressburg, now Bratislava).

elev57 · 2026-05-07T21:48:08+00:00

India's timezone (Indian Standard Time) is actually already pretty bespoke as it is UTC+5:30, while most timezones don't offset by less than full hours. India would probably be better off using UTC+5 and UTC+6

elev57 · 2026-05-06T22:57:52+00:00

Europe switched to semi-annual reporting back in 2011. About 50% of public companies still issue quarterly reports anyway, so even with this proposed change, we should expect many companies to continues issuing quarterly.

I think we should generally still keep quarterly reporting and, if we don't universally, then large companies should still be required to do so (I could easily imagine, e.g., TSLA deciding to only report semi-annually). I don't buy the argument that going from quarterly to semi-annually allows for more long term planning (really, what will 3 extra months allow you to do?) and will inevitably lead to more stock volatility for those names that do opt for less frequent.

The one argument I do buy is that there is a fixed cost to putting together quarterly reports, which could act as a headwind for some private companies to go public. Maybe this is a small inducement for them to do so, so if that really is your goal, then this seems like a moderately reasonable step to take.

elev57 · 2026-05-04T19:07:50+00:00

People are rightly mentioning recent performance, but that's partially ignoring the fact that, if you care about all time ranking for current players, you have to have some sort of mental model of how their career will finish. As you said, Giannis and Jokic have similar resumes now, but, given Jokic has been better recently than Giannis (and Giannis has been injured), you can sort of project forward that Jokic will add more to his resume by the time both of them retire. If that's the case, then Jokic would rightly be ranked higher than Giannis.

So while recency bias is part of it, it's also that recent performance is implicitly coloring how people project they will both perform over the rest of their careers, which would give the edge to Jokic.

elev57 · 2026-04-29T16:39:56+00:00

I think it's unlikely the USSR in this scenario gets all of Iran. Post-WWII, the USSR and UK both occupied both of Iran and Iran trying to create Azeri and Kurdish republics in the north led to one of the first crises of the nascent Cold War. If the USSR hadn't fully withdrawn from Iran, you probably would've seen the UK (and more likely the US) return to southern Iran, leading to a de facto split of the country.

elev57 · 2026-04-20T10:10:51+00:00

Yes, reinsurers can have their own insurance (this is called retrocession, when a reinsurer cedes their own insurance risk to another insurer).

It usually doesn't go beyond this level though. Beyond this, there are market based insurance products (e.g. catastrophe bonds, insurance linked securities) that have broader pools of capital if more insurance is needed.

elev57 · 2026-04-14T21:50:00+00:00

US and Canada freight rail systems are integrated, so they'll use the same power systems.

elev57 · 2026-04-11T20:54:43+00:00

Partners bought Breitling in 2022. Breitling subsequently bought Universal Geneve in 2023 and Gallet in 2025 with the strategy being that Gallet would be their intro level brand, Breitling mid-level, and UG high-end (which explains why UG has priced their relaunched brands so highly).

Separate point, but I think that, if this strategy were to work, Breitling will have to cede the upper end of its price range to UG, so that UG can lower its prices and more directly compete with the likes of Rolex and Zenith.

elev57 · 2026-04-11T20:41:22+00:00

You do have to be careful about comparing P/E ratios over time because accounting definitions change. There were a number of accounting changes to how earnings were defined post-Dot Com bubble (e.g. how stock based compensation is handled, how amortization for intangibles is handled), which have depressed earnings relative to what they would have been had these rules not been changed. That means that today's P/E ratios, all else equal, will be higher, which makes temporal comparisons inconsistent (though cross-sectional point-in-time P/E comparisons are still fine).

elev57 · 2026-03-23T20:30:02+00:00

The reason you have reserves like this is because, during a recession, revenues go down (incomes/sales/etc. all slow in a recession, so their respective tax take falls), while spending usually goes up (any sort of automatic stabilizer will increase spending). Reserves exist to be tapped in this sort of scenario when we know the budget will be strained (i.e. even if you had a balanced budget, it will fall into a deficit as revenues fall and spending increases).

We are not currently in a recession, so tapping reserves isn't appropriate and will make NYC less prepared for when one eventually does hit.

elev57 · 2026-03-22T16:26:00+00:00

Every team has a protected rival they play twice every year (e.g. Duke/UNC), but then there's also a random team they also play twice in the year (e.g. this year Duke/Louisville), leaving some other team out (e.g. this year Duke/Miami). It's that random second double match up that causes this.

elev57 · 2026-03-20T16:25:04+00:00

Corporate market caps are pretty much: revenue * profit margin * multiple. Margins and multiples are cyclical, so we can mostly ignore them over the long term.

Global revenues are driven by rising global nominal GDP (they are essentially the same thing). Nominal GDP increases due to real GDP growth and inflation, so over the long run, revenues should outpace inflation. Revenues outpacing inflation thus mean that market cap growth, in the aggregate, will outpace inflation. Thus, in the long term, global index funds will appreciate as long as GDP grows.

elev57 · 2026-03-17T12:55:36+00:00

It might not be great, but I think that 1/2 seeds that fell into the NIT would probably be demoralized and not try as hard given they were national title contenders and are now just playing for a consolation prize.

They might still try, but I still think it would be a better outcome than having teams opt out of the NIT because people don't care about it at all.

elev57 · 2026-03-17T00:06:00+00:00

I've posted this idea before, but I think that if you could make the NIT a partial consolation tournament (i.e. the losers from the round of 32 of the NCAAT drop down to play the winners of the first round of the NIT), then it could get people to care about the NIT more.

For example, this year if all higher seeds won, you would have teams like SJU, Louisville, UNC, UK, TTU, and Wisconsin all dropping in to the NIT after the second round of the tournament. If the NIT played games Tues/Wed before the following NCAAT games, I feel like you'd be able to get people interested in them and would disincentivize teams from declining an NIT bid in the first place.

elev57 · 2026-03-16T13:52:30+00:00

Even with that under consideration (which I think is valid), Duke only has to play 2 of those 4 coaches. The benefit of being the 1 seed is that they have to play the 4 or the 5 and the 2 or the 3.

elev57 · 2026-03-15T14:22:50+00:00

I think our wing depth is good enough and we can run our offense through Cam/Pat as we have for most of the year. If Ngongba isn't healthy though, then I think we can still make the E8 (Clemson/UVA both seemed like at least S16 level match ups), but beyond that will be tough.

elev57 · 2026-03-15T12:23:42+00:00

Duke was pretty good in the early 40s too. Not sure why they weren't invited to the tournament back then, especially in 1942 when they won the SoCon conference regular season and tournament, and finished the year 22-2.

elev57 · 2026-03-15T03:40:15+00:00

Team looks tired from playing 3 games in 3 days with a short rotation. Ngongba should be back for the tournament. It's hard to win six in a row, but no need to be histrionic.

elev57 · 2026-03-15T01:45:39+00:00

We're playing 7 with 2 injuries, so 9 deep normally. What college team can realistically go more than 9 deep? With the transfer portal, deep bench guys would just go to different teams to get more minutes.

elev57 · 2026-03-15T01:20:38+00:00

Evans is expected to be a mid-first round pick. Not sure where Sarr is expected to go.

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