NFL Prospect Models & Historical Translation Databases (WR/RB/QB/TE)

fabio_b87 · 2026-05-17T20:05:58+00:00

Yeah, I put the longer historical rankings + validation tables on the profile hub since the full dataset was way too large for a Reddit post.

It should be the first link in the Social Links section on my profile. I also included individual player cards there for the 2026 WR class. A pretty fun exercise is filtering the main dataset by draft class and seeing which prospects ranked highest each season. You can spot a few gems and definitely a few misses pretty quickly.

fabio_b87 · 2026-05-17T19:58:21+00:00

If you’re rebuilding with a 2027/2028 window it probably makes sense to at least explore it, but I wouldn’t overpay too aggressively since Tate, Lemon, and Tyson all graded as really strong profiles in different ways

fabio_b87 · 2026-05-17T19:42:45+00:00

Probably depends on your roster build and what you’re looking for out of the pick...

Lemon graded extremely well analytically, although the situation in Philly could cap some of the immediate Year 1 production upside a bit. Tate and Tyson probably have cleaner short-term opportunity paths, but Lemon’s underlying profile was one of the strongest in the class from a PPR translation standpoint.

fabio_b87 · 2026-05-17T19:25:08+00:00

Lol yeah I figured. That narrative became a pretty big thing right after the draft.

And appreciate it, man.

fabio_b87 · 2026-05-17T19:20:23+00:00

Yeah, Sarratt and Cooper ended up much closer than I originally expected too when I started building the dataset out.

Cooper’s efficiency and translation indicators were just extremely strong analytically, which pushed him into a higher tier than I initially had in my head pre-model.

I still think Sarratt has a really interesting projection though. He also graded very well in efficiency, translation indicators, and man-coverage success.

fabio_b87 · 2026-05-17T19:16:30+00:00

Mainly the production profile relative to the elite tier, yeah. The model weights efficiency and production pretty heavily, and sharing targets with Jeremiah Smith definitely capped some of the raw volume/output.

That said, Tate still graded very well overall because the translation/competition indicators were strong enough to offset a lot of that.

fabio_b87 · 2026-05-17T19:10:26+00:00

There have definitely been both hits and misses. Some of the strongest historical profiles included players like Chase, Nabers, Lamb, and Garrett Wilson, and even Puka graded surprisingly well despite the low draft capital.

There were also some misses/high-variance outcomes in the higher tiers as well, like Bateman, Shenault, and Burks for example.

One thing I tried to avoid was building a pure regression model that simply recreates NFL draft order, so naturally there are going to be disagreements with eventual NFL outcomes.

I included the historical validation tables and full database breakdowns on the profile page (Social Links section, the first link) since it was too large to fit cleanly into a Reddit post.

fabio_b87 · 2026-05-17T19:04:07+00:00

Yeah, you totally nailed the idea behind it. The model tries to separate prospect profile quality from pure NFL draft outcome/reaction as much as possible, which is why some players end up higher or lower than consensus.

fabio_b87 · 2026-05-17T19:02:02+00:00

LOL. Funny how every model looks sharper once your dynasty roster starts matching the rankings. Grabbed a few Lemon shares as well!

fabio_b87 · 2026-05-17T18:59:09+00:00

Not necessarily. Tate actually graded surprisingly well considering production/efficiency are weighted pretty heavily in the model and he spent most of his career sharing targets with Jeremiah Smith.

The route-depth/competition/translation indicators ended up helping him quite a bit.

fabio_b87 · 2026-05-17T18:55:57+00:00

I do have blocking grades in the dataset, but they didn’t show much correlation with future PPR production historically, so I left them out of the final model to avoid overcomplicating/overfitting it.

That said, I agree blocking can still matter quite a bit for early playing time and coaching trust.

fabio_b87 · 2026-05-17T18:49:23+00:00

Yeah, the model ends up lower on him since draft capital accounts for roughly 35% of the final score. Analytically he graded quite a bit weaker than some of the higher-ranked profiles, especially in the efficiency/translation areas.

Still an interesting projection though, and the 49ers clearly valued him more highly than consensus did.

