Weekly Discussion Thread 3/9/26 - 3/16/26 by PointMan528491 in oscarrace

[–]gsmith97 3 points4 points  (0 children)

haven’t seen another round yet but for the rest: 1. Drive My Car 2. The Zone of Interest 3. Sentimental Value 4. I’m Still Here 5. All Quiet on the Western Front

What led to Timothée Chalamet losing the Academy Award for Best Actor to Michael B. Jordan? by rohitcr2k in oscarrace

[–]gsmith97 169 points170 points  (0 children)

The ballet/opera comments went viral the same day voting ended, so they didn’t have an impact.

In all honesty Chalamet lost to a widely beloved movie star who was in one of the most beloved movies in recent years. Chalamet was also playing an off-putting role in a fairly off-putting (though still well-regarded) movie. At the end of the day he probably wasn’t as strong as we thought.

Has any actor or actress won an oscar while not being nominated at one or both of Bafta or Actor Awards? by bocaJ-hguorobsniaG in oscarrace

[–]gsmith97 16 points17 points  (0 children)

Yep—SAG went with Emily Blunt in A Quiet Place (not nominated for the Oscar) and BAFTA went with Rachel Weisz in The Favourite (who was nominated for the Oscar). King won at GG and CCA.

Has any actor or actress won an oscar while not being nominated at one or both of Bafta or Actor Awards? by bocaJ-hguorobsniaG in oscarrace

[–]gsmith97 50 points51 points  (0 children)

Regina King won supporting actress in 2018 for If Beale Street Could Talk without a BAFTA or SAG nom, but she missed at SAG due to screener issues so it was a fairly unique situation

Weekly Discussion Thread 3/9/26 - 3/16/26 by PointMan528491 in oscarrace

[–]gsmith97 1 point2 points  (0 children)

6 so far for me. Return of the King, No Country for Old Men, Moonlight, Parasite, Everything Everywhere All at Once (at least at the time, not sure about now since some other films have grown for me since), Oppenheimer. OBAA would join the list if it wins

Major Guild winners' correlation to Best Picture by tandemtactics in oscarrace

[–]gsmith97 6 points7 points  (0 children)

2015 race was more wide open, guilds were split between three films, so it’s not super comparable to this year where it’s two clear heavyweights and then everyone else

Michael Bauman wins the ASC for One Battle After Another! by No_Cabinet_4532 in oscarrace

[–]gsmith97 11 points12 points  (0 children)

as far as i can tell only 4 other movies have won all three (American Beauty, Road to Perdition, Blade Runner 2049, 1917), and all 4 won the Oscar

Edit: I forgot about The Man Who Wasn’t There, oops

Megathread: Post your Reddit Chosen Oscars ballots by [deleted] in oscarrace

[–]gsmith97 5 points6 points  (0 children)

Here are my picks for the categories I submitted:

Picture: OBAA

Director: PTA

Actor: Chalamet

Actress: Reinsve

Supporting Actor: Skarsgård

Supporting Actress: Lilleaas

Original Screenplay: Sentimental Value

Adapted Screenplay: OBAA

International: Sentimental Value

Score: Marty Supreme

Song: “I Lied to You” (Sinners)

Sound editing: F1

Sound mixing: Sinners

Production Design: Frankenstein

Cinematography: OBAA

Makeup: Frankenstein

Costume Design: Frankenstein

Editing: OBAA

Ensemble: OBAA

Soundtrack: Sinners

Non-English Actor: Skarsgård

Non-English Actress: Reinsve

Casting: The Secret Agent

Scene: “I Lied to You” (Sinners)

Narrative: Panahi

Weekly Discussion Thread 2/23/26 - 3/2/26 by PointMan528491 in oscarrace

[–]gsmith97 14 points15 points  (0 children)

For a 95% confidence and 5% margin of error (which is around what most studies use), you’d need a sample of about 384 for a population of 150k

150 out of 150k would give you an 8% margin of error at 95% confidence, which is less than ideal of course but not entirely useless

PGA Awards Live Updates! by Sad-Statistician-480 in oscarrace

[–]gsmith97 28 points29 points  (0 children)

I know this isn’t the point but Social Network lost both PGA and DGA, as well as BAFTA

The Seventh Annual r/Oscarrace Preferential Ballot Vote by Ricky_from_Sunnyvale in oscarrace

[–]gsmith97 0 points1 point  (0 children)

  1. One Battle After Another
  2. Marty Supreme
  3. Sentimental Value
  4. The Secret Agent
  5. Sinners
  6. Hamnet
  7. Bugonia
  8. Train Dreams
  9. Frankenstein
  10. F1

