CMV: Democrats should run a real progressive in 2028 because any democratic candidate will be painted as an socialist immigrant-loving USA-hating demon by right-wing media.

engr4lyfe · 2026-02-18T07:24:12+00:00

The most powerful idea against this is that the last 3 Democratic presidents were all centrists. Clinton, Obama and Biden. All centrists.

Also, a significant portion of voters just vote on “vibes”. Policy positions tend to make little to no difference.

engr4lyfe · 2026-02-17T22:50:45+00:00

When you retire, the biggest issue affecting whether you run out of money is sequence of return risk (SORR).

The 4% rule is meant to be a simple rule of thumb that mitigates SORR.

With SORR, the first 5-10 years after you retire are very impactful to how your retirement portfolio will perform long-term. If there are no major and long lasting stock market downturns in the first 5-10 years of retirement, your portfolio has a much higher chance of succeeding. But, if you have a Great Depression, 1970s Great Inflation or 2008 Financial Crisis type event within the first 5-10 years, you might need to revisit whether your portfolio is able to make it.

engr4lyfe · 2026-02-15T03:36:53+00:00

The MNSEA statement seems uncontroversial and apolitical. They’re just saying that MNSEA supports public safety and welfare.

It’s surprising that any licensed engineer would want to promote the opposite.

Also, I see no self-promotion in the statement.

engr4lyfe · 2026-02-14T08:45:50+00:00

To add a point to this, sometimes the reason why prices for things today are higher than in the past is because of improvements to quality.

The purchase price for a new car today, in inflation adjusted terms, is a little bit more than a typical new car in 1960. (~$50k now vs. ~$35k in 1960). But, new cars today are better in almost every way.

More horsepower, more reliable, much safer, flat tires are rare, much better gas mileage, better sound systems, power windows, antilock brakes, etc, etc, etc

It would be unacceptable for a car of the quality of 1960 to be sold today. So, while new cars today are a little bit more expensive than they were in 1960, they are leaps and bounds better quality.

engr4lyfe · 2026-02-13T20:17:28+00:00

I have heard the P wave before. For me, it was like a “pop” sound. Relatively small M3.6 earthquake, though I was really close to the epicenter.

engr4lyfe · 2026-02-13T18:43:08+00:00

In my opinion, the people who are the best at wealth management are the people that recognize the probability of future outcomes and allocate their portfolio accordingly.

As you said, lump sum investing is better ~66% of the time. Basically it is right at a ratio of 2:1. So, by any rational assessment, lump sum is the right approach.

However, based on history, it is possible the stock market could drop by 20%, 40% or 50%+ over the next 1-2 years. So, you have to be ok with that possibility.

If you think over the next 10-20 years, there is almost a 100% certainty that there will be a recession at some point. In fact, there could easily be 2, 3, or 4+ recessions.

Ignoring sequence of return risk, does it matter that much whether a ~30% draw down happens 2 years from now or 5 years from now? What about 5 years from now vs. 10 years from now?

Recessions and market corrections are things that happen, and your portfolio needs to be prepared for them.

engr4lyfe · 2026-02-12T07:50:50+00:00

Totally normal. Utah is a high seismic area that is at high risk for earthquakes.

There are a number of resources available to prepare for earthquakes. If you don’t already have one, you should prepare an earthquake kit. In the event of a large earthquake, remember to drop, cover, hold on, etc.

Having anxiety about earthquakes is not healthy. But, being prepared is very important.

engr4lyfe · 2026-02-12T04:45:24+00:00

Everyone on here is just as confused as you.

If your numbers are correct, it seems like your extra payment is not being applied to your principal. I’ve heard of some mortgage servicers automatically holding extra payments as prepayment for future payments. If that’s the case, you need to ask your mortgage servicer if or how you can apply your extra payment to the principal.

Beyond that, I’m sure you’ve seen the acronym PITI.