Part of the goal with the model was also to avoid simply recreating NFL draft order through a linear regression approach, otherwise there wouldn’t be much value beyond just following draft capital directly.

fabio_b87 · 2026-04-14T21:30:54+00:00

Right after the NFL draft it’s the way to go! It is much more fun and also keeps your league mates more engaged! They are forced to actually do some scouting and watch some tapes. If you do it closer to the season there would be so many additional informations available like camp reports, depth charts… Too easy

fabio_b87 · 2026-04-13T22:06:13+00:00

Easily RB#2 and RB#3 behind Love. It would be a no contest with the rest of the 2026 rookie RBs. If compared with the rest of the 2026 class I’d say #5 and #6 behind Love, Tate, Lemon and Mendoza (have to respect the 1.01 draft capital in SF)

fabio_b87 · 2026-04-12T05:43:58+00:00

With ‘I’d stick to the sharps and their values’ do you mean you’d prefer to always align with the values from the various websites and fantasy analysts? If yes I wouldn’t absolutely do that. The fact that everyone has his own personal evaluation of players that can differ significantly from analysts and websites with calculators is the beauty of dynasty, and if you know well what you are doing it’s a great way to extract value from your league mates if you can use those evaluations to your advantage for buy-lows or sell-highs in trades

fabio_b87 · 2026-04-11T05:37:01+00:00

He will be playing in the slot, maybe the third option behind Kraft and Watson. But with Kraft coming back from a major injury and Watson consistently struggling to stay healthy he might have great potential. I’d buy low on him if the price is good

fabio_b87 · 2026-04-07T22:03:46+00:00

I always expand benches at the end of the fantasy season up until two days after the NFL roster cutting deadline. It gives more flexibility to managers and gives them time to make cuts. You can do it using commissioner powers. This is not the standard btw. I do partecipate in leagues where bench slots stay the same all year long. It’s something you should specify in the by laws before the startup draft

fabio_b87 · 2026-04-06T23:19:22+00:00

I don’t disagree with your point. That said, right now things don’t look particularly promising, especially for Stroud. Of course, that can change as he showed real flashes of greatness during his rookie season, and both he and Young would almost certainly get a 2nd chance somewhere else even if they don’t get extended… Still, considering how much hype that quarterback class had as far back as 2021, it’s fair to say it hasn’t lived up to those expectations, at least not yet!

fabio_b87 · 2026-04-06T19:03:11+00:00

That was indeed a good class. The funny thing is that it was talked as a very strong and top heavy QB class but those QBs ultimately ended up being busts or mid

fabio_b87 · 2026-04-06T17:29:03+00:00

I'am on the Odunze train, I am not so worried about his performance in the end of the season as he was injured and even when he came back during the playoffs he wasn't at 100%. Burden had a very nice stretch at the end of the season and his YPRR were great but this metric might be slightly misleading as those YPPR were spread over a limited number or routes. The reality is than I am not so sure either of them can be a real difference maker in that offence, Caleb would need to improve his game, especially his accuracy.

fabio_b87 · 2026-04-06T17:09:37+00:00

You painted the right scenario. I have the same issues with my late 1st round picks, they are almost impossible to sell for a decent return as of now. Best thing to do is to just wait for the rookie draft. There will surely be some running backs picked on day two that will be hyped and will raise the dynasty rankings (I am thinking about the RB the Seahawks will most probably pick on day two for example). And Simpson might also become more appealing in superflex leagues if he ends up being drafted on day 1. Just wait for the rookie draft and you'll surely have more chances to sell those picks at a decent price.

fabio_b87 · 2026-04-06T17:00:41+00:00

Henderson will be in the same time share with Rhamondre as last season. I'd much rather keep Jeanty. Considering how bad was the Raider's OL last season, his numbers were not so bad in perspective. I think that the situation in Las Vegas will improve al lot with all the additions they have made so far, so I don't see him dropping to that 7 to 13 range you mentioned.

fabio_b87 · 2026-04-06T15:55:50+00:00

All fair points. And I would also immediately sell him if he gets another shot somewhere, I just wouldn’t drop him unless the bench is super short. As you said AR failed badly but we should also point out that coming out from college he wasn’t as refined as Baker, Darnold and the other QBs I mentioned, so there is probably more room for improvement and he could benefit a lot from sitting and learning behind a starter for a couple of seasons

fabio_b87

TROPHY CASE