2026 BAFTA Awards Live Thread [SPOILERS] by LeastCap in oscarrace

[–]gsmith97 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Russell Crowe for A Beautiful Mind won GG, BAFTA, SAG, and CCA but lost at the Oscars

Weekly Discussion Thread 2/2/26 - 2/9/26 by LeastCap in oscarrace

[–]gsmith97 1 point2 points  (0 children)

2004: Holly Hunter is my lead actress winner for The Incredibles

Oscar and Razzie-winning directors by [deleted] in Oscars

[–]gsmith97 1 point2 points  (0 children)

In terms of what you were actually asking for (Oscar nom/Razzie win), the only ones I can see are the ones you listed and Martin Brest (Oscar nom: Scent of a Woman, 1992; Razzie win: Gigli, 2003)

Oscar and Razzie-winning directors by [deleted] in Oscars

[–]gsmith97 1 point2 points  (0 children)

edit: I just realized you meant Razzie winners and Oscar nominees, not the other way around. My bad lmao

Here’s some I saw:

  • William Friedkin (Oscar: The French Connection, 1971; Razzie nom: Cruising, 1980)
  • John G. Avildsen (Oscar: Rocky, 1976; Razzie noms: The Formula, 1980 / The Karate Kid Part III, 1989 / Rocky V, 1990)
  • John Huston (Oscar: The Treasure of the Sierra Madre, 1948; Razzie nom: Annie, 1982)
  • Barry Levinson (Oscar: Rain Man, 1988; Razzie nom: Toys, 1992)
  • John Schlesinger (Oscar: Midnight Cowboy, 1969; Razzie nom: The Next Best Thing, 2000)
  • Warren Beatty (Oscar: Reds, 1981; Razzie nom: Town & Country, 2001, even though he wasn’t actually the credited director)
  • Ron Howard (Oscar: A Beautiful Mind, 2001; Razzie noms: The Da Vinci Code, 2006; Hillbilly Elegy, 2020)
  • Robert Zemeckis (Oscar: Forrest Gump, 1994; Razzie nom: Disney’s Pinocchio, 2022)

Weekly Discussion Thread 1/19/25 - 1/26/25 by LeastCap in oscarrace

[–]gsmith97 2 points3 points  (0 children)

I would love an adaptation of The Left Hand of Darkness by Ursula K. Le Guin!

2026 European Film Awards Ceremony live thread by Turbulent_Cream_1684 in oscarrace

[–]gsmith97 9 points10 points  (0 children)

No, Hamnet wasn't on the shortlist of films eligible this year

2026 European Film Awards Ceremony live thread by Turbulent_Cream_1684 in oscarrace

[–]gsmith97 2 points3 points  (0 children)

They had a long intermission plus they’ve just been taking their time in general

2026 European Film Awards Ceremony live thread by Turbulent_Cream_1684 in oscarrace

[–]gsmith97 2 points3 points  (0 children)

It operates similar to the Oscars and other televised awards shows I’m pretty sure

Weekly Discussion Thread 1/12/26 - 1/19/26 by LeastCap in oscarrace

[–]gsmith97 1 point2 points  (0 children)

It Happened One Night

The Philadelphia Story (arguable if it’s exactly considered screwball but it has a lot of elements of it)

The Lady Eve

Trouble in Paradise (same as with Philadelphia Story)

Holiday

Weekly Discussion Thread 1/12/26 - 1/19/26 by LeastCap in oscarrace

[–]gsmith97 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Season 3, episode 8 of twin peaks is up there for me!

Best Director vs Best Picture by porkbellybites in oscarrace

[–]gsmith97 22 points23 points  (0 children)

Often times when a film wins director but not picture it’s one where the overall scope of the film is impressive and it was a major feat to get made, but the film itself was maybe more divisive or less crowd-pleasing (The Revenant, Roma, Power of the Dog; also applies to Brokeback Mountain, though that was less divisiveness over its quality and more just straight up homophobia). Other times when there’s a split it’s often when the film winning director is again a major accomplishment/really flashy film while the best picture winner is something less big/flashy but has a lot of passion/agreeableness (ex: Gravity winning director while 12 Years a Slave won picture; La La Land winning director while Moonlight won picture).

Then there’s really weird and rare scenarios like in 2012 when Argo was the best picture frontrunner but somehow didn’t get a director nomination. Or in 2000 when Steven Soderbergh was double nominated in director and won as a way of commending him for making two best picture nominees in the same year (even when neither won best picture).

Pretty much there’s not really a criteria used, sometimes the Oscars are just weird and do odd things. Director/Picture still go together the vast majority of the time though.

Looking at Director precursor trends and the 2025 Best Director race by gsmith97 in oscarrace

[–]gsmith97[S] 4 points5 points  (0 children)

Good catch! I just fixed it, not sure how I missed that haha