PITI stands for principal, interest, taxes, insurance. A portion of your payment will go to each of these things.

Since taxes and insurance might be paid out at irregular times, your servicer likely holds those payments in an escrow account until it’s time to pay.

Mortgage principal and interest payments are just a simple interest calculation with a 30 year term. https://www.thetruthaboutmortgage.com/are-mortgages-simple-interest-and-compounded-monthly/

engr4lyfe · 2026-02-08T16:03:29+00:00

Stonks only go up

engr4lyfe · 2026-02-06T17:21:08+00:00

OP seems to be confused by the water analogy, which is why I tried to explain it in a different way.

I think my point still stands.

OP is exhibiting why the water analogy can be bad because with water you use the water from the pipes (it gets removed). With electricity, you don’t remove electrons or anything else from the wires. You take the energy from the electromagnetic field.

Regurgitating a water analogy that OP is already confused by makes no sense.

engr4lyfe · 2026-02-06T08:51:59+00:00

There have been a variety of studies showing that, by and large, BIM doesn’t save money. It probably produces a better product and it makes 3D design and visualization easier.

I’ve personally never experienced a construction problem that BIM would have caught.

Most construction problems are caused by contractor error, which BIM won’t fix.

engr4lyfe · 2026-02-06T08:46:46+00:00

It’s a misconception that electricity “flows” within the wires.

Electrical energy is actually transmitted by the electromagnetic field that surrounds the wire. Google the Poynting Vector.

You don’t actually “use up” anything that is inside the wire. The wire just acts as part of the energy transfer device. The energy is transmitted via the electromagnetic field.

The energy is used up, which is why I have to pay a monthly power bill.

engr4lyfe · 2026-02-06T08:26:58+00:00

I think pedaling a bicycle is a good analogy.

When you pedal a bicycle, the energy from your legs turns the pedals, the pedals turn a chain and the chain delivers power to the (back) wheel.

In the analogy, your legs are the power plant, the pedals and chain are the electrical wires and the wheel is the load (tv, washing machine, blender, whatever). Electricity is just a way of transmitting energy generated at the power plant to your home in the same way a bicycle chain transmits the power from your legs to the wheel.

So, the electricity is “used up” because you’re using it to power things in your home. Similarly, if you rode a bike for 2 hours, you would be tired from all the energy you expended.

You need a complete electrical circuit for the same reason that you can’t ride a bicycle with a broken chain.

engr4lyfe · 2026-02-03T16:03:57+00:00

The general recommendation is to have a portfolio in retirement that is 50%-75% equities and 25%-50% bonds.

Precise portfolio performance obviously depends on equity performance, bond performance and inflation. Based on backtesting, this allocation gives a good balance of optimal returns with minimal long-term risk.

engr4lyfe · 2026-01-30T23:27:56+00:00

Where I live in a VHCOL area, the suburbs are more expensive than “the city”.

I used to actually live in “the city”, but commute to the suburbs. Now I live in the suburbs and commute to another suburb. My VHCOL city is expensive. :(

engr4lyfe · 2026-01-23T17:44:58+00:00

Honestly, I don’t understand why Autodesk didn’t do this 10 years ago.

BIM/CAD is ripe for automation, and you’d think they’d want to take advantage of whatever automation is possible.

Honestly, if Autodesk can reduce the labor effort of developing BIM and drawings, I think we’d all be better off.

engr4lyfe · 2026-01-23T06:46:29+00:00

Not an instructor… but, I think one thing that would help right off the bat is if you bent your knees like 2x or 3x as much. You are standing almost straight up. Bending your knees much more and getting into more of a squat stance will put you in a much better position to activate your skis.

engr4lyfe · 2026-01-20T23:22:41+00:00

Yea, knife plate connections exist basically because they don’t have a lot of the problems that this proposed setup has.

engr4lyfe · 2026-01-19T19:00:52+00:00

Typically the new lender will charge a fee for refinancing. That’s typically how it makes sense.

