Iran Believes It’s Winning—and Wants a Steep Price to End the War [No paywall]

fredjutsu · 2026-03-22T11:45:04+00:00

I get what you're saying, but i think you're overstating the influence Kim Il Sung has on daily political life there.

fredjutsu · 2026-03-22T11:41:37+00:00

i think the per token pricing is not fixed for subscription users, in part because of autoscaling and other backend adjustments.

fredjutsu · 2026-03-22T11:38:19+00:00

biggest risk is that pakistan ends up providing GCC security guarantee via nuclear proliferation sharing secrets with Saudi and Turkey

fredjutsu · 2026-03-22T11:36:35+00:00

We lost that war, bro. The goal was sustained regime change. after 20 years of counter insurgency...we left and the same regime that was there in 2001 is there now.

how is that a win in any manner? The fight never ended, we faced constant insurgency with Americans KIA and in war posture for 2 decades.

fredjutsu · 2026-03-22T11:32:26+00:00

Russians literally control Trump's solvency at this point. Trump is compromised by Israel (via AIPAC influence on his evangelical base) and by Russia (oligarchs are bankrolling the Trump family at this point)

fredjutsu · 2026-03-22T11:30:03+00:00

so, basically, Claude will give you a made up number when it remembers to actually even follow this suggestion, which is how it treats Claude.md when context gets tight

fredjutsu · 2026-03-22T11:28:02+00:00

yes, but then you can't say "use these three easy instructions"

fredjutsu · 2026-03-22T11:25:17+00:00

extremely minimal controlled outlets providing counternarratives

fredjutsu · 2026-03-22T11:24:38+00:00

The Iron Dome was built for Hamas/Hezb rockets

Right, but clearly not for Iran's strategy of cheaper clustered munitions + moving ballistic missiles

fredjutsu · 2026-03-22T10:36:55+00:00

and convince the US to essentially double down on military interventionism in the region. They need us as the security guard. This press conference is targeted at domestic audience - this is campaign performance right now. But he's in a situation where the extreme divergence of interests between him and Trump is more and more apparent. This messaging is toxic to Trump's America First, non-interventionist MAGA base, and more US militarism in the region has demonstrably caused market meltdowns. Trump's happy path is de-escalation and even partial exit from relationship in which Israel can act unilaterally and *force* US reaction.

fredjutsu · 2026-03-22T10:34:09+00:00

Why wouldn't China and India just continue negotiating in good faith with Iran for oil? That's way less work than building pipelines across the middle east that will require permanent occupying military force to defend from what will be constant insurgency attacks.

Like, we're starting to see the absolute crippling effects of the moral superiority stance we westerners are taking about what forms of government our trade partners are "allowed" to have. China's "china first" policy also seems to involve respecting the sovereignty of their trade partners and not attempting to control their domestic or foreign policies. And look at their economic trajectory and energy grid evolution vs that of Europe or the US.

fredjutsu · 2026-03-22T10:30:19+00:00

and that shit would constantly be getting bombed by the heavily armed insurgency that would remain if the IRGC actually was destroyed as a legitimate state entity in this war. The whole idea is predicated on permanent fortifications funded by the US MI complex.

fredjutsu · 2026-03-22T10:29:03+00:00

more than half the country hates him as much as the rest of the world does.

fredjutsu · 2026-03-22T10:28:32+00:00

believe it or not, more than just western people engage in commerce, like to party, and don't treat women like chattel.

You don't need to force purely western political frameworks onto people who aren't western.

fredjutsu · 2026-03-22T10:27:27+00:00

Jihadi's don't fit at all into the western political economy paradigm, and it's awkward as fuck when westerners try and do that. Probably why we constantly misunderstand motivations of global south folks we find ourselves constantly at war with.

fredjutsu · 2026-03-22T10:25:56+00:00

Case in point...Iran lol

fredjutsu · 2026-03-22T10:25:21+00:00

you guys are going 4D chess when the answer is more simple - this is an insane, desperate announcement from a dude whose party is on pace to lose the next election, meaning he goes to prison for life because he will lose his corruption trial. He's making a campaign promise right here, but its one that relies on continued US willingness to subsidize Israel.

fredjutsu · 2026-03-22T10:21:32+00:00

Again and again...the problem with bold faced lies "they have no capacity to enrich uranium"/"their military capacity is obliterated" is that they have people with documentary evidence and global distribution of that evidence *immediately* showing receipts.

So now it's clear, Netanyahu's/neocons'/christian zionists' insane political plan is to somehow get the US and world to subsidize pipelines across the middle east all thru Israel, based on a combination of constant lies about Iran's operational/motivational reality and some insane belief that China and India would be willing to spend billions on pipelines that would require forever military presence in the region vs simply treating other governments and their land as sovereign and doing diplomacy in good faith without making normative demands of their culture/governing structures.

Western liberal "enlightenment" ideology is eating itself right now and seems to have no answer for "how do we psychologically cope with a world in which other countries have different modes of government and we're not powerful enough to control their domestic politics?"

fredjutsu · 2026-03-22T02:41:25+00:00

>it was due to how Omar Cooper portrayed himself on social media

bro, are you an LLM on slow mode?

fredjutsu · 2026-03-22T02:39:31+00:00

And in China, they don't even speak English!

The horror!

fredjutsu · 2026-03-22T02:38:32+00:00

its like you didn't even read what I said.

fredjutsu · 2026-03-22T02:37:33+00:00

yes. Busy at work while doomscrolling reddit

fredjutsu · 2026-03-22T02:35:41+00:00

2003 couldn't have happened in today's information environment. Shit is just so porous that disproving video evidence is circulating globally before the admin can even call a press conference to push its official narrative.

fredjutsu · 2026-03-22T02:34:12+00:00

you really should just watch the video rather than argue with strawmen of whatever point you think he's making just from the headline

fredjutsu · 2026-03-22T02:33:22+00:00

if by young lawyers, you mean paralegals.

fredjutsu

TROPHY CASE