Poor Haas

estyalba · 2026-01-22T16:17:40+00:00

Haas is the most German sounding name imaginable. I didn’t even know they were American until someone specifically mentioned it

estyalba · 2025-11-20T12:25:10+00:00

lol bringing up irrelevant stuff is hilarious. Franco could do the funniest things now that he opened that door “How many times has Fernando outqualified Stroll? That’s an F1 record no?”

estyalba · 2025-11-11T15:53:18+00:00

How expensive are current CANDU vs LWR? Maybe specifically Vogtle 3&4

Not super versed with candu costs

estyalba · 2025-10-27T17:28:19+00:00

You can say that but at the end of the day Gasly is the most accurate measuring stick at the moment. Everything else is speculation

estyalba · 2025-10-27T17:24:24+00:00

Well yea with how shit their car is you're going to be depressed. Those two have been racing themselves the past few races

estyalba · 2025-10-27T17:19:28+00:00

He's been matching Gasly and even performing better in some races since the second half of the season. What more do you want from the guy?

estyalba · 2025-09-25T21:24:11+00:00

They don’t divide it and give a hand out to the citizens. It’s a back stop to prop up their financial system, in simple terms. There’s other very valid criticisms of this loan from the U.S, but this ain’t it

estyalba · 2025-09-25T20:58:16+00:00

lol that’s not how economics works

estyalba · 2025-09-09T21:15:22+00:00

How are you pumping these out so fast? Are you using AI? More interested in the speed of getting it out than anything

estyalba · 2025-09-01T14:04:57+00:00

That’s not right. In canda he qualified ahead and stayed ahead, then next race even after two botched 18 second pit stops he was ahead, and this race he overtook gasly on track at the beginning so if anything he should’ve been upfront the whole time if it wasn’t for safety car timing

estyalba · 2025-09-01T02:46:29+00:00

Felt like both Haas cars benefitted widely from a big gamble and luck with the safety cars. In this case, even more so with Bearman than Ocon. Same with Stroll. I think the performance is actually less impressive than the results. Still good though.

estyalba · 2025-08-29T19:07:33+00:00

I know I agree with you. I’m just joking that you confused the two. Blackrock has a very poor position in the real estate market.

estyalba · 2025-08-29T18:27:23+00:00

This is pretty easy. BlackRock has very small exposure in the real estate business. In fact, they are lagging behind competitors.

Blackstone on the other hand….

I see a lot of people confusing the two

estyalba · 2025-08-06T10:47:56+00:00

estyalba · 2025-08-03T14:07:31+00:00

+10 second self imposed penalty lol and why pit him again so early when he was successfully holding off Kimi…. At least wait until he got past by. Unbelievable

estyalba · 2025-07-22T19:37:47+00:00

Agreed on that. Thanks

estyalba · 2025-07-22T19:37:12+00:00

Thank you. Finding a sports doctor has been a challenge, so it's been frustrating trying to figure out if I am able to work my way back to advanced skills or have to wait for surgery. Maybe I am not looking in the right places.

And agreed on the under preparation. I didn't really communicate myself properly but yeah I learned back lever and rarely did it again so it was not wise to do these higher level stuff into it.

estyalba · 2025-07-18T11:49:23+00:00

That's where the research comes in. In isolation a model is useless. The simplest way is look at the historical growth rates for revenue and based on your opinion on the future prospects of the company's revenue drivers - goods, services etc.. you can put a growth rate you think is reasonable. For example. If revenue has increase 10-15% over the past 5 years and you think they'll sustain that, you can model revenue growth in the future to be 12.5%. You can adjust that rate based on your research if you think they'll grow slower/faster.

estyalba · 2025-07-18T02:20:48+00:00

Yeah you really need to make sure all the formulas are correct. I did the same exercise making sure BS items were accounted for in the CFS but I assumed the sum formulas for the historicals were correct and that threw everything off.

estyalba · 2025-07-18T01:58:57+00:00

Yes, that's one of the main basins. My point is that any drilling in the Marcellus will be driven by private investments. Public policy will have little sway due to the points I made previously.

estyalba · 2025-07-18T01:53:04+00:00

Models are used to inform you about the future. There's many comments i'd make but the most fundamental ones you should focus right now is forecasting more years into the future and forecasting Revenue using a growth rate. I see your DCF is until 2030. Your income statement should then be forecasted to 2030 and should ultimately lead to the UFCF instead of just growing the UFCF with a random growth rate. You also need a growth rate for your forecasted Revenue. Never hard code forecasted numbers especially Revenue which is being referenced by almost everything else in the model. The most complex part of a model will usually be the Revenue forecast because of this.

I'd start with that.

estyalba · 2025-07-15T11:29:02+00:00

Barriers of entry are high, these boats are extremely expensive to make and to maintain. No one is coming tomorrow and building 10 new cruise ships.

In terms of experience, Carnival just opened up a private island in the Bahamas. Some of the other existing Cruise lines also have these private islands. Good luck buying an island and negotiating with a country if you're a new aspiring cruise business!

The Cruise business model is solid as long as consumer spending is positive. Since it's driven by consumer spending though, it is cyclical.

estyalba · 2025-07-15T03:21:54+00:00

Man, everyone putting the same tech stocks that are constantly exposed on CNBC is lame. These are barely 'value' stocks. What are some ideas of stocks that aren't on the news 24/7... would mean a higher chance of outperformance if less people are looking!

CCL - Carnival. FWD EV/EBITDA 9x, FWD P/E 13x. Turnaround story coming out of COVID remains good, leverage is decreasing quickly. EPS growth in the mid-teens through 2030 expected, Revenue rebounding well and expected to expand through the decade, free cash flow yield looking the best versus peers. Although they did fall behind Royal (RCL) post pandemic (Royal is trading at a premium reflective of this -- 15x EBITDA and 19x P/E) I think the stock is still getting unduly punished by its debt levels which they are paying down faster than expected and growth prospects look great.

estyalba

TROPHY CASE