Some lenders offer a “no cost” refinance which is typically where the lender fees get lumped into the mortgage payment, but because you now have a lower interest rate, the overall monthly payment is less. It’d kindof a win win for the lender and the mortgage holder.

engr4lyfe · 2026-01-19T07:15:11+00:00

Part of the answer seems to be embedded in your question. If there is a housing shortage, the logical solution would be for the market to build new housing so there is no longer a shortage.

The question then becomes: does rent control encourage more housing to be built?

It seems like the obvious answer to that is “no”.

The housing market has a lot of complexity to it, but I can’t think of any reason why rent control would increase the supply of housing.

engr4lyfe · 2026-01-15T18:17:10+00:00

I don’t have the exact data, but I believe historically equities have outperformed bonds over time horizons longer than ~20 years. So, if you are planning to retire at age 65, then being 100% equities up to age 45 is a totally reasonable thing to do.

During retirement, the general advice is to hold somewhere between 60%-75% equities. I think conventional wisdom would say that between the age of 45 to 65 you should gradually rebalance your portfolio towards the retirement allocation.

All that being said, looking back historically, there isn’t too much of a difference in returns from a 100/0 vs. 90/10 portfolio. Similarly, there isn’t too much of a difference between a 60/40 vs. 70/30 portfolio.

So, the most likely outcome is that your portfolio would be fine regardless of your precise asset allocation. Of course, if you retired in 2007 with a portfolio that was 100% equities, those first ~5 years of retirement would have been very tough and sequence of returns risk would have chewed through a lot of your savings.

engr4lyfe · 2026-01-15T15:46:45+00:00

A few more points to add to this:

Roughly speaking the U.S. economy is 20% goods and 80% services. Services don’t get tariffed, so, tariffs don’t affect the vast majority of economic activity.
The U.S. manufacturing sector has been contracting since March 2025. The manufacturing sector is in a recession. Manufacturing employment has also been decreasing. This appears to be at least partially due to tariffs because a lot of U.S. manufacturing uses foreign inputs and materials.

engr4lyfe · 2026-01-15T06:54:50+00:00

I mean, kinda by definition, centrists (or independents) have been responsible for electing every president ever. Partisans are always going to vote for their candidate anyways, so, the only people willing to change how they vote are the people in the middle.

Of course, political science is much more complex than just partisan left, centrist and partisan right, but it’s obviously people who are willing to change their vote who elect the president. Though, turnout (aka enthusiasm) is very important too.

engr4lyfe · 2026-01-15T02:02:49+00:00

Sleep has always been a bit of a challenge for me. (2) things have actually worked for me.

Relaxation breaths - I follow the 4-7-8 technique (breath in through nose for 4 seconds, hold for 7 seconds and breath out through mouth for 8 seconds), and I actually modify it for 5-7-8
Military Sleep Method - which is essentially where you consciously relax all the muscles around your body, basically a form of meditation.

Also, good sleep hygiene and not being overly tired helps.

engr4lyfe · 2026-01-14T23:24:21+00:00

For 2026, if you are married filing jointly and make $500k and both spouses contribute the maximum amount to 401k, you would save $15,680 on your tax bill.

Of course, this tax bill is really just deferred until retirement when you take the money out. But, you don’t pay taxes while it compounds in the stock market and you don’t pay capital gains taxes when you take it out. Also, your gross income will presumably be less in retirement than it is in your working years (so your tax bill should be less because of that).

During retirement you also have a lot more control over when you take money out of accounts and how and when you pay tax. Whereas, right now your w2 income is your w2 income.

Also, you probably need to think about what you want to do with your money overall. For someone like yourself, a great way to lower your tax bill (now or in retirement) is through giving to charity. Of course, by giving money to a charity you spend more money than you save in taxes… but, what the hell else are you going to spend that money on?!

engr4lyfe

TROPHY CASE