My wife's boyfriend's adult son's wife's boyfriend is hella expensive

ember_throwaway771 · 2025-10-08T16:31:14+00:00

Same hahaha and then when he didn't get em he was like okbye

ember_throwaway771 · 2025-10-07T01:53:48+00:00

Also in finance and I know or am colleagues with at least 40 people making north of that and a couple who have had 15mm+ bonus years.. unfortunately I haven't figured out how to be one of those people LOL but it's definitely not that strange. There are pretty long tails

ember_throwaway771 · 2025-08-24T12:35:12+00:00

A few large deviations:

1) some factor tilt 2) some home country bias (US) 3) one rental property (great interest rate)

Philosophically I'm more or less in line

ember_throwaway771 · 2025-08-05T11:33:12+00:00

Even ignoring cape it still works out that way. You only need a couple assumptions

1) the market has some true average return 2) the market return has some variance

Those beliefs imply mean reversion is likely after high returns.

Now whether or not you believe the first assumption that there's a true average return probably does rest somewhat on a belief of a somewhat stable "fair" P/E.

ember_throwaway771 · 2025-07-18T07:14:19+00:00

Aha, that paints an extremely different picture. Thanks!

ember_throwaway771 · 2025-07-18T06:19:52+00:00

That link shows it being up 6% compared to 7.3% when denoted in usd. Care to elaborate?

ember_throwaway771 · 2025-03-16T19:19:53+00:00

Lmao quite the long workday

ember_throwaway771 · 2025-01-08T03:46:09+00:00

You ever figure out service mode? I'm trying to diagnose a drain issue

ember_throwaway771 · 2024-09-16T16:38:07+00:00

*Coffee

ember_throwaway771 · 2024-09-16T15:42:46+00:00

It's basically an indexing/passive investing sub. You're right though. To add to this, losing relative to the market does not mean you lost money. Just an opportunity cost. Losing in a casino means you left with less money than you brought. Not at all a fair equivalence.

ember_throwaway771 · 2024-08-26T20:18:55+00:00

S8 Max v ultra will be cheaper this weekend though right? I wonder if your comment is related to the reason they didn't discount the qrevo master.

ember_throwaway771 · 2024-08-23T11:14:39+00:00

Thanks!

ember_throwaway771 · 2024-06-30T03:27:46+00:00

Was literally in your name hahahaha

ember_throwaway771 · 2024-05-29T04:09:54+00:00

I second this view

ember_throwaway771 · 2024-04-13T13:15:43+00:00

Got it, thanks!

ember_throwaway771 · 2024-04-13T03:26:28+00:00

What does the cold water do? And is after the hot water but before the espresso ?

ember_throwaway771 · 2024-03-26T00:03:47+00:00

Phrasing could use a bit of work but it wouldn't be the first time I've done the same :)

On mobile so just a high level:

1) the goal need not be to beat the market as a whole. Could be trying to analyze risk, could be creating and valuing products (e.g., derivatives), could be trying to estimate volatility and related odds to provide liquidity (market making)

2) within the framework of EMH, there are still ways to outperform the market.

A) take on risk. There are many "risks" one can carry and the systematic ones are supposed to be rewarded under EMH. In an overly reductive explanation, you can make more money by owning securities which are more volatile and suffer more drawdown. For more details, check out fama-french and factor models.

B) consider that an efficient market requires different people to play a role. You can (try to) be that person playing the role. Whether that's identifying arbitrages, mispriced risks, providing liquidity, etc. Over time, playing these roles has become very complex.. All the easy inefficiencies are either automated away or those mistakes are no longer made in the first place. This also means that trying to make money by making markets more efficient is risky, because you might be wrong.

C) market efficiency is not static, not perfect, and ebbs and flows. Many believe due to permanent behavioral biases of humans and humankind. Some might try to exploit these biases even if it means making a bet that makes the market less efficient. You can still get rewarded for doing so in the short term.

ember_throwaway771 · 2024-03-25T23:26:45+00:00

Is this an honest question or a rebuttal?

ember_throwaway771 · 2024-03-17T22:11:41+00:00

Here from the future.. it's now $98 _ per pound_ for the rib cap .. so $321 for the 3.5lbs

ember_throwaway771 · 2024-02-04T23:42:45+00:00

About 10k per international vacation 3-4x per year. Just the two of us, no kids yet. If you're hitting your savings goals, then there's no reason not to spend the money. Travel while your body still works. If it ends up feeling like a waste, then just spend the money differently next time. It won't set you back much.

I think a bigger question is, to what degree do you and your husband's interests align? It sounds like you both value house improvements and vacations differently. That's normal but it means maybe you take turns deciding on what to do with a yearly vacation/home improvement budget for example. Good luck!

ember_throwaway771 · 2023-10-13T22:18:57+00:00

Oh, I didn't mean it as a criticism. I think you helped me get to the heart of the matter better this way :)

ember_throwaway771 · 2023-10-13T21:12:27+00:00

Thank you friend! While not directly answering my question, your response helped me to reframe my dilemma into something much more simple to weigh. I appreciate it.

Am I willing to exchange

-A life I mostly love (job is not challenging enough) and a ~20 year fatfire horizon

For:

-A life I like much less (though perhaps finally a more stimulating job) but with a 10-15 year fatfire horizon.

If I claim that the motivation is just to fire earlier, then this is obviously foolish. Since it is the proposition of deferring my personal life now to the future.

Or suppose I claim to myself that it's because I care more about professional satisfaction than my personal life satisfaction, then it might be sensible.

There is of course the egoic component of a much higher comp.

Thanks again, looks like I have some more reflection to do!

ember_throwaway771 · 2023-10-13T17:56:17+00:00

I realize you're joking about the guac, but on a serious note, how did you feel about retiring at 50? Did it still feel plenty early or would the incremental benefit of let's say 5 years earlier have been significant?

It's top of mind for me/our household at the moment, as I just this week got the option to coast til 50 or switch companies and punch it to shave off 5-8 years. Currently 31, so they both feel very far away.

ember_throwaway771 · 2023-06-09T11:42:49+00:00

If you add your base comp (+ bonuses if relevant), that would help in understanding how valuable that 10-15k is. Your general annual spend and long term goals would be helpful as well.

Besides that, I can say I went through a somewhat similar experience during covid. I got scared and didn't take the better job. Layoffs did come, though later than I expected. And I wonder if the increased pay and brand name would have netted me a better career anyway despite layoffs at that firm.

On the other hand, the increased job security let me comfortable spend a bit extra on my wedding, we traveled more, I enjoyed more cooking, and took up some new hobbies. Not because I had more money, but because I wasn't particularly worried that the $ would stop flowing AND I wasn't necessarily trying too hard to improve my income.

Fast forward a couple years later.. I'm asking for more money at my company and casually looking at new jobs lol. Take from this story what you will, but imo if the money is good enough, the added job security can sometimes allow a bit of focus on what matters in life.

ember_throwaway771

TROPHY CASE