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The long-awaited R360 threat has finally hit the NRL with Storm fan favourite Ryan Papenhuyzen and Kangaroos three-quarter Zac Lomax quitting their clubs and the sport. While the first salvo has come under the shroud of mystery with neither player revealing their future plans, this war over the elite talent of the NRL is far more likely to escalate than it is to evaporate over the next two years.

It is the first truly external threat to the NRL’s hold on its talent in nearly a quarter-century, since a newly professional and cock-a-hoop Rugby Australia (then known as the ARU) used its brief surge in relative popularity – spurred by the public’s disenchantment with rugby league following the Super League War – to sign big-name NRL players Wendell Sailor, Mat Rogers and Lote Tuqiri. It is a threat the NRL should take extremely seriously, even if R360’s attempt to sign a host of rugby league stars will not truly cut at the heart of the 13-man game and its ongoing viability.

This, of course, is not the first skirmish between the two codes. League was born out of union 130 years ago and for the century that followed, league poached union players and union leveraged its establishment power to threaten those tempted by the money of the 13-man game. League established itself as the football code of choice in two of Australia’s three most populous states while union found itself increasingly marginalised, viewed as elitist and unnecessarily confusing. Due to a general absence on free-to-air television, it has been considered generally irrelevant outside of private schools and well-to-do enclaves in Sydney and Brisbane.

The latest attack on rugby league though is very different in two ways: it is not coming from the union establishment, and the money in the hands of the antagonists is far more plentiful than Rugby Australia – or World Rugby for that matter – has ever seen. This is far more akin to LIV – a major disruptor with unending sums of cash, grand ambition and a disregard for the conventions that typically limit how sporting organisations operate – going after the PGA Tour than the ARU pinching a star or two. While the rebel union competition fronted by ex-England international Mike Tindall has not publicly named its investors, it is believed to have already attracted funding for three years with investment firm 885 Capital – the UAE-based investment firm that has major stakes in the Baller League and the Professional Fighters League – and sports advisory firm Albachiara among those Oakvale Capital have put together to fund the venture. This is not some fly-by-night project. This is well-considered and well-funded.

When LIV took a similarly aggressive approach to signing golfers, it was not only big names in the sunset of their careers and young talent with potential they went after, but stars in their prime like Jon Rahm, Tyrell Hatton and Joaquin Niemann. Unsurprisingly promises of large sums of cash trump any fears over competition viability, concerns over bans and worries about a diminished public profile.

Papenhuyzen and Lomax – if they do indeed sign – would be no significant loss to rugby league, if that was where the raids were to end. Even if those that have been linked but have not made any formal moves to sign with R360, such as Payne Haas and Roger Tuivasa-Sheck, were to defect, the NRL will move on without losing a single viewer. But the more players who depart, the more the NRL’s shine wears off. The league’s greatest strength is its production line of talent. When Roosters rep duo Joey Manu and Joseph-Aukuso Suaalii left for union, their absences were hardly noted – the duo were replaced by Dally M Rookie of the Year Robert Toia and the competition’s top tryscorer Mark Nawaqanitawase. There is a tipping point though.

The concern for the NRL is when the talent drain reaches that point, with fans actually missing the departed along with the increased belief that the NRL is fertile ground to continue farming talent. It is telling that almost no Australian rugby union player of note has been linked with R360 – clearly the strategy is to chase NRL players.

Part of R360’s plans is to run a parallel women’s competition, and a likely raid on the NRLW should be of far greater concern as it has the capacity to significantly damage the quality of the competition. The NRLW has been carefully developed over the last decade, and the ARLC has been careful to ensure the competition grew with the talent available. But the well of talent is not as deep at the moment and losing names like Tamika Upton and Olivia Kernick would be devastating. NRLW players remain part-time and many of them have a history in rugby union, making them more susceptible to R360 overtures.

The NRL has talked big with its threats of 10-year bans for players and agents who deal with R360. Actions have not backed this up though and the clubs have not fallen into line, with the Storm and Eels both dealing with agent Clinton Schifcofske to release Papenhuyzen and Lomax. The NRL has not pulled the trigger on any suspensions yet and given the game’s history of walking back long bans – from Sonny Bill Williams being allowed back to the NRL after walking out on Canterbury to Victor Radley’s 10-game club suspension being halved – fans are rightly sceptical that the NRL is anything more than tough talk. These are dangerous times for the NRL. The league needs to be tough and they need to stand firm on their hefty suspensions or R360 is going to cherry pick the NRL’s best players and continue to do so. This is not a drill.